Mark each card Accurate / Mixed / Incorrect as you manually backtest. Marks are saved in this browser only — export to keep a durable record or aggregate across days.
Generated: 2026-09-02 07:43 PM EDT America/New_York Price source: latest downloaded market price; timestamp-aware overrides only Final report filter: setup grades A+ and above, minimum T1 R:R 1:2.50 Entry-confirmation score is intentionally reserved for backtesting/trade review, not watchlist inclusion. Latest OHLCV bar seen: 2026-09-02 03:55 PM EDT (5M regular-session source) Latest price uses the newest downloaded bar for proximity; the Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so it trails the live tape by ~15-20 min. Zones are built from regular-session candles only. Candidates are excluded entirely while current price is inside any active zone because that state is unresolved consolidation/chop. Stale quote overrides are ignored when downloaded bars are newer.
✅ Confirmations that have worked (our backtests + trade review)
Before entry — only take it if:
On today's list and trading its direction (counter-scanner was 17% win / off-list −$7.4k).
Price on the with-trade side of the day's OPEN (calls above, puts below) — the one entry filter that separated your winners (43% vs 31%).
Setup carries a validated-edge badge — Steady momentum and/or Textbook geometry (the +0.30–0.55R cells).
Continuation or demand-bounce, not a rejection (your log: bounces 71% vs rejections 27%).
Breakouts only: daily RSI extended with the move (RSI ≥70 on supply breaks backtested 57% win / +0.35R).
Volume expanding in the trade's direction (VPA) — not absorption / being faded.
Managing the trade:
Hold the 2–3 hour thesis on a 20% stop (1–3hr holds won 56%; tighter stops got noise-clipped).
Take profit into the ~0.3-ATR pop — don't hold for +60% the move rarely reaches.
Move stop to breakeven once up ~⅓R (31% of losers were green first).
Not discriminating in your data (skip as "confirmation"): VWAP, raw volume, or 9EMA alone — the items above are what actually separated winners from losers.
Mag7 — Next-Day Signal Summary
Core names at a glance for tomorrow, whether or not they made the final list. 🟢 = setup carries a backtest-validated edge (Textbook geometry / Steady momentum — the strongest cells in the backtest); 🟡 = setup present, no validated edge; ⚪ = no setup near price.
Name
Signal / lean
Best next-day setup
Validated edge
Nearest S/D
Regime · Weekly · RS
AAPL $324.71
🟡 calls · trend-aligned
Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls → calls @ $317.15 · R:R 1:1.22 (developing) zone $312.18–$317.15 · grade B
—
S $340.03 / D $317.15
transitional · normal bullish wk · leading QQQ by +5.6% over 20d
AMZN $256.01
🟢 calls · trend-aligned
Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls → calls @ $254.92 · R:R 1:0.92 ★ final list zone $251.93–$254.92 · grade B
TextbookSteady mom.
S $259.77 / D $254.92
ranging · calm bullish wk · lagging QQQ by -5.4% over 20d
GOOGL $338.15
🟡 calls
Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls → calls @ $336.00 · R:R 1:0.99 (developing) zone $330.34–$336.00 · grade B
Textbook
S $345.90 / D $336.00
ranging · calm bearish-leaning wk · lagging QQQ by -5.9% over 20d
META $596.77
🟡 calls · trend-aligned
Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls → calls @ $581.46 · R:R 1:1.03 (developing) zone $568.02–$581.46 · grade B
Steady mom.
S $626.45 / D $592.97
trending · normal bullish-leaning wk · leading QQQ by +1.8% over 20d
MSFT $497.82
🟢 calls · trend-aligned
Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls → calls @ $496.45 · R:R 1:0.68 ★ final list zone $493.34–$496.45 · grade B
TextbookSteady mom.
S $500.88 / D $496.45
ranging · calm bullish wk · leading QQQ by +3.0% over 20d
NVDA $225.09
🟢 puts
Supply Rejection — Puts → puts @ $226.10 · R:R 1:1.05 ★ final list zone $226.10–$231.50 · grade B
TextbookSteady mom.
