Mark each card Accurate / Mixed / Incorrect as you manually backtest. Marks are saved in this browser only — export to keep a durable record or aggregate across days.
Generated: 2026-09-07 08:29 PM EDT America/New_York Price source: latest downloaded market price; timestamp-aware overrides only Final report filter: setup grades A+ and above, minimum T1 R:R 1:2.50 Entry-confirmation score is intentionally reserved for backtesting/trade review, not watchlist inclusion. Latest OHLCV bar seen: 2026-09-04 03:55 PM EDT (5M regular-session source) Latest price uses the newest downloaded bar for proximity; the Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so it trails the live tape by ~15-20 min. Zones are built from regular-session candles only. Candidates are excluded entirely while current price is inside any active zone because that state is unresolved consolidation/chop. Stale quote overrides are ignored when downloaded bars are newer.
✅ Confirmations that have worked (our backtests + trade review)
Before entry — only take it if:
On today's list and trading its direction (counter-scanner was 17% win / off-list −$7.4k).
Price on the with-trade side of the day's OPEN (calls above, puts below) — the one entry filter that separated your winners (43% vs 31%).
Setup carries a validated-edge badge — Steady momentum and/or Textbook geometry (the +0.30–0.55R cells).
Continuation or demand-bounce, not a rejection (your log: bounces 71% vs rejections 27%).
Breakouts only: daily RSI extended with the move (RSI ≥70 on supply breaks backtested 57% win / +0.35R).
Volume expanding in the trade's direction (VPA) — not absorption / being faded.
Managing the trade:
Hold the 2–3 hour thesis on a 20% stop (1–3hr holds won 56%; tighter stops got noise-clipped).
Take profit into the ~0.3-ATR pop — don't hold for +60% the move rarely reaches.
Move stop to breakeven once up ~⅓R (31% of losers were green first).
Not discriminating in your data (skip as "confirmation"): VWAP, raw volume, or 9EMA alone — the items above are what actually separated winners from losers.
Mag7 — Next-Day Signal Summary
Core names at a glance for tomorrow, whether or not they made the final list. 🟢 = setup carries a backtest-validated edge (Textbook geometry / Steady momentum — the strongest cells in the backtest); 🟡 = setup present, no validated edge; ⚪ = no setup near price.
Name
Signal / lean
Best next-day setup
Validated edge
Nearest S/D
Regime · Weekly · RS
AAPL $320.01
🟢 calls · trend-aligned
Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls → calls @ $317.15 · R:R 1:0.13 ★ final list zone $312.18–$317.15 · grade B
TextbookSteady mom.
S $321.02 / D $317.15
transitional · normal bullish wk · leading QQQ by +2.7% over 20d
AMZN $258.30
🟡 calls · trend-aligned
Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls → calls @ $255.19 · R:R 1:0.06 (developing) zone $251.93–$255.19 · grade B
Textbook
S $258.65 / D $257.34
ranging · calm bullish wk · lagging QQQ by -5.3% over 20d
$499.41 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.46% • $2.30 • 0.23× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$10.09
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
59.4 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI extended in the trade direction (backtest: 39% win, +0.17 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-28 (51d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-28 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
90m/1H supply $499.94–$501.73
Tight core (where 4 zones align): $500.90–$500.91 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:4.23
Supply bottom / risk area
$499.94
Supply top / breakout
$501.73
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 509.31
1:4.23
Fresh
T2
1H supply @ 516.47
1:8.23
Fresh
T3
1D supply @ 541.55
1:22.25
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ 5M close above supply
□ hold/retest above zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ above 9EMA/VWAP
□ higher-high or higher-low structure
📈 Break Above Supply Zone @ $501.73 (Bullish): If price breaks above the 90m supply zone identified at $499.94–$501.73 and holds above the open, VWAP, and 9EMA, I'll watch for higher highs and strong bullish structure. If volume confirms the breakout, I'll consider entering a call position. My target will be the 1D supply zone identified at $509.31, holding the trade as long as price continues to respect the 9EMA as support.
Daily trend: MSFT is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): MSFT weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 62.3).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +0.5% over 20d (MSFT -0.1% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.69x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $2.32 approach to the trigger, $1.79 zone thickness (the stop), $7.58 runway to the next zone -- 4.2:1 at the trigger, 0.98x daily ATR total. Textbook day-trade geometry: short approach, day-sized move, and runway well past the stop (backtest: +0.30 avg R vs +0.05 for everything else).
