Mark each card Accurate / Mixed / Incorrect as you manually backtest. Marks are saved in this browser only — export to keep a durable record or aggregate across days.
Generated: 2026-09-29 09:00 AM EDT America/New_York Price source: latest downloaded market price; timestamp-aware overrides only Final report filter: setup grades A+ and above, minimum T1 R:R 1:2.50 Entry-confirmation score is intentionally reserved for backtesting/trade review, not watchlist inclusion. Latest OHLCV bar seen: 2026-09-28 03:55 PM EDT (5M regular-session source) Latest price uses the newest downloaded bar for proximity; the Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so it trails the live tape by ~15-20 min. Zones are built from regular-session candles only. Candidates are excluded entirely while current price is inside any active zone because that state is unresolved consolidation/chop. Stale quote overrides are ignored when downloaded bars are newer.
Final setups
14
All candidates
178
Bullish / bearish
6 / 8
Avg. distance
2.06%
Market regime: SPY choppy · normal, QQQ transitional · normal Choppy — weak follow-through; be selective, take profit fast, size down. 📊 Scanner posture: Scanner edge is STRONGEST in this regime (backtest +0.16R, split-half stable). Lean into continuation/break setups and take the pop — but still demand a confirmation candle.
🎯 Primed — Top 5
Highest-conviction names by a composite of the signals that trend our way in testing — A+ grade, with the weekly trend, price near the zone, RSI momentum, validated-edge badge. A curated ranking, not a proven hard edge — tracked forward to see if it beats the rest on real results.
Name
Setup
Zone
T1 R:R
Primed
Why
AMZN
Supply Rejection — Puts → puts
$249.15–$250.93
1:4.19
8.0
weekly lean (ranging)near zone (sweet-spot)validated edgeR:R ≥2
META
Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls → calls
$750.36–$753.80
1:5.09
8.0
weekly lean (ranging)near zoneRSI momentumR:R ≥2
RKLB
Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls → calls
$75.86–$76.71
1:2.86
8.0
weekly lean (ranging)near zoneRSI momentumR:R ≥2
PLTR
Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls → calls
$181.10–$185.12
1:0.05
6.0
with trend (trending)near zone (sweet-spot)RSI momentumvalidated edgeweak R:R
SOFI
Supply Rejection — Puts → puts
$16.14–$16.19
1:5.91
6.0
with trend (trending)near zone (sweet-spot)R:R ≥2
🌙 Swing — Top 5
Best multi-day holds by the signals proven for far-target swings — a calm/ranging tape (the regime where these pay), with the weekly trend, directional volume, grade, and the far-target R:R. These reach a distant zone, so they need days, not one session — size and stops for a swing. A curated ranking, tracked forward.
✅ Confirmations that have worked (our backtests + trade review)
Before entry — only take it if:
On today's list and trading its direction (counter-scanner was 17% win / off-list −$7.4k).
Price on the with-trade side of the day's OPEN (calls above, puts below) — the one entry filter that separated your winners (43% vs 31%).
Setup carries a validated-edge badge — Steady momentum and/or Textbook geometry (the +0.30–0.55R cells).
Continuation or demand-bounce, not a rejection (your log: bounces 71% vs rejections 27%).
Breakouts only: daily RSI extended with the move (RSI ≥70 on supply breaks backtested 57% win / +0.35R).
Volume expanding in the trade's direction (VPA) — not absorption / being faded.
Managing the trade:
Hold the 2–3 hour thesis on a 20% stop (1–3hr holds won 56%; tighter stops got noise-clipped).
Take profit into the ~0.3-ATR pop — don't hold for +60% the move rarely reaches.
Move stop to breakeven once up ~⅓R (31% of losers were green first).
Not discriminating in your data (skip as "confirmation"): VWAP, raw volume, or 9EMA alone — the items above are what actually separated winners from losers.
Mag7 — Next-Day Signal Summary
Core names at a glance for tomorrow, whether or not they made the final list. 🟢 = setup carries a backtest-validated edge (Textbook geometry / Steady momentum — the strongest cells in the backtest); 🟡 = setup present, no validated edge; ⚪ = no setup near price.
Name
Signal / lean
Best next-day setup
Validated edge
Nearest S/D
Regime · Weekly · RS
AAPL $336.88
🟢 calls · trend-aligned
Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls → calls @ $326.60 · R:R 1:0.21 ★ final list zone $323.38–$326.60 · grade B
Steady mom.
S $339.75 / D $326.60
trending up · calm bullish wk · leading QQQ by +3.0% over 20d
AMZN $246.76
🟢 puts · trend-aligned
Supply Rejection — Puts → puts @ $249.15 · R:R 1:4.19 ★ final list zone $249.15–$250.93 · grade A+
Steady mom.
S $246.79 / D $229.31
ranging · calm bearish-leaning wk · lagging QQQ by -10.4% over 20d
GOOGL $342.59
🟡 calls
Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls → calls @ $345.56 · R:R 1:5.86 (developing) zone $344.60–$345.56 · grade B
Textbook
S $344.60 / D $342.46
choppy · normal bearish wk · lagging QQQ by -3.9% over 20d
META $723.49
🟡 calls · trend-aligned
Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls → calls @ $753.80 · R:R 1:5.09 ★ final list zone $750.36–$753.80 · grade A+
—
S $750.36 / D $712.53
choppy · volatile bullish wk · leading QQQ by +21.0% over 20d
MSFT $508.81
🟡 puts
Supply Rejection — Puts → puts @ $510.67 · R:R 1:2.95 (developing) zone $510.67–$512.49 · grade B
Steady mom.
S $510.67 / D $497.96
choppy · normal bullish wk · lagging QQQ by -3.6% over 20d
NVDA $230.49
🟡 calls · trend-aligned
Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls → calls @ $225.08 (developing) zone $223.55–$225.08 · grade B
Steady mom.
S — / D $225.08
trending up · calm bullish wk · leading QQQ by +2.4% over 20d
TSLA $359.15
🟡 puts
Supply Rejection — Puts → puts @ $371.45 · R:R 1:1.44 (developing) zone $371.45–$386.70 · grade B
Steady mom.
S $359.24 / D $319.53
ranging · calm bullish-leaning wk · lagging QQQ by -0.3% over 20d
📅 Events ahead (10 days)
Scheduled IV drivers — macro releases (whole market) and earnings (single-name). Earnings inflate a name's IV going in and crush it after, so don't hold a single option through the report; macro days are catalyst-momentum, not zone days.
Date
Event
IV note
2026-09-30 (tomorrow)
📊 MU earnings
Elevated IV into it, crush after — avoid holding a single-name option through it.
$246.76 as of 2026-09-29 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.97% • $2.39 • 0.44× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$5.41
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
41.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-10-05 (6 DTE) | swing 2026-10-12 (13 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-29 (30d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-10-05) and swing expiry (2026-10-12) land before the 2026-10-29 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
3H/90m/1H supply $249.15–$250.93
Tight core (where 4 zones align): $250.51–$250.77 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:4.19
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/3H/90m/1H demand @ 229.31
1:4.19
Fresh
T2
4H/3H/2H demand @ 225.23
1:5.17
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $249.15 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 3H supply zone at $249.15–$250.93 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $229.31, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: AMZN is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): AMZN weekly trend is bearish-leaning (price below its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 48.5).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY choppy · normal, QQQ transitional · normal • lagging QQQ by -10.4% over 20d (AMZN -7.6% vs QQQ +2.8%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 3.23x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $2.39 to reach the zone, $1.78 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $19.84 runway to the target -- 11.2:1. Below the validated reversal profile: the zone is thin relative to the target (11.2x -- a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway).
$723.49 as of 2026-09-29 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
4.19% • $30.31 • 0.97× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$31.25
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
60.9 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI extended in the trade direction (backtest: 39% win, +0.17 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-10-05 (6 DTE) | swing 2026-10-12 (13 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-28 (29d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-10-05) and swing expiry (2026-10-12) land before the 2026-10-28 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction below supply no trigger • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $750.36–$753.80
Tight core (where 5 zones align): $751.86–$753.80 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:5.09
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 771.31
1:5.09
Fresh
T2
1D supply @ 780.25
1:7.69
1 test
Calls confirmation checklist
□ 5M close above supply
□ hold/retest above zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ above 9EMA/VWAP
□ higher-high or higher-low structure
📈 Break Above Supply Zone @ $753.80 (Bullish): If price breaks above the 4H supply zone identified at $750.36–$753.80 and holds above the open, VWAP, and 9EMA, I'll watch for higher highs and strong bullish structure. If volume confirms the breakout, I'll consider entering a call position. My target will be the 4H supply zone identified at $771.31, holding the trade as long as price continues to respect the 9EMA as support.
Daily trend: META is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): META weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 59.2).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY choppy · normal, QQQ transitional · normal • leading QQQ by +21.0% over 20d (META +23.8% vs QQQ +2.8%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 1.53x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $30.31 approach to the trigger, $3.44 zone thickness (the stop), $17.51 runway to the next zone -- 5.1:1 at the trigger, 1.53x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.97x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 1.53x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers.
$766.81 as of 2026-09-29 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
1.15% • $8.82 • 1.25× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$7.04
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
50.5 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI neutral -- no momentum tailwind (backtest: 33% win, -0.02 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-10-05 (6 DTE) | swing 2026-10-12 (13 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
none upcoming
No earnings on the calendar for this name (normal for ETFs), so no IV-crush exposure to price in.
Volume / movement context
high volume above demand no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/90m/1H demand $757.97–$761.69
Tight core (where 5 zones align): $760.68–$760.86 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:2.82
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 747.49
1:2.82
Fresh
T2
2H/1H demand @ 740.48
1:4.70
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ 5M close below demand
□ hold/retest below zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ below 9EMA/VWAP
□ lower-low or lower-high structure
📉 Break Below Demand $757.97 (Bearish): If we BREAK below the 1D demand zone below $757.97 and prices maintain below the open price, holding the 9EMA & VWAP as resistance and forming lower lows, I'll be closely monitoring the strength of the market for potential continuation to the downside. I'll be interested in playing it short, targeting the 4H demand zone identified at $747.49, holding below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: SPY is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): SPY weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 60.3).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY choppy · normal, QQQ transitional · normal • lagging QQQ by -3.3% over 20d (SPY -0.5% vs QQQ +2.8%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 2.74x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $8.84 approach to the trigger, $3.72 zone thickness (the stop), $10.48 runway to the next zone -- 2.8:1 at the trigger, 2.74x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 1.25x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 2.74x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers.
$73.25 as of 2026-09-29 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
4.72% • $3.46 • 0.92× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$3.77
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
55.7 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI extended in the trade direction (backtest: 39% win, +0.17 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-10-02 (3 DTE) | swing 2026-10-16 (17 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-09 (41d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-10-02) and swing expiry (2026-10-16) land before the 2026-11-09 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume below supply no trigger • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $75.86–$76.71
Tight core (where 7 zones align): $76.10–$76.37 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:2.86
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 79.14
1:2.86
Fresh
T2
4H/3H/2H supply @ 81.81
1:6.00
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ 5M close above supply
□ hold/retest above zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ above 9EMA/VWAP
□ higher-high or higher-low structure
📈 Break Above Supply Zone @ $76.71 (Bullish): If price breaks above the 4H supply zone identified at $75.86–$76.71 and holds above the open, VWAP, and 9EMA, I'll watch for higher highs and strong bullish structure. If volume confirms the breakout, I'll consider entering a call position. My target will be the 4H supply zone identified at $79.14, holding the trade as long as price continues to respect the 9EMA as support.
Daily trend: RKLB is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): RKLB weekly trend is bullish-leaning (price above its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 48.2).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY choppy · normal, QQQ transitional · normal • leading QQQ by +9.3% over 20d (RKLB +12.1% vs QQQ +2.8%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 1.56x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $3.46 approach to the trigger, $0.85 zone thickness (the stop), $2.43 runway to the next zone -- 2.9:1 at the trigger, 1.56x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.92x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 1.56x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers.
$143.82 as of 2026-09-29 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.51% • $0.73 • 0.10× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$7.16
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
54.9 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-10-02 (3 DTE) | swing 2026-10-16 (17 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-03 (35d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-10-02) and swing expiry (2026-10-16) land before the 2026-11-03 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction approaching supply grinding • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/90m/1H supply $144.56–$151.28
Tight core (where 9 zones align): $148.75–$149.09 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.71
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/3H/2H/90m demand @ 138.56
1:0.71
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 130.83
1:1.74
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $144.56 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 1D supply zone at $144.56–$151.28 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $138.56, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: SHOP is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): SHOP weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 56.9).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY choppy · normal, QQQ transitional · normal • lagging QQQ by -8.6% over 20d (SHOP -5.8% vs QQQ +2.8%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.81x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.74 to reach the zone, $6.72 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $6.00 runway to the target -- 0.9:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $138.56 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$187.50 as of 2026-09-29 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
1.27% • $2.38 • 0.42× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$5.73
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
61.0 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-10-02 (3 DTE) | swing 2026-10-16 (17 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-02 (34d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-10-02) and swing expiry (2026-10-16) land before the 2026-11-02 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume above demand no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $181.10–$185.12
Tight core (where 10 zones align): $181.27–$181.50 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.05
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/1H supply @ 187.85
1:0.05
Fresh
T2
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 191.25
1:0.59
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $185.12 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 1D demand zone identified at $181.10–$185.12. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 4H supply zone identified at $187.85, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: PLTR is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): PLTR weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 62.1).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY choppy · normal, QQQ transitional · normal • lagging QQQ by -2.2% over 20d (PLTR +0.6% vs QQQ +2.8%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 3.06x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $2.38 to reach the zone, $4.02 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $2.73 runway to the target -- 0.7:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $187.85 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$187.50 as of 2026-09-29 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.19% • $0.36 • 0.06× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$5.73
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
61.0 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-10-02 (3 DTE) | swing 2026-10-16 (17 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-02 (34d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-10-02) and swing expiry (2026-10-16) land before the 2026-11-02 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume below supply no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/1H supply $187.85–$190.25
Tight core (where 3 zones align): $188.80–$188.85 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.87
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 185.12
1:0.87
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 177.64
1:3.59
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $187.85 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 4H supply zone at $187.85–$190.25 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $185.12, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: PLTR is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): PLTR weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 62.1).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY choppy · normal, QQQ transitional · normal • lagging QQQ by -2.2% over 20d (PLTR +0.6% vs QQQ +2.8%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.72x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.35 to reach the zone, $2.40 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $2.73 runway to the target -- 1.1:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $185.12 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$257.95 as of 2026-09-29 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.11% • $5.44 • 0.43× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$12.63
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
64.8 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-10-02 (3 DTE) | swing 2026-10-16 (17 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-12-01 (63d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-10-02) and swing expiry (2026-10-16) land before the 2026-12-01 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume approaching demand grinding • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $244.70–$252.50
Tight core (where 12 zones align): $246.20–$246.73 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.12
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/2H/90m/1H supply @ 259.51
1:0.12
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $252.50 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 1D demand zone identified at $244.70–$252.50. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 1D supply zone identified at $259.51, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: CRWD is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): CRWD weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 71.8).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY choppy · normal, QQQ transitional · normal • leading QQQ by +15.9% over 20d (CRWD +18.7% vs QQQ +2.8%)
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $5.45 to reach the zone, $7.80 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $7.01 runway to the target -- 0.9:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $259.51 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$85.40 as of 2026-09-29 08:30 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
3.31% • $2.83 • 0.59× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$4.81
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
72.6 (overbought)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-10-02 (3 DTE) | swing 2026-10-16 (17 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-03 (35d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-10-02) and swing expiry (2026-10-16) land before the 2026-11-03 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume approaching supply grinding • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D supply $88.22–$97.31
Tight core (where 5 zones align): $93.36–$93.38 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.04
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 84.92
1:0.04
Fresh
T2
1H demand @ 77.87
1:0.63
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $88.22 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 1D supply zone at $88.22–$97.31 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $84.92, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: TEM is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): TEM weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 65.6).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY choppy · normal, QQQ transitional · normal • leading QQQ by +30.0% over 20d (TEM +32.9% vs QQQ +2.8%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.56x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $2.82 to reach the zone, $9.09 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $3.30 runway to the target -- 0.4:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $84.92 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$85.40 as of 2026-09-29 08:30 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.59% • $0.50 • 0.10× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$4.81
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
72.6 (overbought)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-10-02 (3 DTE) | swing 2026-10-16 (17 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-03 (35d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-10-02) and swing expiry (2026-10-16) land before the 2026-11-03 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume approaching supply grinding • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1H supply $85.90–$86.44
T1 R:R
1:0.46
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 84.92
1:0.46
Fresh
T2
1H demand @ 77.87
1:7.22
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $85.90 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 1H supply zone at $85.90–$86.44 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $84.92, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: TEM is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): TEM weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 65.6).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY choppy · normal, QQQ transitional · normal • leading QQQ by +30.0% over 20d (TEM +32.9% vs QQQ +2.8%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.56x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.50 to reach the zone, $0.54 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $0.98 runway to the target -- 1.8:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $84.92 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$336.88 as of 2026-09-29 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
3.05% • $10.27 • 1.52× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$6.75
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
61.8 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-10-05 (6 DTE) | swing 2026-10-12 (13 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-29 (30d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-10-05) and swing expiry (2026-10-12) land before the 2026-10-29 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible approaching demand grinding • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/2H/90m demand $323.38–$326.60
Tight core (where 3 zones align): $323.38–$325.29 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.21
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 339.75
1:0.21
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $326.60 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 4H demand zone identified at $323.38–$326.60. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 1D supply zone identified at $339.75, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: AAPL is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): AAPL weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 65.3).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY choppy · normal, QQQ transitional · normal • leading QQQ by +3.0% over 20d (AAPL +5.8% vs QQQ +2.8%)
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $10.28 to reach the zone, $3.22 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $13.15 runway to the target -- 4.1:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $13.15 to $339.75 -- a long 4.1:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.
📉 SOFI — Supply Rejection — Puts
Setup Grade BSwing-onlyReversal: 1:3 runwayPuts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$16.08 as of 2026-09-29 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.37% • $0.06 • 0.10× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$0.63
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
36.7 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-10-02 (3 DTE) | swing 2026-10-16 (17 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-27 (28d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-10-02) and swing expiry (2026-10-16) land before the 2026-10-27 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume approaching supply with strength • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
2H supply $16.14–$16.19
T1 R:R
1:5.91
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 15.43
1:5.91
3 tests
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $16.14 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 2H supply zone at $16.14–$16.19 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $15.43, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: SOFI is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): SOFI weekly trend is bearish-leaning (price below its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 40.6).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY choppy · normal, QQQ transitional · normal • lagging QQQ by -14.6% over 20d (SOFI -11.8% vs QQQ +2.8%)
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $0.06 to reach the zone, $0.05 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $0.71 runway to the target -- 14.2:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $0.71 to $15.43 -- a long 14.2:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.
📉 NFLX — Supply Rejection — Puts
Setup Grade BSwing-onlyReversal: 1:3 runwayPuts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$70.07 as of 2026-09-29 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
4.61% • $3.23 • 1.58× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$2.05
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
33.4 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-10-02 (3 DTE) | swing 2026-10-16 (17 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-20 (21d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-10-02) and swing expiry (2026-10-16) land before the 2026-10-20 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible approaching supply with strength • gap between zones
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $73.30–$73.87
Tight core (where 7 zones align): $73.64–$73.69 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.19
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 69.36
1:0.19
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $73.30 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 4H supply zone at $73.30–$73.87 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $69.36, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: NFLX is in a bearish daily trend (Bearish LH/LL), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): NFLX weekly trend is bearish (price below its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 34.7).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY choppy · normal, QQQ transitional · normal • lagging QQQ by -18.1% over 20d (NFLX -15.3% vs QQQ +2.8%)
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $3.23 to reach the zone, $0.57 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $3.94 runway to the target -- 6.9:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $3.94 to $69.36 -- a long 6.9:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.
$42.00 as of 2026-09-29 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
1.86% • $0.78 • 0.29× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$2.67
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
41.7 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-10-02 (3 DTE) | swing 2026-10-16 (17 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-29 (30d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-10-02) and swing expiry (2026-10-16) land before the 2026-10-29 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction approaching demand with weakness • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1H demand $40.91–$41.22
T1 R:R
1:0.60
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1H supply @ 42.65
1:0.60
Fresh
T2
90m supply @ 43.09
1:1.00
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $41.22 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 1H demand zone identified at $40.91–$41.22. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 1H supply zone identified at $42.65, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: RBLX is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): RBLX weekly trend is bullish-leaning (price above its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 44.1).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY choppy · normal, QQQ transitional · normal • leading QQQ by +5.8% over 20d (RBLX +8.6% vs QQQ +2.8%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.66x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.78 to reach the zone, $0.31 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $1.43 runway to the target -- 4.6:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $1.43 to $42.65 -- a long 4.6:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.