S $226.10 / D $218.34
choppy · normal bullish wk · leading QQQ by +3.5% over 20d
TSLA $356.63
🟡 puts
Supply Rejection — Puts → puts @ $365.78 · R:R 1:3.02 ★ final list zone $365.78–$368.92 · grade A+
—
S $358.40 / D $319.53
choppy · normal bullish-leaning wk · leading QQQ by +12.2% over 20d
$356.63 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.57% • $9.17 • 0.69× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$13.32
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
53.5 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-09 (7 DTE) | swing 2026-09-16 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-21 (49d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-09) and swing expiry (2026-09-16) land before the 2026-10-21 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction approaching supply with strength • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/2H/90m/1H supply $365.78–$368.92
Tight core (where 4 zones align): $367.42–$368.92 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:3.02
Supply top / failure
$368.92
Supply bottom / rejection
$365.78
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 319.53
1:3.02
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 311.21
1:3.70
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $365.78 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 4H supply zone at $365.78–$368.92 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $319.53, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: TSLA is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): TSLA weekly trend is bullish-leaning (price above its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 46.5).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +12.2% over 20d (TSLA +11.0% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 2.78x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $9.15 to reach the zone, $3.14 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $46.25 runway to the target -- 14.7:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $46.25 to $319.53 -- a long 14.7:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.
📉 AMZN — Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts
Setup Grade A+Puts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$256.01 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
1.59% • $4.07 • 0.69× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$5.90
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
46.4 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI neutral -- no momentum tailwind (backtest: 33% win, -0.02 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-09 (7 DTE) | swing 2026-09-16 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-29 (57d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-09) and swing expiry (2026-09-16) land before the 2026-10-29 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible above demand no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $251.93–$254.92
Tight core (where 10 zones align): $254.21–$254.39 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:6.00
Demand top / risk area
$254.92
Demand bottom / breakdown
$251.93
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/3H/90m/1H demand @ 229.31
1:7.57
Fresh
T2
4H/3H/2H demand @ 225.23
1:8.93
Fresh
T3
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 221.79
1:10.08
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ 5M close below demand
□ hold/retest below zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ below 9EMA/VWAP
□ lower-low or lower-high structure
📉 Break Below Demand $251.93 (Bearish): If we BREAK below the 1D demand zone below $251.93 and prices maintain below the open price, holding the 9EMA & VWAP as resistance and forming lower lows, I'll be closely monitoring the strength of the market for potential continuation to the downside. I'll be interested in playing it short, targeting the 1D demand zone identified at $229.31, holding below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: AMZN is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): AMZN weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 52.6).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -5.4% over 20d (AMZN -6.5% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 4.53x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $4.08 approach to the trigger, $2.99 zone thickness (the stop), $22.62 runway to the next zone -- 7.6:1 at the trigger, 4.53x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.69x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 4.53x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers.
📈 MSFT — Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls
Setup Grade A+Calls
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$497.82 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.86% • $4.28 • 0.45× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$9.57
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
60.8 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI extended in the trade direction (backtest: 39% win, +0.17 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-09 (7 DTE) | swing 2026-09-16 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-28 (56d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-09) and swing expiry (2026-09-16) land before the 2026-10-28 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction below supply no trigger • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $500.88–$502.08
Tight core (where 5 zones align): $501.15–$501.79 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:6.00
Supply bottom / risk area
$500.88
Supply top / breakout
$502.08
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 509.31
1:6.03
Fresh
T2
1H supply @ 516.47
1:11.99
Fresh
T3
1D supply @ 541.55
1:32.89
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ 5M close above supply
□ hold/retest above zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ above 9EMA/VWAP
□ higher-high or higher-low structure
📈 Break Above Supply Zone @ $502.08 (Bullish): If price breaks above the 4H supply zone identified at $500.88–$502.08 and holds above the open, VWAP, and 9EMA, I'll watch for higher highs and strong bullish structure. If volume confirms the breakout, I'll consider entering a call position. My target will be the 1D supply zone identified at $509.31, holding the trade as long as price continues to respect the 9EMA as support.
Daily trend: MSFT is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): MSFT weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 61.6).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +3.0% over 20d (MSFT +1.9% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.95x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $4.26 approach to the trigger, $1.20 zone thickness (the stop), $7.23 runway to the next zone -- 6.0:1 at the trigger, 1.20x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.45x daily ATR before entry.
📉 RKLB — Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts
Setup Grade A+Puts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$64.06 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
3.56% • $2.28 • 0.65× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$3.50
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
34.5 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI extended in the trade direction (backtest: 39% win, +0.17 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-09 (68d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-09 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible bouncing from demand • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/2H/1H demand $61.78–$62.55
Tight core (where 5 zones align): $62.12–$62.23 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:5.74
Demand top / risk area
$62.55
Demand bottom / breakdown
$61.78
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 57.36
1:5.74
Fresh
T2
1D demand @ 56.10
1:7.38
Fresh
T3
1D demand @ 49.05
1:16.53
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ 5M close below demand
□ hold/retest below zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ below 9EMA/VWAP
□ lower-low or lower-high structure
📉 Break Below Demand $61.78 (Bearish): If we BREAK below the 1D demand zone below $61.78 and prices maintain below the open price, holding the 9EMA & VWAP as resistance and forming lower lows, I'll be closely monitoring the strength of the market for potential continuation to the downside. I'll be interested in playing it short, targeting the 4H demand zone identified at $57.36, holding below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: RKLB is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): RKLB weekly trend is bearish (price below its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 43.7).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -14.5% over 20d (RKLB -15.7% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 1.91x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $2.28 approach to the trigger, $0.77 zone thickness (the stop), $4.42 runway to the next zone -- 5.7:1 at the trigger, 1.91x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.65x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 1.91x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers. Prior momentum caution: the recent multi-day move has been impulsive -- backtest shows these average ~0.0 R even when aligned; the move tends to have spent itself.
📉 SHOP — Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts
Setup Grade A+Puts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$142.00 as of 2026-09-02 07:15 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
1.93% • $2.74 • 0.54× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$5.11
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
49.0 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI neutral -- no momentum tailwind (backtest: 33% win, -0.02 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-03 (62d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-03 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction bouncing from demand • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/90m/1H demand $139.26–$140.50
Tight core (where 5 zones align): $139.94–$140.42 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:6.00
Demand top / risk area
$140.50
Demand bottom / breakdown
$139.26
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
2H/90m/1H demand @ 120.89
1:14.81
Fresh
T2
4H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 117.80
1:17.31
Fresh
T3
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 114.24
1:20.18
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ 5M close below demand
□ hold/retest below zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ below 9EMA/VWAP
□ lower-low or lower-high structure
📉 Break Below Demand $139.26 (Bearish): If we BREAK below the 4H demand zone below $139.26 and prices maintain below the open price, holding the 9EMA & VWAP as resistance and forming lower lows, I'll be closely monitoring the strength of the market for potential continuation to the downside. I'll be interested in playing it short, targeting the 2H demand zone identified at $120.89, holding below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: SHOP is in a bearish daily trend (Bearish LH/LL), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): SHOP weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 56.8).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -0.5% over 20d (SHOP -1.6% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 4.13x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $2.74 approach to the trigger, $1.24 zone thickness (the stop), $18.37 runway to the next zone -- 14.8:1 at the trigger, 4.13x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.54x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 4.13x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers.
📉 QQQ — Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts
Setup Grade A+Puts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$708.96 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
1.37% • $9.71 • 1.21× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$8.00
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
47.6 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI neutral -- no momentum tailwind (backtest: 33% win, -0.02 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-08 (6 DTE) | swing 2026-09-16 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
none upcoming
No earnings on the calendar for this name (normal for ETFs), so no IV-crush exposure to price in.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible above demand no trigger • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $699.27–$700.38
Tight core (where 6 zones align): $699.40–$699.80 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:3.04
Demand top / risk area
$700.38
Demand bottom / breakdown
$699.27
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1H demand @ 695.90
1:3.04
Fresh
T2
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 689.68
1:8.64
Fresh
T3
90m/1H demand @ 684.79
1:13.05
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ 5M close below demand
□ hold/retest below zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ below 9EMA/VWAP
□ lower-low or lower-high structure
📉 Break Below Demand $699.27 (Bearish): If we BREAK below the 4H demand zone below $699.27 and prices maintain below the open price, holding the 9EMA & VWAP as resistance and forming lower lows, I'll be closely monitoring the strength of the market for potential continuation to the downside. I'll be interested in playing it short, targeting the 1H demand zone identified at $695.90, holding below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: QQQ is in a bearish daily trend (Bearish LH/LL), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): QQQ weekly trend is bearish-leaning (price below its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 56.2).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +0.0% over 20d (QQQ -1.1% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 1.63x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $9.69 approach to the trigger, $1.11 zone thickness (the stop), $3.37 runway to the next zone -- 3.0:1 at the trigger, 1.63x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 1.21x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 1.63x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers.
📉 COST — Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts
Setup Grade A+Puts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$928.31 as of 2026-09-02 07:20 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.27% • $21.07 • 1.21× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$17.35
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
42.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups. Momentum: RSI extended in the trade direction (backtest: 39% win, +0.17 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-09-24 (22d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-09-24 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume above demand no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $907.21–$924.88
Tight core (where 19 zones align): $911.33–$911.99 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:2.61
Demand top / risk area
$924.88
Demand bottom / breakdown
$907.21
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D demand @ 861.14
1:2.61
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ 5M close below demand
□ hold/retest below zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ below 9EMA/VWAP
□ lower-low or lower-high structure
📉 Break Below Demand $907.21 (Bearish): If we BREAK below the 1D demand zone below $907.21 and prices maintain below the open price, holding the 9EMA & VWAP as resistance and forming lower lows, I'll be closely monitoring the strength of the market for potential continuation to the downside. I'll be interested in playing it short, targeting the 1D demand zone identified at $861.14, holding below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: COST is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): COST weekly trend is bearish (price below its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 42.3).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -0.3% over 20d (COST -1.4% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 3.87x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $21.10 approach to the trigger, $17.67 zone thickness (the stop), $46.07 runway to the next zone -- 2.6:1 at the trigger, 3.87x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 1.22x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 3.87x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers.
📉 SMCI — Supply Rejection — Puts
Setup Grade A+Puts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$36.55 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
1.72% • $0.63 • 0.30× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$2.12
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
56.3 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-03 (62d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-03 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume below supply no trigger • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $37.18–$37.49
Tight core (where 7 zones align): $37.37–$37.44 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:4.82
Supply top / failure
$37.49
Supply bottom / rejection
$37.18
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 32.02
1:4.82
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 28.78
1:8.27
Fresh
T3
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 25.48
1:11.78
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $37.18 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 4H supply zone at $37.18–$37.49 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $32.02, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: SMCI is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): SMCI weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 55.1).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +23.2% over 20d (SMCI +22.0% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 2.13x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.63 to reach the zone, $0.31 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $5.16 runway to the target -- 16.6:1. Below the validated reversal profile: the zone is thin relative to the target (16.6x -- a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway); the approach is sideways, not the grinding pace that preceded the holds that worked.
📉 TEM — Supply Rejection — Puts
Setup Grade A+Puts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$61.81 as of 2026-09-02 07:10 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.91% • $0.56 • 0.10× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$5.62
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
54.3 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-03 (62d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-03 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/2H/90m/1H supply $62.37–$64.55
Tight core (where 6 zones align): $64.00–$64.34 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:4.28
Supply top / failure
$64.55
Supply bottom / rejection
$62.37
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m demand @ 50.07
1:4.28
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 46.70
1:5.51
Fresh
T3
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 44.18
1:6.43
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $62.37 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 1D supply zone at $62.37–$64.55 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $50.07, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: TEM is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): TEM weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 54.9).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +33.8% over 20d (TEM +32.6% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 2.09x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.56 to reach the zone, $2.18 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $12.30 runway to the target -- 5.6:1. Below the validated reversal profile: the zone is thin relative to the target (5.6x -- a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway); the approach is sideways, not the grinding pace that preceded the holds that worked.
$928.31 as of 2026-09-02 07:20 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.21% • $1.95 • 0.11× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$17.35
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
42.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-09-24 (22d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-09-24 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
2H/90m/1H supply $930.30–$935.76
Tight core (where 5 zones align): $933.25–$933.94 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.46
Supply top / failure
$935.76
Supply bottom / rejection
$930.30
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 924.88
1:0.46
Fresh
T2
1D demand @ 861.14
1:9.02
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $930.30 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 2H supply zone at $930.30–$935.76 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $924.88, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: COST is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): COST weekly trend is bearish (price below its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 42.3).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -0.3% over 20d (COST -1.4% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 3.87x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $1.99 to reach the zone, $5.46 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $5.42 runway to the target -- 1.0:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $924.88 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$256.01 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.43% • $1.10 • 0.19× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$5.90
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
46.4 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-09 (7 DTE) | swing 2026-09-16 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-29 (57d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-09) and swing expiry (2026-09-16) land before the 2026-10-29 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible above demand no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $251.93–$254.92
Tight core (where 10 zones align): $254.21–$254.39 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.92
Demand bottom / failure
$251.93
Demand top / hold area
$254.92
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/2H/90m/1H supply @ 259.77
1:0.92
Fresh
T2
4H/3H/2H/1H supply @ 264.44
1:2.07
Fresh
T3
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 267.24
1:2.75
1 test
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $254.92 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 1D demand zone identified at $251.93–$254.92. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 1D supply zone identified at $259.77, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: AMZN is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): AMZN weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 52.6).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -5.4% over 20d (AMZN -6.5% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.9x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $1.09 to reach the zone, $2.99 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $4.85 runway to the target -- 1.6:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $259.77 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$928.31 as of 2026-09-02 07:20 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.37% • $3.43 • 0.20× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$17.35
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
42.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-09-24 (22d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-09-24 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume above demand no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $907.21–$924.88
Tight core (where 19 zones align): $911.33–$911.99 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.09
Demand bottom / failure
$907.21
Demand top / hold area
$924.88
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
2H/90m/1H supply @ 930.30
1:0.09
Fresh
T2
4H/2H/90m supply @ 938.45
1:0.48
Fresh
T3
1D/3H/90m/1H supply @ 943.89
1:0.74
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $924.88 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 1D demand zone identified at $907.21–$924.88. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 2H supply zone identified at $930.30, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: COST is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): COST weekly trend is bearish (price below its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 42.3).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -0.3% over 20d (COST -1.4% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $3.43 to reach the zone, $17.67 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $5.42 runway to the target -- 0.3:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $930.30 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$225.09 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.45% • $1.01 • 0.14× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$7.17
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
56.7 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-09 (7 DTE) | swing 2026-09-16 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-17 (76d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-09) and swing expiry (2026-09-16) land before the 2026-11-17 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume below supply no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/2H/90m/1H supply $226.10–$231.50
Tight core (where 9 zones align): $228.53–$228.98 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:1.05
Supply top / failure
$231.50
Supply bottom / rejection
$226.10
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 218.34
1:1.05
Fresh
T2
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 211.05
1:2.19
Fresh
T3
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 200.81
1:3.79
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $226.10 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 4H supply zone at $226.10–$231.50 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $218.34, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: NVDA is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): NVDA weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 60.0).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +3.5% over 20d (NVDA +2.4% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.96x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $1.01 to reach the zone, $5.40 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $7.76 runway to the target -- 1.4:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $218.34 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$175.18 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
3.44% • $6.03 • 0.51× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$11.84
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
53.3 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-29 (57d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-29 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $181.21–$199.87
Tight core (where 29 zones align): $195.43–$195.47 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.09
Supply top / failure
$199.87
Supply bottom / rejection
$181.21
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 173.00
1:0.09
1 test
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 148.18
1:1.09
Fresh
T3
4H/2H/1H demand @ 140.93
1:1.39
3 tests
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $181.21 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 1D supply zone at $181.21–$199.87 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $173.00, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: COIN is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): COIN weekly trend is bullish-leaning (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 49.6).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +17.8% over 20d (COIN +16.7% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 2.28x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $6.03 to reach the zone, $18.66 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $8.21 runway to the target -- 0.4:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $173.00 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$123.09 as of 2026-09-02 07:20 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
3.83% • $4.71 • 0.54× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$8.75
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
57.7 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-29 (57d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-29 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $127.80–$139.78
Tight core (where 14 zones align): $138.06–$138.18 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.17
Supply top / failure
$139.78
Supply bottom / rejection
$127.80
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 120.28
1:0.17
1 test
T2
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 112.33
1:0.64
Fresh
T3
90m/1H demand @ 103.56
1:1.17
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $127.80 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 1D supply zone at $127.80–$139.78 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $120.28, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: MSTR is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): MSTR weekly trend is bullish-leaning (price above its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 46.2).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +26.4% over 20d (MSTR +25.2% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 2.23x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $4.71 to reach the zone, $11.98 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $7.52 runway to the target -- 0.6:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $120.28 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$175.18 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
1.24% • $2.17 • 0.18× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$11.84
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
53.3 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-29 (57d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-29 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume above demand no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/1H demand $166.11–$173.00
Tight core (where 5 zones align): $170.64–$172.44 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.05
Demand bottom / failure
$166.11
Demand top / hold area
$173.00
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/2H/90m supply @ 175.67
1:0.05
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 181.21
1:0.66
Fresh
T3
3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 211.98
1:4.06
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $173.00 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 1D demand zone identified at $166.11–$173.00. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 4H supply zone identified at $175.67, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: COIN is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): COIN weekly trend is bullish-leaning (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 49.6).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +17.8% over 20d (COIN +16.7% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 3.11x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $2.18 to reach the zone, $6.89 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $2.67 runway to the target -- 0.4:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $175.67 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$37.77 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
3.97% • $1.50 • 0.56× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$2.67
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
41.9 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-11-04 (63d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-11-04 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible below supply no trigger • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $39.27–$40.55
Tight core (where 8 zones align): $39.76–$39.80 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.41
Supply top / failure
$40.55
Supply bottom / rejection
$39.27
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 36.63
1:0.41
Fresh
T2
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 35.05
1:0.98
Fresh
T3
90m demand @ 32.59
1:1.86
1 test
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $39.27 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 4H supply zone at $39.27–$40.55 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $36.63, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: IONQ is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): IONQ weekly trend is bearish (price below its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 44.8).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -4.6% over 20d (IONQ -5.7% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.94x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $1.50 to reach the zone, $1.28 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $2.64 runway to the target -- 2.1:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $36.63 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$175.18 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.28% • $0.49 • 0.04× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$11.84
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
53.3 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-29 (57d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-29 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/2H/90m supply $175.67–$178.40
Tight core (where 3 zones align): $177.00–$177.43 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.68
Supply top / failure
$178.40
Supply bottom / rejection
$175.67
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 173.00
1:0.68
1 test
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 148.18
1:8.39
Fresh
T3
4H/2H/1H demand @ 140.93
1:10.64
3 tests
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $175.67 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 4H supply zone at $175.67–$178.40 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $173.00, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: COIN is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): COIN weekly trend is bullish-leaning (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 49.6).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +17.8% over 20d (COIN +16.7% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 2.28x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.49 to reach the zone, $2.73 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $2.67 runway to the target -- 1.0:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $173.00 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$17.83 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.22% • $0.04 • 0.04× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$0.88
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
48.8 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-27 (55d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-27 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume above demand no trigger • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
3H/90m demand $17.68–$17.79
T1 R:R
1:1.47
Demand bottom / failure
$17.68
Demand top / hold area
$17.79
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
90m supply @ 18.05
1:1.47
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 18.77
1:6.27
Fresh
T3
2H/90m/1H supply @ 19.88
1:13.67
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $17.79 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 3H demand zone identified at $17.68–$17.79. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 90m supply zone identified at $18.05, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: SOFI is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): SOFI weekly trend is bearish-leaning (price below its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 47.9).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -1.1% over 20d (SOFI -2.2% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 2.32x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.04 to reach the zone, $0.11 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $0.26 runway to the target -- 2.4:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $18.05 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$497.82 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.28% • $1.39 • 0.15× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$9.57
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
60.8 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-09 (7 DTE) | swing 2026-09-16 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-28 (56d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-09) and swing expiry (2026-09-16) land before the 2026-10-28 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction above demand no trigger • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $493.34–$496.45
Tight core (where 9 zones align): $493.92–$494.38 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.68
Demand bottom / failure
$493.34
Demand top / hold area
$496.45
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 500.88
1:0.68
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 509.31
1:2.56
Fresh
T3
1H supply @ 516.47
1:4.16
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $496.45 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 4H demand zone identified at $493.34–$496.45. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 4H supply zone identified at $500.88, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: MSFT is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): MSFT weekly trend is bullish (price above its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 61.6).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +3.0% over 20d (MSFT +1.9% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.95x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $1.37 to reach the zone, $3.11 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $4.43 runway to the target -- 1.4:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $500.88 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$123.09 as of 2026-09-02 07:20 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.18% • $0.22 • 0.03× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$8.75
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
57.7 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-29 (57d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-29 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
3H/2H/90m supply $123.31–$124.66
T1 R:R
1:1.79
Supply top / failure
$124.66
Supply bottom / rejection
$123.31
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 120.28
1:1.79
1 test
T2
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 112.33
1:6.85
Fresh
T3
90m/1H demand @ 103.56
1:12.44
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $123.31 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 3H supply zone at $123.31–$124.66 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $120.28, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: MSTR is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): MSTR weekly trend is bullish-leaning (price above its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 46.2).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +26.4% over 20d (MSTR +25.2% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 2.23x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.22 to reach the zone, $1.35 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $3.03 runway to the target -- 2.2:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $120.28 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$123.09 as of 2026-09-02 07:20 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.28% • $2.81 • 0.32× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$8.75
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
57.7 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-29 (57d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-29 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction above demand no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $118.01–$120.28
Tight core (where 5 zones align): $118.44–$119.24 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.04
Demand bottom / failure
$118.01
Demand top / hold area
$120.28
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
3H/2H/90m supply @ 123.31
1:0.04
1 test
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 127.80
1:0.93
Fresh
T3
1D/1H supply @ 148.47
1:5.00
Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving
📈 Demand Zone Test $120.28 (Bullish): I'll be observing for a test & bounce at the 4H demand zone identified at $118.01–$120.28. If we HOLD ABOVE this demand zone, the open price, 9EMA, and we see a bullish candlestick pattern, this would be a good opportunity to go long, anticipating a move upwards towards the 3H supply zone identified at $123.31, holding above the 9EMA.
Daily trend: MSTR is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): MSTR weekly trend is bullish-leaning (price above its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 46.2).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +26.4% over 20d (MSTR +25.2% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 2.9x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $2.81 to reach the zone, $2.27 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $3.03 runway to the target -- 1.3:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $123.31 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
$17.83 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
1.23% • $0.22 • 0.25× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$0.88
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
48.8 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-04 (2 DTE) | swing 2026-09-18 (16 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-27 (55d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-04) and swing expiry (2026-09-18) land before the 2026-10-27 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume below supply no trigger • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
90m supply $18.05–$18.20
T1 R:R
1:0.11
Supply top / failure
$18.20
Supply bottom / rejection
$18.05
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
3H/90m demand @ 17.79
1:0.11
Fresh
T2
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 17.19
1:1.73
Fresh
T3
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 16.44
1:3.76
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $18.05 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 90m supply zone at $18.05–$18.20 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $17.79, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: SOFI is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): SOFI weekly trend is bearish-leaning (price below its 10-wk avg and above its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 47.9).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • lagging QQQ by -1.1% over 20d (SOFI -2.2% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.57x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.22 to reach the zone, $0.15 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $0.26 runway to the target -- 1.7:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $17.79 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).
📉 TSLA — Supply Rejection — Puts
Setup Grade BReversal: 1:3 runwayPuts
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$356.63 as of 2026-09-02 07:25 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
4.87% • $17.37 • 1.30× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$13.32
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
53.5 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-09-09 (7 DTE) | swing 2026-09-16 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-10-21 (49d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-09-09) and swing expiry (2026-09-16) land before the 2026-10-21 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction approaching supply with strength • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $374.01–$380.69
Tight core (where 9 zones align): $374.05–$375.23 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:1.54
Supply top / failure
$380.69
Supply bottom / rejection
$374.01
Target ladder:
Tier
Zone
R:R
Fresh
T1
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 319.53
1:1.54
Fresh
T2
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 311.21
1:1.89
Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening
📉 Supply Zone Rejection @ $374.01 (Bearish): If price tests & holds below the 1D supply zone at $374.01–$380.69 and rejects it while staying below the 9EMA, VWAP, and the open price, I'll monitor for lower lows forming on the 5-minute chart. If volume supports the downside move, that confirms bearish pressure. With all confirmations in place, I'll look to enter a put position targeting the demand zone below at $319.53, holding the trade as long as price stays below the 9EMA.
Daily trend: TSLA is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Weekly trend (HTF): TSLA weekly trend is bullish-leaning (price above its 10-wk avg and below its 30-wk avg, weekly RSI 46.5).
Market / rel. strength: Market regime: SPY ranging · calm, QQQ ranging · calm • leading QQQ by +12.2% over 20d (TSLA +11.0% vs QQQ -1.1%)
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 2.78x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $17.38 to reach the zone, $6.68 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $54.48 runway to the target -- 8.2:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $54.48 to $319.53 -- a long 8.2:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.
Developing Scenario Watchlist
Symbol
Contract
Scenario
Status
Setup Grade
Distance
T1 R:R
R:R Range Summary
Freshness
Confirmation Checklist
SPY
Calls
Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls
Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R
B
0.01%
1:0.53
T1 1:0.53 → T3 1:17.22
Fresh / untested (0 tests)
Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving