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Supply & Demand Scenario Watchlist — 2026-07-21

Generated: 2026-07-21 09:00 AM EDT America/New_York
Price source: latest downloaded market price; timestamp-aware overrides only
Final report filter: setup grades A+ and above, minimum T1 R:R 1:2.50
Entry-confirmation score is intentionally reserved for backtesting/trade review, not watchlist inclusion.
Latest OHLCV bar seen: 2026-07-20 03:55 PM EDT (5M regular-session source)
Latest price uses the newest downloaded bar for proximity; the Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so it trails the live tape by ~15-20 min. Zones are built from regular-session candles only. Candidates are excluded entirely while current price is inside any active zone because that state is unresolved consolidation/chop. Stale quote overrides are ignored when downloaded bars are newer.
Final setups
13
All candidates
125
Bullish / bearish
5 / 8
Avg. distance
2.32%
Excellent: 1:4+ Strong: 1:2.5–1:3.99 Acceptable: 1:2.0–1:2.49 Watch only: 1:1.5–1:1.99 Poor: <1:1.5

Quick View

SectionSymbolContractScenarioSetup GradeCurrent PriceZoneDistanceT1 R:RR:R RangeTarget Ladder
FutureINTCCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsA+$101.993H/2H/90m supply $98.40–$99.492.45%1:6.00T1 1:6.92 → T3 1:11.78T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 107.03 (RR 6.92, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.8) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 109.58 (RR 9.26, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.4) | T3: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 112.33 (RR 11.78, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.0) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 122.20 (RR 20.83, fresh, tests 0, quality 19.1) | T5: 1D/4H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 139.12 (RR 36.36, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.9)
ImmediateSOFIPutsSupply Rejection — PutsA+$17.164H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $17.20–$17.590.23%1:4.00T1 1:4.00T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 15.44 (RR 4.00, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.8)
Near-TermHIMSPutsSupply Rejection — PutsA+$32.814H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $33.10–$33.600.88%1:3.33T1 1:3.33 → T3 1:8.96T1: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 30.18 (RR 3.33, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.6) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 27.18 (RR 7.13, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.4) | T3: 90m/1H demand @ 25.73 (RR 8.96, fresh, tests 0, quality 9.8) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m demand @ 23.88 (RR 11.30, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.1) | T5: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 23.07 (RR 12.33, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.8)
ImmediateTSLAPutsSupply Rejection — PutsA+$371.332H/90m/1H supply $372.18–$377.000.23%1:2.98T1 1:2.98 → T3 1:8.69T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 354.42 (RR 2.98, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.3) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 346.91 (RR 4.31, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.6) | T3: 1D demand @ 322.08 (RR 8.69, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.9)
FutureCOSTPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsA+$931.111D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $907.21–$924.882.57%1:2.61T1 1:2.61T1: 1D demand @ 861.14 (RR 2.61, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.5)
Near-TermCOSTCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsB$931.111D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $907.21–$924.880.67%1:0.42T1 1:0.42 → T3 1:2.70T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 941.03 (RR 0.42, one_test, tests 1, quality 17.0) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 972.51 (RR 1.73, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.5) | T3: 4H/3H/2H/90m supply @ 995.60 (RR 2.70, one_test, tests 1, quality 15.9) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 1003.69 (RR 3.04, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.3) | T5: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 1026.41 (RR 3.99, fresh, tests 0, quality 20.0)
Near-TermCOSTPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$931.111D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $941.03–$970.171.07%1:0.16T1 1:0.16 → T2 1:1.79T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 924.88 (RR 0.16, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.1) | T2: 1D demand @ 861.14 (RR 1.79, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.5)
FutureAPPCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsB$424.054H/1H demand $409.27–$412.552.71%1:0.25T1 1:0.25 → T3 1:1.68T1: 3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 427.76 (RR 0.25, fresh, tests 0, quality 13.3) | T2: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 434.55 (RR 0.71, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.7) | T3: 1D/3H/90m/1H supply @ 448.90 (RR 1.68, fresh, tests 0, quality 16.8) | T4: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 505.65 (RR 5.52, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.7) | T5: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 510.11 (RR 5.82, fresh, tests 0, quality 13.9)
FutureINTCPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$101.991D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $107.03–$109.194.94%1:0.87T1 1:0.87 → T3 1:2.66T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 95.70 (RR 0.87, fresh, tests 0, quality 16.7) | T2: 4H/2H/90m demand @ 84.54 (RR 2.42, fresh, tests 0, quality 16.1) | T3: 3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 82.81 (RR 2.66, fresh, tests 0, quality 13.6) | T4: 90m/1H demand @ 80.92 (RR 2.93, one_test, tests 1, quality 7.6) | T5: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 67.64 (RR 4.77, fresh, tests 0, quality 22.1)
FutureAVGOPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$389.001D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $404.74–$412.704.05%1:0.67T1 1:0.67 → T3 1:3.12T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 373.02 (RR 0.67, fresh, tests 0, quality 19.7) | T2: 1D/4H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 333.97 (RR 2.32, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.1) | T3: 1D/3H/1H demand @ 315.06 (RR 3.12, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.5) | T4: 2H demand @ 309.42 (RR 3.36, multiple_tests, tests 2, quality 2.9, soft obstacle: low_quality) | T5: 4H/2H/1H demand @ 303.15 (RR 3.62, one_test, tests 1, quality 11.2)
FutureQQQPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$704.551D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $735.76–$746.954.43%1:0.06T1 1:0.06 → T3 1:0.52T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 702.11 (RR 0.06, one_test, tests 1, quality 14.4) | T2: 4H/3H/2H demand @ 688.40 (RR 0.38, multiple_tests, tests 2, quality 7.7) | T3: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 682.53 (RR 0.52, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.1) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 674.66 (RR 0.70, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.8) | T5: 4H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 667.89 (RR 0.86, fresh, tests 0, quality 16.5)
FutureNOWCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsB$102.064H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $96.45–$98.363.62%1:0.48T1 1:0.48 → T3 1:1.33T1: 3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 104.74 (RR 0.48, fresh, tests 0, quality 13.6) | T2: 4H/3H supply @ 106.50 (RR 0.79, fresh, tests 0, quality 13.2) | T3: 1D/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 109.50 (RR 1.33, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.5) | T4: 1D/1H supply @ 119.36 (RR 3.09, fresh, tests 0, quality 16.0) | T5: 3H/90m/1H supply @ 126.17 (RR 4.30, fresh, tests 0, quality 13.5)
FutureAAPLCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsB$325.001D demand $315.78–$317.312.37%1:0.75T1 1:0.75T1: 1D/4H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 331.88 (RR 0.75, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.2)

Final / Actionable Setups

📈 INTC — Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls

Setup Grade A+ Textbook geometry IV crush risk Calls
104.46100.9897.5094.0290.54Demand 91.50–95.70Supply 100.32–103.50Current 101.9907/20 09:3007/20 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$101.99
as of 2026-07-21 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.45% • $2.50 • 0.29× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$8.71
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
38.0 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Momentum: RSI leaning against the break (backtest: 32% win, +0.09 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-27 (6 DTE) (crosses earnings)  |  swing 2026-08-03 (13 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
IV CRUSH RISK — 2026-07-23 (2d)
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-27) holds THROUGH the 2026-07-23 report -- you would pay the earnings IV premium (measured ~+40 IV points on comparable names) and give it back as crush. No weekly expiry lands before the report, so any contract here holds through it.
Volume / movement context
high volume
breaking above supply • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
3H/2H/90m supply
$98.40–$99.49
Tight core (where 3 zones align): $98.74–$99.19 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:6.00
Supply bottom / risk area
$98.40
Supply top / breakout
$99.49
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 107.031:6.92Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 109.581:9.26Fresh
T34H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 112.331:11.78Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ 5M close above supply
  • □ hold/retest above zone
  • □ volume expands on break or continuation
  • □ above 9EMA/VWAP
  • □ higher-high or higher-low structure
Plan: Watch for a confirmed 5m close above the 3H/2H/90m supply breakout level near $99.49, followed by continuation above 9EMA/VWAP with volume. The broken supply zone becomes the risk area; targets are the next supply zones above.
Daily trend: INTC is in a bearish daily trend (Bearish LH/LL), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Trade geometry: $2.50 approach to the trigger, $1.09 zone thickness (the stop), $7.54 runway to the next zone -- 6.9:1 at the trigger, 1.15x daily ATR total. Textbook day-trade geometry: short approach, day-sized move, and runway well past the stop (backtest: +0.30 avg R vs +0.05 for everything else). Prior momentum caution: the recent multi-day move has been impulsive -- backtest shows these average ~0.0 R even when aligned; the move tends to have spent itself.

📉 SOFI — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade A+ Steady momentum Puts
17.7517.1816.6216.0615.49Demand 15.65–17.41Supply 17.20–17.59Current 17.1607/20 09:3007/20 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$17.16
as of 2026-07-21 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.23% • $0.04 • 0.04× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$0.92
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
44.3 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (3 DTE)  |  swing 2026-08-07 (17 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-07-29 (8d) — day OK, swing crosses
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-24) lands before the 2026-07-29 report and is clean. The 14-DTE swing (2026-08-07) would hold through it and eat the crush. Pulling the swing in to 2026-07-24 keeps it before the report.
Volume / movement context
elevated volume
below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply
$17.20–$17.59
Tight core (where 14 zones align): $17.32–$17.36 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:4.00
Supply top / failure
$17.59
Supply bottom / rejection
$17.20
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 15.441:4.00Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply zone near $17.59, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: SOFI is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 1.87x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.04 to reach the zone, $0.39 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $1.76 runway to the target -- 4.5:1. Below the validated reversal profile: the zone is thin relative to the target (4.5x -- a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway).

📉 HIMS — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade A+ Steady momentum Puts
35.0133.7632.5231.2730.02Demand 30.36–34.67Supply 33.10–33.60Current 32.8107/20 09:3007/20 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$32.81
as of 2026-07-21 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.88% • $0.29 • 0.12× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$2.39
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
48.4 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (3 DTE)  |  swing 2026-08-07 (17 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-08-10 (20d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-07-24) and swing expiry (2026-08-07) land before the 2026-08-10 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction
below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply
$33.10–$33.60
Tight core (where 6 zones align): $33.33–$33.41 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:3.33
Supply top / failure
$33.60
Supply bottom / rejection
$33.10
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T14H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 30.181:3.33Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 27.181:7.13Fresh
T390m/1H demand @ 25.731:8.96Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply zone near $33.60, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: HIMS is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 2.35x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.29 to reach the zone, $0.50 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $2.92 runway to the target -- 5.8:1. Below the validated reversal profile: the zone is thin relative to the target (5.8x -- a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway).

📉 TSLA — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade A+ Steady momentum IV crush risk Puts
389.16379.92370.69361.46352.22Demand 354.77–379.71Supply 372.18–377.00Current 371.3307/20 09:3007/20 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$371.33
as of 2026-07-21 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.23% • $0.85 • 0.05× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$17.45
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
39.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-27 (6 DTE) (crosses earnings)  |  swing 2026-08-03 (13 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
IV CRUSH RISK — 2026-07-22 (1d)
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-27) holds THROUGH the 2026-07-22 report -- you would pay the earnings IV premium (measured ~+40 IV points on comparable names) and give it back as crush. No weekly expiry lands before the report, so any contract here holds through it.
Volume / movement context
high volume
below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
2H/90m/1H supply
$372.18–$377.00
Tight core (where 4 zones align): $374.00–$374.60 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:2.98
Supply top / failure
$377.00
Supply bottom / rejection
$372.18
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 354.421:2.98Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 346.911:4.31Fresh
T31D demand @ 322.081:8.69Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 2H/90m/1H supply zone near $377.00, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: TSLA is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 2.82x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.85 to reach the zone, $4.82 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $17.76 runway to the target -- 3.7:1. Below the validated reversal profile: the zone is thin relative to the target (3.7x -- a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway).

📉 COST — Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts

Setup Grade A+ Puts
975.21956.95938.69920.43902.17Demand 907.21–924.88Supply 941.03–970.17Current 931.1107/20 09:3007/20 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$931.11
as of 2026-07-21 08:30 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.57% • $23.93 • 1.15× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$20.81
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
45.6 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Momentum: RSI neutral -- no momentum tailwind (backtest: 33% win, -0.02 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (3 DTE)  |  swing 2026-08-07 (17 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-09-24 (65d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-07-24) and swing expiry (2026-08-07) land before the 2026-09-24 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume
above demand no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand
$907.21–$924.88
Tight core (where 10 zones align): $911.33–$911.99 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:2.61
Demand top / risk area
$924.88
Demand bottom / breakdown
$907.21
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D demand @ 861.141:2.61Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ 5M close below demand
  • □ hold/retest below zone
  • □ volume expands on break or continuation
  • □ below 9EMA/VWAP
  • □ lower-low or lower-high structure
Plan: Watch for a confirmed 5m close below the 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand breakdown level near $907.21, followed by continuation below 9EMA/VWAP with volume. The broken demand zone becomes the risk area; targets are the next demand zones below.
Daily trend: COST is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 3.36x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $23.90 approach to the trigger, $17.67 zone thickness (the stop), $46.07 runway to the next zone -- 2.6:1 at the trigger, 3.36x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 1.15x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 3.36x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers.

📈 COST — Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls

Setup Grade B Textbook geometry Steady momentum Reversal: base-hold Calls
975.21956.95938.69920.43902.17Demand 907.21–924.88Supply 941.03–970.17Current 931.1107/20 09:3007/20 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$931.11
as of 2026-07-21 08:30 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.67% • $6.24 • 0.30× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$20.81
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
45.6 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (3 DTE)  |  swing 2026-08-07 (17 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-09-24 (65d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-07-24) and swing expiry (2026-08-07) land before the 2026-09-24 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume
above demand no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand
$907.21–$924.88
Tight core (where 10 zones align): $911.33–$911.99 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.42
Demand bottom / failure
$907.21
Demand top / hold area
$924.88
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 941.031:0.421 test
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 972.511:1.73Fresh
T34H/3H/2H/90m supply @ 995.601:2.701 test
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ demand test
  • □ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
  • □ reversal candle
  • □ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bullish continuation/RBR
  • □ market context improving
Plan: If price tests and holds above the 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand zone near $907.21, stays above the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms bullish 5m candles with increasing volume, monitor for a long toward the next supply zone.
Daily trend: COST is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.99x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $6.23 to reach the zone, $17.67 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $16.15 runway to the target -- 0.9:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $941.03 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).

📉 COST — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Textbook geometry Steady momentum Reversal: base-hold Puts
975.21956.95938.69920.43902.17Demand 907.21–924.88Supply 941.03–970.17Current 931.1107/20 09:3007/20 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$931.11
as of 2026-07-21 08:30 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
1.07% • $9.96 • 0.48× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$20.81
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
45.6 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (3 DTE)  |  swing 2026-08-07 (17 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-09-24 (65d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-07-24) and swing expiry (2026-08-07) land before the 2026-09-24 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume
below supply no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply
$941.03–$970.17
Tight core (where 24 zones align): $961.12–$961.95 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.16
Supply top / failure
$970.17
Supply bottom / rejection
$941.03
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 924.881:0.16Fresh
T21D demand @ 861.141:1.79Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply zone near $970.17, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: COST is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 3.36x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $9.92 to reach the zone, $29.14 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $16.15 runway to the target -- 0.6:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $924.88 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).

📈 APP — Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls

Setup Grade B Steady momentum Reversal: 1:3 runway Calls
453.96443.13432.30421.47410.64Demand 413.63–450.97Supply 427.76–432.63Current 424.0507/20 09:3007/20 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$424.05
as of 2026-07-21 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.71% • $11.49 • 0.35× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$32.73
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
36.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (3 DTE)  |  swing 2026-08-07 (17 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-08-05 (15d) — day OK, swing crosses
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-24) lands before the 2026-08-05 report and is clean. The 14-DTE swing (2026-08-07) would hold through it and eat the crush. Pulling the swing in to 2026-07-31 keeps it before the report.
Volume / movement context
normal volume
approaching demand grinding • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/1H demand
$409.27–$412.55
Tight core (where 2 zones align): $409.88–$411.56 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.25
Demand bottom / failure
$409.27
Demand top / hold area
$412.55
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T13H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 427.761:0.25Fresh
T24H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 434.551:0.71Fresh
T31D/3H/90m/1H supply @ 448.901:1.68Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ demand test
  • □ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
  • □ reversal candle
  • □ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bullish continuation/RBR
  • □ market context improving
Plan: If price tests and holds above the 4H/1H demand zone near $409.27, stays above the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms bullish 5m candles with increasing volume, monitor for a long toward the next supply zone.
Daily trend: APP is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $11.50 to reach the zone, $3.28 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $15.21 runway to the target -- 4.6:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $15.21 to $427.76 -- a long 4.6:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.

📉 INTC — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Reversal: 1:3 runway IV crush risk Puts
104.46100.9897.5094.0290.54Demand 91.50–95.70Supply 100.32–103.50Current 101.9907/20 09:3007/20 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$101.99
as of 2026-07-21 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
4.94% • $5.04 • 0.58× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$8.71
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
38.0 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-27 (6 DTE) (crosses earnings)  |  swing 2026-08-03 (13 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
IV CRUSH RISK — 2026-07-23 (2d)
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-27) holds THROUGH the 2026-07-23 report -- you would pay the earnings IV premium (measured ~+40 IV points on comparable names) and give it back as crush. No weekly expiry lands before the report, so any contract here holds through it.
Volume / movement context
high volume
approaching supply with strength • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply
$107.03–$109.19
Tight core (where 6 zones align): $107.77–$108.78 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.87
Supply top / failure
$109.19
Supply bottom / rejection
$107.03
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 95.701:0.87Fresh
T24H/2H/90m demand @ 84.541:2.42Fresh
T33H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 82.811:2.66Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply zone near $109.19, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: INTC is in a bearish daily trend (Bearish LH/LL), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 2.0x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $5.04 to reach the zone, $2.16 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $11.33 runway to the target -- 5.2:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $11.33 to $95.70 -- a long 5.2:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.

📉 AVGO — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Reversal: 1:3 runway Puts
407.23389.86372.49355.11337.74Demand 342.53–373.02Supply 391.32–402.44Current 389.0007/20 09:3007/20 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$389.00
as of 2026-07-21 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
4.05% • $15.75 • 1.01× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$15.59
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
46.7 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-27 (6 DTE)  |  swing 2026-08-03 (13 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-09-03 (44d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-07-27) and swing expiry (2026-08-03) land before the 2026-09-03 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume
approaching supply with strength • gap between zones
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply
$404.74–$412.70
Tight core (where 9 zones align): $409.58–$411.65 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.67
Supply top / failure
$412.70
Supply bottom / rejection
$404.74
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 373.021:0.67Fresh
T21D/4H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 333.971:2.32Fresh
T31D/3H/1H demand @ 315.061:3.12Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply zone near $412.70, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: AVGO is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading above its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 3.53x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $15.74 to reach the zone, $7.96 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $31.72 runway to the target -- 4.0:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $31.72 to $373.02 -- a long 4.0:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.

📉 QQQ — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Reversal: 1:3 runway Puts
707.21702.74698.27693.80689.33Demand 690.74–702.11Supply 699.93–705.80Current 704.5507/20 09:3007/20 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$704.55
as of 2026-07-21 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
4.43% • $31.21 • 2.20× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$14.19
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
42.3 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-27 (6 DTE)  |  swing 2026-08-03 (13 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
none upcoming
No earnings on the calendar for this name (normal for ETFs), so no IV-crush exposure to price in.
Volume / movement context
high volume
approaching supply with strength • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply
$735.76–$746.95
Tight core (where 23 zones align): $744.24–$744.28 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.06
Supply top / failure
$746.95
Supply bottom / rejection
$735.76
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 702.111:0.061 test
T24H/3H/2H demand @ 688.401:0.382 tests
T34H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 682.531:0.52Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply zone near $746.95, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: QQQ is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.55x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $31.21 to reach the zone, $11.19 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $33.65 runway to the target -- 3.0:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $33.65 to $702.11 -- a long 3.0:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.

📈 NOW — Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls

Setup Grade B Reversal: 1:3 runway IV crush risk Calls
106.30104.19102.0899.9697.85Demand 98.43–100.64Supply 104.74–105.72Current 102.0607/20 09:3007/20 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$102.06
as of 2026-07-21 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
3.62% • $3.69 • 0.64× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$5.81
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
50.5 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (3 DTE) (crosses earnings)  |  swing 2026-08-07 (17 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
IV CRUSH RISK — 2026-07-22 (1d)
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-24) holds THROUGH the 2026-07-22 report -- you would pay the earnings IV premium (measured ~+40 IV points on comparable names) and give it back as crush. No weekly expiry lands before the report, so any contract here holds through it.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible
approaching demand with weakness • gap between zones
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand
$96.45–$98.36
Tight core (where 12 zones align): $97.22–$97.56 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.48
Demand bottom / failure
$96.45
Demand top / hold area
$98.36
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T13H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 104.741:0.48Fresh
T24H/3H supply @ 106.501:0.79Fresh
T31D/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 109.501:1.33Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ demand test
  • □ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
  • □ reversal candle
  • □ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bullish continuation/RBR
  • □ market context improving
Plan: If price tests and holds above the 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand zone near $96.45, stays above the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms bullish 5m candles with increasing volume, monitor for a long toward the next supply zone.
Daily trend: NOW is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $3.70 to reach the zone, $1.91 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $6.38 runway to the target -- 3.3:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $6.38 to $104.74 -- a long 3.3:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.

📈 AAPL — Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls

Setup Grade B Reversal: 1:3 runway Calls
335.91332.59329.26325.94322.62Demand 323.54–327.78Supply 331.88–334.99Current 325.0007/20 09:3007/20 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$325.00
as of 2026-07-21 08:40 AM EDT — Premarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.37% • $7.70 • 0.92× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$8.37
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
63.9 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-27 (6 DTE)  |  swing 2026-08-03 (13 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-07-30 (9d) — day OK, swing crosses
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-27) lands before the 2026-07-30 report and is clean. The 14-DTE swing (2026-08-03) would hold through it and eat the crush. Pulling the swing in to 2026-07-24 keeps it before the report.
Volume / movement context
high volume
approaching demand with weakness • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D demand
$315.78–$317.31
T1 R:R
1:0.75
Demand bottom / failure
$315.78
Demand top / hold area
$317.31
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 331.881:0.75Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ demand test
  • □ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
  • □ reversal candle
  • □ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bullish continuation/RBR
  • □ market context improving
Plan: If price tests and holds above the 1D demand zone near $315.78, stays above the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms bullish 5m candles with increasing volume, monitor for a long toward the next supply zone.
Daily trend: AAPL is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $7.69 to reach the zone, $1.53 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $14.57 runway to the target -- 9.5:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $14.57 to $331.88 -- a long 9.5:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.

Developing Scenario Watchlist

SymbolContractScenarioStatusSetup GradeDistanceT1 R:RR:R Range SummaryFreshnessConfirmation Checklist
AMZNCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.03%1:0.50T1 1:0.50 → T3 1:7.81One successful retest (1 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
AMDCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.03%1:0.26T1 1:0.26 → T3 1:3.17Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
MUCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.05%1:1.24T1 1:1.24 → T3 1:2.35Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
UBERPutsSupply Rejection — PutsAt zone: needs confirmationB0.10%1:6.00T1 1:17.46 → T3 1:30.00Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
TEMCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.13%1:0.04T1 1:0.04 → T3 1:1.26Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
UBERCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsAt zone: needs confirmationB0.18%1:2.67T1 1:2.67 → T3 1:112.83Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
QQQPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.20%1:0.27T1 1:0.27 → T3 1:2.43Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
AMZNPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.30%1:0.05T1 1:0.05 → T3 1:6.93Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
METACallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.32%1:1.07T1 1:1.07 → T3 1:3.70One successful retest (1 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
UBERPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.40%1:1.85T1 1:1.85 → T3 1:3.17Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
PLTRPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsAt zone: needs confirmationB0.42%1:6.00T1 1:12.88 → T3 1:20.09Multiple retests (2 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
AMZNCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsAt zone: needs confirmationB0.53%1:3.95T1 1:3.95 → T3 1:32.76Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
NOWPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsAt zone: needs confirmationB0.57%1:3.33T1 1:3.33 → T3 1:20.68Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
AVGOCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.58%1:0.69T1 1:0.69 → T3 1:4.46Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
AMDPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.60%1:1.11T1 1:1.11 → T3 1:4.61Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
AVGOPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.60%1:1.19T1 1:1.19 → T3 1:5.50Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
AMZNPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.60%1:0.35T1 1:0.35 → T3 1:13.23One successful retest (1 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
NFLXCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsAt zone: needs confirmationB0.67%1:6.00T1 1:7.92 → T3 1:67.17One successful retest (1 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
MSFTCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.72%1:1.30T1 1:1.30 → T3 1:2.82Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
ANETCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsAt zone: needs confirmationB0.74%1:6.00T1 1:15.00Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
AMZNCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.80%1:0.08T1 1:0.08 → T3 1:1.31Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
SPYPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.81%1:0.42T1 1:0.42 → T3 1:1.64Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
CRMCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.84%1:0.62T1 1:0.62 → T3 1:2.68One successful retest (1 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
SPYCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.86%1:0.80T1 1:0.80Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
SPYPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsNear zone: developingB1.01%1:6.00T1 1:7.46 → T3 1:22.67Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
GOOGLCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.13%1:0.77T1 1:0.77 → T3 1:3.31Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
QQQCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.28%1:0.35T1 1:0.35 → T2 1:2.89Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
NVDAPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.36%1:0.17T1 1:0.17 → T3 1:2.05Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
NOWCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.39%1:0.74T1 1:0.74 → T3 1:2.05Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
AMZNPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.45%1:0.01T1 1:0.01 → T3 1:0.79Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
TSLACallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.53%1:0.80T1 1:0.80 → T3 1:3.47Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
QQQPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.66%1:0.09T1 1:0.09 → T3 1:0.80Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
UBERCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.70%1:0.00T1 1:0.00 → T3 1:6.03Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
GOOGLPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.71%1:0.46T1 1:0.46 → T3 1:2.07Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
UBERPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.77%1:0.40T1 1:0.40 → T3 1:0.69Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
AMDCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.90%1:0.27T1 1:0.27 → T3 1:6.97Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
QQQPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.96%1:0.21T1 1:0.21 → T3 1:1.41One successful retest (1 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
RBLXCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.99%1:0.66T1 1:0.66 → T3 1:2.38Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
METAPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB2.00%1:0.13T1 1:0.13 → T3 1:6.65One successful retest (1 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
SPYCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB2.01%n/aNo valid targetFresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure

Zone Map / Research Context

SymbolContractScenarioStatusSetup GradeDistanceT1 R:RR:R Range SummaryFreshnessConfirmation Checklist
COSTPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsAt zone: needs confirmationB0.28%1:2.67T1 1:2.67 → T2 1:21.81Multiple retests (4 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
NFLXPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC0.49%n/aNo valid targetOne successful retest (1 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
NFLXPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC2.08%n/aNo valid targetFresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
GOOGLPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC2.22%1:0.42T1 1:0.42 → T3 1:5.64Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
GOOGLCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC2.68%1:0.39T1 1:0.39 → T3 1:1.70Multiple retests (4 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
HOODPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC3.78%1:0.23T1 1:0.23 → T3 1:1.39Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
HOODPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB4.11%1:0.33T1 1:0.33 → T3 1:2.92Multiple retests (9 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
GOOGLPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC4.33%1:0.00T1 1:0.00 → T3 1:2.44Multiple retests (4 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure

v0.29 separates setup quality from entry confirmation. The watchlist prepares Calls/Puts scenarios, target ladders, R:R tiers, and confirmation checklists; entry-confirmation scoring belongs to backtesting/trade review.