📈 PANW — Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls
Setup Grade A+Textbook geometryCalls
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$333.35 as of 2026-09-04 07:45 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.73% • $2.43 • 0.12× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$20.46
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
43.5 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI leaning against the break (backtest: 32% win, +0.09 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-19 (73d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-19 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
3H/2H/1H supply $333.43–$335.77
Tight core (where 3 zones align): $333.70–$334.00 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:6.00
Supply bottom / risk area
$333.43
Supply top / breakout
$335.77
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/2H/90m supply @ 359.97
1:10.34
Fresh
T2
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 380.12
1:18.95
Fresh
T3
1D/90m supply @ 394.12
1:24.94
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ 5M close above supply
□ hold/retest above zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ above 9EMA/VWAP
□ higher-high or higher-low structure
📈 Break Above Supply Zone @ $335.77 (Bullish): If price breaks above the 3H supply zone identified at $333.43–$335.77 and holds above the open, VWAP, and 9EMA, I'll watch for higher highs and strong bullish structure. If volume confirms the breakout, I'll consider entering a call position. My target will be the 4H supply zone identified at $359.97, holding the trade as long as price continues to respect the 9EMA as support.
Daily trend: PANW is in a bearish daily trend (Bearish LH/LL), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): PANW weekly trend is bearish-leaning (price below its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 59.1).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -7.8% over 20d (PANW -8.4% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 2.29x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $2.42 approach to the trigger, $2.34 zone thickness (the stop), $24.20 runway to the next zone -- 10.3:1 at the trigger, 1.30x daily ATR total. Textbook day-trade geometry: short approach, day-sized move, and runway well past the stop (backtest: +0.30 avg R vs +0.05 for everything else).
📈 INTC — Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls
Setup Grade A+Steady momentumCalls
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$95.89 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
1.06% • $1.02 • 0.24× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$4.25
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
51.7 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI neutral -- no momentum tailwind (backtest: 33% win, -0.02 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-22 (45d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-22 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume approaching supply with strength • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/1H supply $95.97–$96.91
T1 R:R
1:6.00
Supply bottom / risk area
$95.97
Supply top / breakout
$96.91
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 103.14
1:6.63
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 109.58
1:13.48
Fresh
T3
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 112.33
1:16.40
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ 5M close above supply
□ hold/retest above zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ above 9EMA/VWAP
□ higher-high or higher-low structure
📈 Break Above Supply Zone @ $96.91 (Bullish): If price breaks above the 4H supply zone identified at $95.97–$96.91 and holds above the open, VWAP, and 9EMA, I'll watch for higher highs and strong bullish structure. If volume confirms the breakout, I'll consider entering a call position. My target will be the 1D supply zone identified at $103.14, holding the trade as long as price continues to respect the 9EMA as support.
Daily trend: INTC is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading above its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): INTC weekly trend is bearish-leaning (price below its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 52.8).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -5.2% over 20d (INTC -5.8% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 1.71x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $1.02 approach to the trigger, $0.94 zone thickness (the stop), $6.23 runway to the next zone -- 6.6:1 at the trigger, 1.71x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the full move is 1.71x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers. Prior momentum: steady and aligned with the trade direction -- the backtest's best continuation profile (+0.55 avg R when paired with textbook geometry).
📉 CRM — Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts
Setup Grade A+Steady momentumPuts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$259.40 as of 2026-09-04 07:50 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
3.58% • $9.29 • 0.81× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$11.46
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
76.6 (overbought)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI leaning against the break (backtest: 32% win, +0.09 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-12-02 (86d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-12-02 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction approaching demand grinding • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/1H demand $250.11–$252.51
Tight core (where 2 zones align): $251.72–$251.96 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:6.00
Demand top / risk area
$252.51
Demand bottom / breakdown
$250.11
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 206.11
1:18.33
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 198.41
1:21.54
Fresh
T3
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 188.99
1:25.47
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ 5M close below demand
□ hold/retest below zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ below 9EMA/VWAP
□ lower-low or lower-high structure
📉 Break Below Demand $250.11 (Bearish): If we BREAK below the 4H demand zone below $250.11 and prices maintain below the open price, holding the 9EMA & VWAP as resistance and forming lower lows, I'll be closely monitoring the strength of the market for potential continuation to the downside. I'll be interested in playing it short, targeting the 1D demand zone identified at $206.11, holding below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: CRM is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): CRM weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 70.8).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +35.1% over 20d (CRM +34.5% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 4.65x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $9.29 approach to the trigger, $2.40 zone thickness (the stop), $44.00 runway to the next zone -- 18.3:1 at the trigger, 4.65x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.81x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 4.65x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers. Prior momentum: steady and aligned with the trade direction -- the backtest's best continuation profile (+0.55 avg R when paired with textbook geometry).
📉 COST — Supply Rejection — Puts
Setup Grade A+Puts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$916.00 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
1.02% • $9.34 • 0.52× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$18.04
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
38.1 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-09-24 (17d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-09-24 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $925.35–$935.76
Tight core (where 11 zones align): $930.32–$930.76 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:2.78
Supply top / failure
$935.76
Supply bottom / rejection
$925.35
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D demand @ 861.14
1:2.78
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $925.35 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 1D supply zone at $925.35–$935.76 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $861.14, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: COST is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): COST weekly trend is bearish (price below its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 40.1).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -2.8% over 20d (COST -3.4% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 3.04x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $9.35 to reach the zone, $10.41 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $64.21 runway to the target -- 6.2:1. Below the validated reversal profile: the zone is thin relative to the target (6.2x -- a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway); the approach is sideways, not the grinding pace that preceded the holds that worked.
📈 NFLX — Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls
Setup Grade A+Calls
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$78.32 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
1.62% • $1.27 • 0.54× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$2.33
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
49.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI neutral -- no momentum tailwind (backtest: 33% win, -0.02 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-20 (43d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-20 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume rejecting from supply • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
2H/90m/1H supply $78.99–$79.59
Tight core (where 4 zones align): $79.00–$79.17 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:3.53
Supply bottom / risk area
$78.99
Supply top / breakout
$79.59
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 81.71
1:3.53
Fresh
T2
3H/2H supply @ 84.05
1:7.43
Fresh
T3
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 85.72
1:10.22
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ 5M close above supply
□ hold/retest above zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ above 9EMA/VWAP
□ higher-high or higher-low structure
📈 Break Above Supply Zone @ $79.59 (Bullish): If price breaks above the 2H supply zone identified at $78.99–$79.59 and holds above the open, VWAP, and 9EMA, I'll watch for higher highs and strong bullish structure. If volume confirms the breakout, I'll consider entering a call position. My target will be the 1D supply zone identified at $81.71, holding the trade as long as price continues to respect the 9EMA as support.
Daily trend: NFLX is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): NFLX weekly trend is bullish-leaning (price above its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 43.5).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +6.1% over 20d (NFLX +5.5% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 2.46x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $1.27 approach to the trigger, $0.60 zone thickness (the stop), $2.12 runway to the next zone -- 3.5:1 at the trigger, 1.46x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.55x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 1.46x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers.
📉 AVGO — Supply Rejection — Puts
Setup Grade A+Puts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$357.07 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.01% • $0.04 • 0.00× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$11.55
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
38.0 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-12-09 (93d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-12-09 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
3H/2H/90m supply $357.09–$360.30
Tight core (where 3 zones align): $358.67–$359.40 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:6.00
Supply top / failure
$360.30
Supply bottom / rejection
$357.09
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 333.97
1:7.15
Fresh
T2
1D/3H/1H demand @ 315.06
1:13.00
Fresh
T3
2H demand @ 309.42
1:14.75
2 tests
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $357.09 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 3H supply zone at $357.09–$360.30 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $333.97, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: AVGO is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): AVGO weekly trend is bearish-leaning (price below its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 46.5).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -15.8% over 20d (AVGO -16.3% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 2.0x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.02 to reach the zone, $3.21 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $23.12 runway to the target -- 7.2:1. Below the validated reversal profile: the zone is thin relative to the target (7.2x -- a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway); the approach is sideways, not the grinding pace that preceded the holds that worked.
📉 MSFT — Supply Rejection — Puts
Setup Grade A+Puts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$499.41 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.11% • $0.55 • 0.05× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$10.09
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
59.4 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-28 (51d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-28 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
90m/1H supply $499.94–$501.73
Tight core (where 4 zones align): $500.90–$500.91 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:3.41
Supply top / failure
$501.73
Supply bottom / rejection
$499.94
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 491.50
1:3.41
1 test
T2
4H/3H demand @ 486.96
1:5.37
Fresh
T3
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 484.13
1:6.59
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $499.94 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 90m supply zone at $499.94–$501.73 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $491.50, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: MSFT is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): MSFT weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 62.3).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +0.5% over 20d (MSFT -0.1% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.51x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.53 to reach the zone, $1.79 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $8.44 runway to the target -- 4.7:1. Below the validated reversal profile: the zone is thin relative to the target (4.7x -- a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway); the approach is sideways, not the grinding pace that preceded the holds that worked.
📉 META — Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts
Setup Grade A+Puts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$615.20 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
1.15% • $7.07 • 0.38× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$18.70
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
62.4 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI leaning against the break (backtest: 32% win, +0.09 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-28 (51d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-28 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible above demand no trigger • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $608.10–$612.90
Tight core (where 5 zones align): $608.72–$609.50 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:2.88
Demand top / risk area
$612.90
Demand bottom / breakdown
$608.10
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 594.28
1:2.88
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 581.46
1:5.55
Fresh
T3
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 566.46
1:8.68
2 tests
Puts confirmation checklist
□ 5M close below demand
□ hold/retest below zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ below 9EMA/VWAP
□ lower-low or lower-high structure
📉 Break Below Demand $608.10 (Bearish): If we BREAK below the 4H demand zone below $608.10 and prices maintain below the open price, holding the 9EMA & VWAP as resistance and forming lower lows, I'll be closely monitoring the strength of the market for potential continuation to the downside. I'll be interested in playing it short, targeting the 4H demand zone identified at $594.28, holding below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: META is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): META weekly trend is bullish-leaning (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 50.8).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +4.7% over 20d (META +4.2% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.8x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $7.10 approach to the trigger, $4.80 zone thickness (the stop), $13.82 runway to the next zone -- 2.9:1 at the trigger, 1.12x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.38x daily ATR before entry.
📈 HOOD — Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls
Setup Grade A+Calls
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$122.12 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.26% • $2.76 • 0.37× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$7.38
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
65.9 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI extended in the trade direction (backtest: 39% win, +0.17 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-04 (58d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-04 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume rejecting from supply • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/2H/90m/1H supply $123.00–$124.88
Tight core (where 5 zones align): $123.86–$124.41 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:5.52
Supply bottom / risk area
$123.00
Supply top / breakout
$124.88
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D supply @ 135.26
1:5.52
Fresh
T2
1D supply @ 144.80
1:10.60
Fresh
T3
1D supply @ 150.51
1:13.63
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ 5M close above supply
□ hold/retest above zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ above 9EMA/VWAP
□ higher-high or higher-low structure
📈 Break Above Supply Zone @ $124.88 (Bullish): If price breaks above the 4H supply zone identified at $123.00–$124.88 and holds above the open, VWAP, and 9EMA, I'll watch for higher highs and strong bullish structure. If volume confirms the breakout, I'll consider entering a call position. My target will be the 1D supply zone identified at $135.26, holding the trade as long as price continues to respect the 9EMA as support.
Daily trend: HOOD is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): HOOD weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 62.1).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +31.5% over 20d (HOOD +30.9% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 1.78x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $2.76 approach to the trigger, $1.88 zone thickness (the stop), $10.38 runway to the next zone -- 5.5:1 at the trigger, 1.78x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.37x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 1.78x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers.
📈 QQQ — Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls
Setup Grade A+Calls
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$717.50 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.61% • $4.38 • 0.53× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$8.26
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
53.6 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI neutral -- no momentum tailwind (backtest: 33% win, -0.02 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
none upcoming
No earnings on the calendar for this name (normal for ETFs), so no IV-crush exposure to price in.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m supply $719.35–$721.86
T1 R:R
1:3.18
Supply bottom / risk area
$719.35
Supply top / breakout
$721.86
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 729.85
1:3.18
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 735.76
1:5.54
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ 5M close above supply
□ hold/retest above zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ above 9EMA/VWAP
□ higher-high or higher-low structure
📈 Break Above Supply Zone @ $721.86 (Bullish): If price breaks above the 4H supply zone identified at $719.35–$721.86 and holds above the open, VWAP, and 9EMA, I'll watch for higher highs and strong bullish structure. If volume confirms the breakout, I'll consider entering a call position. My target will be the 1D supply zone identified at $729.85, holding the trade as long as price continues to respect the 9EMA as support.
Daily trend: QQQ is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): QQQ weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 58.7).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +0.0% over 20d (QQQ -0.6% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 1.5x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $4.36 approach to the trigger, $2.51 zone thickness (the stop), $7.99 runway to the next zone -- 3.2:1 at the trigger, 1.50x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.53x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 1.50x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers.
📉 NVDA — Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts
Setup Grade A+Puts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$229.49 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.51% • $5.76 • 0.76× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$7.62
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
60.4 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI leaning against the break (backtest: 32% win, +0.09 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-17 (71d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-17 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction above demand no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/2H/90m demand $223.73–$224.96
T1 R:R
1:4.38
Demand top / risk area
$224.96
Demand bottom / breakdown
$223.73
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 218.34
1:4.38
Fresh
T2
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 211.05
1:10.31
Fresh
T3
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 200.81
1:18.63
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ 5M close below demand
□ hold/retest below zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ below 9EMA/VWAP
□ lower-low or lower-high structure
📉 Break Below Demand $223.73 (Bearish): If we BREAK below the 4H demand zone below $223.73 and prices maintain below the open price, holding the 9EMA & VWAP as resistance and forming lower lows, I'll be closely monitoring the strength of the market for potential continuation to the downside. I'll be interested in playing it short, targeting the 1D demand zone identified at $218.34, holding below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: NVDA is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): NVDA weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 62.1).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +3.4% over 20d (NVDA +2.9% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 2.42x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $5.76 approach to the trigger, $1.23 zone thickness (the stop), $5.39 runway to the next zone -- 4.4:1 at the trigger, 1.46x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.76x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 1.46x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers.
📉 PANW — Supply Rejection — Puts
Setup Grade A+Puts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$333.35 as of 2026-09-04 07:45 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.02% • $0.07 • 0.00× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$20.46
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
43.5 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-19 (73d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-19 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
3H/2H/1H supply $333.43–$335.77
Tight core (where 3 zones align): $333.70–$334.00 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:6.00
Supply top / failure
$335.77
Supply bottom / rejection
$333.43
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/3H/90m demand @ 315.33
1:7.45
Fresh
T2
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 299.04
1:14.18
Fresh
T3
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 293.56
1:16.44
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $333.43 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 3H supply zone at $333.43–$335.77 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $315.33, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: PANW is in a bearish daily trend (Bearish LH/LL), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): PANW weekly trend is bearish-leaning (price below its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 59.1).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -7.8% over 20d (PANW -8.4% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.68x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.08 to reach the zone, $2.34 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $18.10 runway to the target -- 7.7:1. Below the validated reversal profile: the zone is thin relative to the target (7.7x -- a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway); the approach is sideways, not the grinding pace that preceded the holds that worked.
📈 MSTR — Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls
Setup Grade A+Reversal: 1:3 runwayCalls
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$142.58 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.40% • $0.57 • 0.06× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$10.08
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
66.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-29 (52d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-29 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible approaching demand with weakness • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
2H/90m/1H demand $141.58–$142.00
Tight core (where 3 zones align): $141.70–$141.90 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:5.91
Demand bottom / failure
$141.58
Demand top / hold area
$142.00
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/1H supply @ 148.47
1:5.91
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 157.85
1:15.32
Fresh
T3
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 175.50
1:33.03
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $142.00 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 2H demand zone identified at $141.58–$142.00. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 1D supply zone identified at $148.47, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: MSTR is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): MSTR weekly trend is bullish-leaning (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 52.5).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +43.3% over 20d (MSTR +42.8% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.52x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.58 to reach the zone, $0.42 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $6.47 runway to the target -- 15.4:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $6.47 to $148.47 -- a long 15.4:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.
$320.01 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.89% • $2.85 • 0.38× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$7.43
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
53.9 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-29 (52d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-29 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume above demand no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $312.18–$317.15
Tight core (where 16 zones align): $313.37–$313.48 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.13
Demand bottom / failure
$312.18
Demand top / hold area
$317.15
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
2H/90m supply @ 321.02
1:0.13
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 324.87
1:0.62
Fresh
T3
1D supply @ 340.03
1:2.56
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $317.15 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 4H demand zone identified at $312.18–$317.15. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 2H supply zone identified at $321.02, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: AAPL is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): AAPL weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 60.2).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +2.7% over 20d (AAPL +2.1% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 2.69x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $2.86 to reach the zone, $4.97 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $3.87 runway to the target -- 0.8:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $321.02 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$174.40 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.19% • $0.33 • 0.04× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$8.24
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
54.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-02 (56d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-02 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible above demand no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $168.18–$174.07
Tight core (where 9 zones align): $169.23–$169.46 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.07
Demand bottom / failure
$168.18
Demand top / hold area
$174.07
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
2H supply @ 174.84
1:0.07
Fresh
T2
1H supply @ 176.06
1:0.27
Fresh
T3
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 179.92
1:0.89
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $174.07 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 1D demand zone identified at $168.18–$174.07. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 2H supply zone identified at $174.84, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: PLTR is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): PLTR weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 59.6).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +1.9% over 20d (PLTR +1.3% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $0.33 to reach the zone, $5.89 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $0.77 runway to the target -- 0.1:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $174.84 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$184.80 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
3.97% • $7.34 • 0.55× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$13.25
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
56.4 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-29 (52d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-29 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume above demand no trigger • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $166.11–$177.47
Tight core (where 12 zones align): $172.03–$172.44 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.27
Demand bottom / failure
$166.11
Demand top / hold area
$177.47
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 189.81
1:0.27
Fresh
T2
3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 211.98
1:1.45
Fresh
T3
90m/1H supply @ 224.46
1:2.12
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $177.47 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 1D demand zone identified at $166.11–$177.47. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 1D supply zone identified at $189.81, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: COIN is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): COIN weekly trend is bullish-leaning (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 52.4).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +20.8% over 20d (COIN +20.2% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 2.05x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $7.33 to reach the zone, $11.36 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $12.34 runway to the target -- 1.1:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $189.81 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$144.80 as of 2026-09-04 07:35 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.31% • $0.45 • 0.09× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$4.95
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
52.0 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-03 (57d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-03 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible above demand no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $142.83–$144.35
Tight core (where 5 zones align): $143.17–$143.31 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.47
Demand bottom / failure
$142.83
Demand top / hold area
$144.35
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1H supply @ 145.72
1:0.47
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m supply @ 146.73
1:0.98
1 test
T3
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 152.90
1:4.11
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $144.35 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 4H demand zone identified at $142.83–$144.35. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 1H supply zone identified at $145.72, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: SHOP is in a bearish daily trend (Bearish LH/LL), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): SHOP weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 58.5).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -3.7% over 20d (SHOP -4.3% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.64x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.45 to reach the zone, $1.52 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $1.37 runway to the target -- 0.9:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $145.72 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$141.24 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.67% • $0.95 • 0.14× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$6.72
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
61.0 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-28 (51d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-28 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume approaching demand grinding • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $135.20–$140.30
Tight core (where 10 zones align): $136.63–$136.72 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.06
Demand bottom / failure
$135.20
Demand top / hold area
$140.30
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1H supply @ 141.62
1:0.06
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 142.90
1:0.27
Fresh
T3
3H/90m/1H supply @ 147.22
1:0.99
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $140.30 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 1D demand zone identified at $135.20–$140.30. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 1H supply zone identified at $141.62, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: NOW is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): NOW weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 62.0).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +13.7% over 20d (NOW +13.1% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $0.94 to reach the zone, $5.10 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $1.32 runway to the target -- 0.3:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $141.62 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$144.80 as of 2026-09-04 07:35 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
1.33% • $1.93 • 0.39× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$4.95
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
52.0 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-03 (57d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-03 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible below supply no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m supply $146.73–$151.28
Tight core (where 5 zones align): $147.37–$147.99 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.07
Supply top / failure
$151.28
Supply bottom / rejection
$146.73
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 144.35
1:0.07
Fresh
T2
4H/3H/90m/1H demand @ 140.50
1:0.66
Fresh
T3
2H/90m/1H demand @ 120.89
1:3.69
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $146.73 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 1D supply zone at $146.73–$151.28 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $144.35, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: SHOP is in a bearish daily trend (Bearish LH/LL), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): SHOP weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 58.5).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -3.7% over 20d (SHOP -4.3% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 4.83x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $1.93 to reach the zone, $4.55 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $2.38 runway to the target -- 0.5:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $144.35 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$252.42 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.36% • $0.91 • 0.06× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$14.16
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
48.0 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-04 (58d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-04 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction below supply no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/2H supply $253.32–$267.69
Tight core (where 3 zones align): $255.50–$258.50 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.05
Supply top / failure
$267.69
Supply bottom / rejection
$253.32
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
2H demand @ 251.73
1:0.05
Fresh
T2
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 243.68
1:0.57
Fresh
T3
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 239.06
1:0.88
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $253.32 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 1D supply zone at $253.32–$267.69 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $251.73, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: ARM is in a bearish daily trend (Bearish LH/LL), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): ARM weekly trend is bearish-leaning (price below its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 50.8).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -10.2% over 20d (ARM -10.8% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $0.90 to reach the zone, $14.37 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $1.59 runway to the target -- 0.1:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $251.73 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$252.42 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.27% • $0.68 • 0.05× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$14.16
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
48.0 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-04 (58d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-04 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction above demand no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
2H demand $249.90–$251.73
T1 R:R
1:0.36
Demand bottom / failure
$249.90
Demand top / hold area
$251.73
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/2H supply @ 253.32
1:0.36
1 test
T2
1H supply @ 271.41
1:7.53
Fresh
T3
90m/1H supply @ 274.13
1:8.61
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $251.73 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 2H demand zone identified at $249.90–$251.73. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 1D supply zone identified at $253.32, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: ARM is in a bearish daily trend (Bearish LH/LL), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): ARM weekly trend is bearish-leaning (price below its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 50.8).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -10.2% over 20d (ARM -10.8% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.53x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.69 to reach the zone, $1.83 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $1.59 runway to the target -- 0.9:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $253.32 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$174.40 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.25% • $0.44 • 0.05× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$8.24
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
54.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-02 (56d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-02 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible below supply no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
2H/1H supply $174.84–$175.28
T1 R:R
1:0.37
Supply top / failure
$175.28
Supply bottom / rejection
$174.84
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 174.07
1:0.37
Fresh
T2
1D/3H/2H demand @ 156.18
1:20.68
Fresh
T3
4H/90m/1H demand @ 125.89
1:55.05
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $174.84 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 2H supply zone at $174.84–$175.28 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $174.07, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: PLTR is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): PLTR weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 59.6).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +1.9% over 20d (PLTR +1.3% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 2.21x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.44 to reach the zone, $0.44 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $0.77 runway to the target -- 1.8:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $174.07 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$64.40 as of 2026-09-04 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
3.90% • $2.51 • 0.80× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$3.15
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
37.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-11 (4 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (11 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-09 (63d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-11) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-09 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible approaching supply grinding • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/1H supply $66.91–$67.75
Tight core (where 6 zones align): $67.47–$67.57 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.12
Supply top / failure
$67.75
Supply bottom / rejection
$66.91
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 63.99
1:0.12
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/2H/1H demand @ 62.55
1:0.55
Fresh
T3
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 57.36
1:2.10
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $66.91 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 1D supply zone at $66.91–$67.75 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $63.99, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: RKLB is in a bearish daily trend (Bearish LH/LL), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): RKLB weekly trend is bearish (price below its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 44.1).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -21.9% over 20d (RKLB -22.4% vs QQQ -0.6%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 2.24x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $2.51 to reach the zone, $0.84 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $2.92 runway to the target -- 3.5:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $2.92 to $63.99 -- a long 3.5:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.
Developing Scenario Watchlist
Symbol
Contract
Scenario
Status
Setup Grade
Distance
T1 R:R
R:R Range Summary
Freshness
Confirmation Checklist
COIN
Calls
Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls
At zone: needs confirmation
B
0.02%
1:3.94
T1 1:3.94 → T3 1:31.23
One successful retest (1 tests)
Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
INTC
Calls
Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls
Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R
B
0.05%
1:0.13
T1 1:0.13 → T3 1:13.34
One successful retest (1 tests)
Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
ARM
Calls
Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls
Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R
B
0.07%
1:1.62
T1 1:1.62 → T3 1:33.15
Multiple retests (3 tests)
Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure