Watchlist  |  Watchlist Archive  |  Movement Context  |  Movement Context Archive

Supply & Demand Scenario Watchlist — 2026-07-17

Generated: 2026-07-17 08:21 PM EDT America/New_York
Price source: latest downloaded market price; timestamp-aware overrides only
Final report filter: setup grades A+ and above, minimum T1 R:R 1:2.50
Entry-confirmation score is intentionally reserved for backtesting/trade review, not watchlist inclusion.
Latest OHLCV bar seen: 2026-07-17 03:55 PM EDT (5M regular-session source)
Latest price uses the newest downloaded bar for proximity; the Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so it trails the live tape by ~15-20 min. Zones are built from regular-session candles only. Candidates are excluded entirely while current price is inside any active zone because that state is unresolved consolidation/chop. Stale quote overrides are ignored when downloaded bars are newer.
Final setups
20
All candidates
147
Bullish / bearish
10 / 10
Avg. distance
1.71%
Excellent: 1:4+ Strong: 1:2.5–1:3.99 Acceptable: 1:2.0–1:2.49 Watch only: 1:1.5–1:1.99 Poor: <1:1.5

Quick View

SectionSymbolContractScenarioSetup GradeCurrent PriceZoneDistanceT1 R:RR:R RangeTarget Ladder
FutureRBLXCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsA+$51.503H/2H/1H supply $52.32–$52.632.19%1:6.00T1 1:7.71 → T3 1:22.58T1: 2H/90m/1H supply @ 55.02 (RR 7.71, fresh, tests 0, quality 12.7) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 55.81 (RR 10.26, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.3) | T3: 3H/2H/1H supply @ 59.63 (RR 22.58, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.2) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 61.26 (RR 27.84, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.0) | T5: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 65.62 (RR 41.90, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.4)
ImmediateSOFIPutsSupply Rejection — PutsA+$17.304H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $17.32–$17.590.12%1:6.00T1 1:6.41T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 15.44 (RR 6.41, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.8)
FutureSOFIPutsSupply Rejection — PutsA+$17.304H/3H/2H supply $17.76–$17.932.66%1:2.95T1 1:2.95T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 15.44 (RR 2.95, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.8)
FutureANETCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsA+$168.464H/2H/1H supply $171.86–$172.692.51%1:6.00T1 1:10.71T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 181.58 (RR 10.71, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.8)
Near-TermSPYCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsA+$742.503H/2H/1H supply $745.94–$747.270.64%1:2.59T1 1:2.59T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 750.72 (RR 2.59, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.7)
FutureIONQPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsA+$35.002H/90m/1H demand $33.74–$34.953.60%1:3.27T1 1:3.27 → T2 1:3.62T1: 1H demand @ 29.78 (RR 3.27, fresh, tests 0, quality 13.8) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 29.36 (RR 3.62, fresh, tests 0, quality 16.9)
Near-TermNVDAPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$202.553H/90m/1H supply $203.82–$207.810.63%1:0.97T1 1:0.97 → T3 1:3.55T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 197.43 (RR 0.97, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.8) | T2: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 189.21 (RR 2.54, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.2) | T3: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 183.91 (RR 3.55, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.7) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 178.10 (RR 4.65, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.2) | T5: 1H demand @ 173.28 (RR 5.57, one_test, tests 1, quality 4.8, soft obstacle: low_quality)
Near-TermCOINPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$157.051D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $157.60–$178.550.35%1:0.41T1 1:0.41 → T2 1:0.73T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 148.18 (RR 0.41, fresh, tests 0, quality 19.6) | T2: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 141.29 (RR 0.73, one_test, tests 1, quality 16.8)
FutureAPPPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$424.854H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $434.55–$444.682.28%1:0.62T1 1:0.62 → T2 1:1.60T1: 4H/1H demand @ 412.55 (RR 0.62, fresh, tests 0, quality 12.1) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 393.22 (RR 1.60, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.8)
Near-TermNETCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsB$276.061D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $262.05–$274.460.58%1:0.14T1 1:0.14T1: 4H/3H/2H supply @ 278.07 (RR 0.14, fresh, tests 0, quality 13.8)
FutureTEMCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsB$52.501D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $44.30–$50.234.32%1:0.02T1 1:0.02 → T3 1:0.53T1: 4H/1H supply @ 52.66 (RR 0.02, fresh, tests 0, quality 11.8) | T2: 1H supply @ 54.17 (RR 0.20, fresh, tests 0, quality 8.4) | T3: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 56.84 (RR 0.53, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.3) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 60.09 (RR 0.93, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.1) | T5: 1D/4H/3H/2H/1H supply @ 63.36 (RR 1.32, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.5)
Near-TermNETPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$276.064H/3H/2H supply $278.07–$282.100.73%1:0.26T1 1:0.26 → T3 1:4.67T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 274.46 (RR 0.26, fresh, tests 0, quality 16.8) | T2: 4H/3H demand @ 260.84 (RR 2.52, one_test, tests 1, quality 12.4) | T3: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 247.88 (RR 4.67, fresh, tests 0, quality 19.8) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 228.38 (RR 7.89, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.2) | T5: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 212.23 (RR 10.57, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.5)
FutureMSTRCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsB$94.951D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $90.02–$92.162.94%1:0.39T1 1:0.39 → T3 1:1.80T1: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 96.89 (RR 0.39, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.4) | T2: 4H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 100.33 (RR 1.09, one_test, tests 1, quality 10.4) | T3: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 103.84 (RR 1.80, fresh, tests 0, quality 16.3) | T4: 2H/1H supply @ 109.72 (RR 3.00, fresh, tests 0, quality 10.2) | T5: 4H/3H/1H supply @ 113.86 (RR 3.83, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.7)
FutureMSTRPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$94.954H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $96.89–$99.902.04%1:0.28T1 1:0.28 → T3 1:1.59T1: 1H demand @ 93.59 (RR 0.28, fresh, tests 0, quality 7.9) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 92.16 (RR 0.56, one_test, tests 1, quality 14.7) | T3: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 87.09 (RR 1.59, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.4)
ImmediateGOOGLPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$346.451H supply $346.95–$348.520.14%1:0.41T1 1:0.41 → T3 1:6.53T1: 4H/3H/90m demand @ 345.61 (RR 0.41, fresh, tests 0, quality 13.1) | T2: 1D/3H demand @ 341.18 (RR 2.55, multiple_tests, tests 4, quality -999.0, soft obstacle: 4plus_tests) | T3: 4H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 332.93 (RR 6.53, one_test, tests 1, quality 12.6) | T4: 1H demand @ 321.26 (RR 12.17, fresh, tests 0, quality 13.3) | T5: 2H/1H demand @ 319.56 (RR 12.99, fresh, tests 0, quality 10.5)
Near-TermMETACallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsB$640.2590m/1H demand $626.00–$634.600.88%1:1.59T1 1:1.59 → T3 1:3.99T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 662.85 (RR 1.59, fresh, tests 0, quality 19.3) | T2: 4H supply @ 691.75 (RR 3.61, fresh, tests 0, quality 12.6) | T3: 90m/1H supply @ 697.07 (RR 3.99, fresh, tests 0, quality 9.8) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 706.40 (RR 4.64, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.2) | T5: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 735.19 (RR 6.66, fresh, tests 0, quality 16.6)
FutureQQQCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsB$693.601D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $668.90–$674.662.73%1:0.24T1 1:0.24 → T3 1:0.92T1: 90m supply @ 699.49 (RR 0.24, fresh, tests 0, quality 9.3) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/1H supply @ 705.94 (RR 0.50, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.4) | T3: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 716.25 (RR 0.92, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.3) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 735.76 (RR 1.71, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.4)
FutureUBERCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsB$72.554H/2H/90m/1H demand $69.56–$69.913.64%1:0.07T1 1:0.07 → T3 1:2.18T1: 1H supply @ 72.75 (RR 0.07, fresh, tests 0, quality 8.3) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 73.46 (RR 0.30, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.0) | T3: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 79.08 (RR 2.18, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.4) | T4: 2H/90m/1H supply @ 81.98 (RR 3.15, multiple_tests, tests 2, quality 6.9) | T5: 3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 82.54 (RR 3.34, fresh, tests 0, quality 13.1)
Near-TermQQQCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsB$693.604H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $686.48–$688.400.75%1:0.83T1 1:0.83 → T3 1:3.18T1: 90m supply @ 699.49 (RR 0.83, fresh, tests 0, quality 9.3) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/1H supply @ 705.94 (RR 1.73, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.4) | T3: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 716.25 (RR 3.18, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.3) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 735.76 (RR 5.92, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.4)
Near-TermPANWPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$359.3990m/1H supply $361.21–$362.460.51%1:0.76T1 1:0.76 → T3 1:19.69T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m demand @ 357.06 (RR 0.76, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.0) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 330.30 (RR 9.49, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.8) | T3: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 299.04 (RR 19.69, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.4) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 293.56 (RR 21.47, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.9) | T5: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 280.82 (RR 25.63, multiple_tests, tests 3, quality 7.4)

Final / Actionable Setups

📈 RBLX — Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls

Setup Grade A+ Textbook geometry Calls
53.4551.1048.7546.4044.05Demand 44.70–47.56Supply 52.32–52.63Current 51.5007/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$51.50
as of 2026-07-17 07:35 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.19% • $1.13 • 0.34× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$3.36
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
49.0 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Momentum: RSI neutral -- no momentum tailwind (backtest: 33% win, -0.02 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (7 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-07-30 (13d) — day OK, swing crosses
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-24) lands before the 2026-07-30 report and is clean. The 14-DTE swing (2026-07-31) would hold through it and eat the crush. Pulling the swing in to 2026-07-24 keeps it before the report.
Volume / movement context
high volume
rejecting from supply • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
3H/2H/1H supply
$52.32–$52.63
Tight core (where 3 zones align): $52.36–$52.47 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:6.00
Supply bottom / risk area
$52.32
Supply top / breakout
$52.63
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T12H/90m/1H supply @ 55.021:7.71Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 55.811:10.26Fresh
T33H/2H/1H supply @ 59.631:22.58Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ 5M close above supply
  • □ hold/retest above zone
  • □ volume expands on break or continuation
  • □ above 9EMA/VWAP
  • □ higher-high or higher-low structure
Plan: Watch for a confirmed 5m close above the 3H/2H/1H supply breakout level near $52.63, followed by continuation above 9EMA/VWAP with volume. The broken supply zone becomes the risk area; targets are the next supply zones above.
Daily trend: RBLX is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 2.42x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $1.13 approach to the trigger, $0.31 zone thickness (the stop), $2.39 runway to the next zone -- 7.7:1 at the trigger, 1.05x daily ATR total. Textbook day-trade geometry: short approach, day-sized move, and runway well past the stop (backtest: +0.30 avg R vs +0.05 for everything else).

📉 SOFI — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade A+ Steady momentum Puts
17.9017.2916.6916.0915.48Demand 15.65–17.73Supply 17.32–17.59Current 17.3007/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$17.30
as of 2026-07-17 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.12% • $0.02 • 0.02× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$0.94
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
46.4 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (7 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-07-29 (12d) — day OK, swing crosses
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-24) lands before the 2026-07-29 report and is clean. The 14-DTE swing (2026-07-31) would hold through it and eat the crush. Pulling the swing in to 2026-07-24 keeps it before the report.
Volume / movement context
elevated volume
below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply
$17.32–$17.59
Tight core (where 7 zones align): $17.45–$17.49 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:6.00
Supply top / failure
$17.59
Supply bottom / rejection
$17.32
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 15.441:6.41Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply zone near $17.59, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: SOFI is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 1.97x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.02 to reach the zone, $0.27 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $1.88 runway to the target -- 7.0:1. Below the validated reversal profile: the zone is thin relative to the target (7.0x -- a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway).

📉 SOFI — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade A+ Steady momentum Puts
17.9017.2916.6916.0915.48Demand 15.65–17.73Supply 17.32–17.59Current 17.3007/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$17.30
as of 2026-07-17 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.66% • $0.46 • 0.49× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$0.94
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
46.4 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (7 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-07-29 (12d) — day OK, swing crosses
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-24) lands before the 2026-07-29 report and is clean. The 14-DTE swing (2026-07-31) would hold through it and eat the crush. Pulling the swing in to 2026-07-24 keeps it before the report.
Volume / movement context
elevated volume
below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H supply
$17.76–$17.93
T1 R:R
1:2.95
Supply top / failure
$17.93
Supply bottom / rejection
$17.76
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 15.441:2.95Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 4H/3H/2H supply zone near $17.93, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: SOFI is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 1.97x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.46 to reach the zone, $0.17 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $2.32 runway to the target -- 13.7:1. Below the validated reversal profile: the zone is thin relative to the target (13.7x -- a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway).

📈 ANET — Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls

Setup Grade A+ Calls
173.93169.42164.91160.40155.89Demand 162.59–169.21Supply 171.86–172.69Current 168.4607/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$168.46
as of 2026-07-17 07:45 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.51% • $4.23 • 0.36× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$11.59
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
49.5 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Momentum: RSI neutral -- no momentum tailwind (backtest: 33% win, -0.02 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (7 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-08-04 (18d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-07-24) and swing expiry (2026-07-31) land before the 2026-08-04 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume
below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/2H/1H supply
$171.86–$172.69
T1 R:R
1:6.00
Supply bottom / risk area
$171.86
Supply top / breakout
$172.69
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 181.581:10.71Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ 5M close above supply
  • □ hold/retest above zone
  • □ volume expands on break or continuation
  • □ above 9EMA/VWAP
  • □ higher-high or higher-low structure
Plan: Watch for a confirmed 5m close above the 4H/2H/1H supply breakout level near $172.69, followed by continuation above 9EMA/VWAP with volume. The broken supply zone becomes the risk area; targets are the next supply zones above.
Daily trend: ANET is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Trade geometry: $4.23 approach to the trigger, $0.83 zone thickness (the stop), $8.89 runway to the next zone -- 10.7:1 at the trigger, 1.13x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.37x daily ATR before entry.

📈 SPY — Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls

Setup Grade A+ Calls
748.77746.20743.63741.07738.50Demand 739.98–744.80Supply 745.94–747.27Current 742.5007/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$742.50
as of 2026-07-17 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.64% • $4.75 • 0.62× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$7.69
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
48.4 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Momentum: RSI neutral -- no momentum tailwind (backtest: 33% win, -0.02 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-22 (5 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
none upcoming
No earnings on the calendar for this name (normal for ETFs), so no IV-crush exposure to price in.
Volume / movement context
high volume
below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
3H/2H/1H supply
$745.94–$747.27
Tight core (where 3 zones align): $746.34–$747.10 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:2.59
Supply bottom / risk area
$745.94
Supply top / breakout
$747.27
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 750.721:2.59Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ 5M close above supply
  • □ hold/retest above zone
  • □ volume expands on break or continuation
  • □ above 9EMA/VWAP
  • □ higher-high or higher-low structure
Plan: Watch for a confirmed 5m close above the 3H/2H/1H supply breakout level near $747.27, followed by continuation above 9EMA/VWAP with volume. The broken supply zone becomes the risk area; targets are the next supply zones above.
Daily trend: SPY is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Range-bound), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Trade geometry: $4.77 approach to the trigger, $1.33 zone thickness (the stop), $3.45 runway to the next zone -- 2.6:1 at the trigger, 1.07x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.62x daily ATR before entry.

📉 IONQ — Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts

Setup Grade A+ Puts
36.1235.3634.6033.8433.08Demand 33.74–34.95Supply 35.10–35.91Current 35.0007/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$35.00
as of 2026-07-17 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
3.60% • $1.26 • 0.38× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$3.29
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
26.1 (oversold)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Momentum: RSI strongly extended in the trade direction (backtest: 55% win, +0.31 avg R)
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (7 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-08-05 (19d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-07-24) and swing expiry (2026-07-31) land before the 2026-08-05 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume
above demand no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
2H/90m/1H demand
$33.74–$34.95
Tight core (where 4 zones align): $33.95–$34.17 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:3.27
Demand top / risk area
$34.95
Demand bottom / breakdown
$33.74
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11H demand @ 29.781:3.27Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 29.361:3.62Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ 5M close below demand
  • □ hold/retest below zone
  • □ volume expands on break or continuation
  • □ below 9EMA/VWAP
  • □ lower-low or lower-high structure
Plan: Watch for a confirmed 5m close below the 2H/90m/1H demand breakdown level near $33.74, followed by continuation below 9EMA/VWAP with volume. The broken demand zone becomes the risk area; targets are the next demand zones below.
Daily trend: IONQ is in a bearish daily trend (Bearish LH/LL), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 1.58x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $1.26 approach to the trigger, $1.21 zone thickness (the stop), $3.96 runway to the next zone -- 3.3:1 at the trigger, 1.58x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.38x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 1.58x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers.

📉 NVDA — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Textbook geometry Steady momentum Reversal: base-hold Puts
208.60205.74202.89200.04197.18Demand 198.96–204.46Supply 203.82–207.81Current 202.5507/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$202.55
as of 2026-07-17 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.63% • $1.28 • 0.17× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$7.35
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
48.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-22 (5 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-08-26 (40d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-07-22) and swing expiry (2026-07-31) land before the 2026-08-26 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume
below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
3H/90m/1H supply
$203.82–$207.81
Tight core (where 5 zones align): $206.46–$206.65 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.97
Supply top / failure
$207.81
Supply bottom / rejection
$203.82
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 197.431:0.97Fresh
T24H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 189.211:2.54Fresh
T31D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 183.911:3.55Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 3H/90m/1H supply zone near $207.81, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: NVDA is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.82x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $1.27 to reach the zone, $3.99 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $6.39 runway to the target -- 1.6:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $197.43 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).

📉 COIN — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Textbook geometry Steady momentum Reversal: base-hold Puts
180.63173.10165.56158.03150.50Demand 154.01–159.36Supply 157.60–178.55Current 157.0507/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$157.05
as of 2026-07-17 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.35% • $0.55 • 0.06× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$9.15
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
45.8 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (7 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-07-30 (13d) — day OK, swing crosses
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-24) lands before the 2026-07-30 report and is clean. The 14-DTE swing (2026-07-31) would hold through it and eat the crush. Pulling the swing in to 2026-07-24 keeps it before the report.
Volume / movement context
high volume
below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply
$157.60–$178.55
Tight core (where 29 zones align): $172.80–$172.87 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.41
Supply top / failure
$178.55
Supply bottom / rejection
$157.60
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 148.181:0.41Fresh
T24H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 141.291:0.731 test
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply zone near $178.55, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: COIN is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.72x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.55 to reach the zone, $20.95 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $9.42 runway to the target -- 0.5:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $148.18 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).

📉 APP — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Textbook geometry Steady momentum Reversal: base-hold Puts
453.96443.13432.30421.47410.64Demand 413.63–450.97Supply 434.55–444.68Current 424.8507/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$424.85
as of 2026-07-17 07:50 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.28% • $9.69 • 0.29× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$33.73
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
36.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (7 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-08-05 (19d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-07-24) and swing expiry (2026-07-31) land before the 2026-08-05 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
elevated volume
below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply
$434.55–$444.68
Tight core (where 7 zones align): $442.17–$443.30 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.62
Supply top / failure
$444.68
Supply bottom / rejection
$434.55
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T14H/1H demand @ 412.551:0.62Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 393.221:1.60Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply zone near $444.68, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: APP is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $9.70 to reach the zone, $10.13 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $22.00 runway to the target -- 2.2:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $412.55 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).

📈 NET — Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls

Setup Grade B Textbook geometry Steady momentum Reversal: base-hold Calls
283.73277.82271.91266.00260.10Demand 274.58–278.07Supply 278.07–282.10Current 276.0607/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$276.06
as of 2026-07-17 07:20 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.58% • $1.60 • 0.11× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$14.27
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
64.9 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (7 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-08-06 (20d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-07-24) and swing expiry (2026-07-31) land before the 2026-08-06 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume
above demand no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand
$262.05–$274.46
Tight core (where 24 zones align): $267.04–$268.27 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.14
Demand bottom / failure
$262.05
Demand top / hold area
$274.46
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T14H/3H/2H supply @ 278.071:0.14Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ demand test
  • □ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
  • □ reversal candle
  • □ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bullish continuation/RBR
  • □ market context improving
Plan: If price tests and holds above the 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand zone near $262.05, stays above the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms bullish 5m candles with increasing volume, monitor for a long toward the next supply zone.
Daily trend: NET is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $1.60 to reach the zone, $12.41 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $3.61 runway to the target -- 0.3:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $278.07 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).

📈 TEM — Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls

Setup Grade B Textbook geometry Steady momentum Reversal: base-hold Calls
53.7052.9852.2651.5450.82Demand 51.02–52.67Supply 52.66–53.50Current 52.5007/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$52.50
as of 2026-07-17 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
4.32% • $2.27 • 0.54× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$4.19
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
45.5 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (7 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-07-30 (13d) — day OK, swing crosses
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-24) lands before the 2026-07-30 report and is clean. The 14-DTE swing (2026-07-31) would hold through it and eat the crush. Pulling the swing in to 2026-07-24 keeps it before the report.
Volume / movement context
absorption possible
above demand no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand
$44.30–$50.23
Tight core (where 35 zones align): $45.04–$45.16 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.02
Demand bottom / failure
$44.30
Demand top / hold area
$50.23
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T14H/1H supply @ 52.661:0.02Fresh
T21H supply @ 54.171:0.20Fresh
T31D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 56.841:0.53Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ demand test
  • □ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
  • □ reversal candle
  • □ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bullish continuation/RBR
  • □ market context improving
Plan: If price tests and holds above the 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand zone near $44.30, stays above the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms bullish 5m candles with increasing volume, monitor for a long toward the next supply zone.
Daily trend: TEM is in a bearish daily trend (Bearish LH/LL), trading below its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $2.27 to reach the zone, $5.93 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $2.43 runway to the target -- 0.4:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $52.66 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).

📉 NET — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Textbook geometry Steady momentum Reversal: base-hold Puts
283.73277.82271.91266.00260.10Demand 274.58–278.07Supply 278.07–282.10Current 276.0607/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$276.06
as of 2026-07-17 07:20 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.73% • $2.02 • 0.14× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$14.27
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
64.9 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (7 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-08-06 (20d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-07-24) and swing expiry (2026-07-31) land before the 2026-08-06 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
high volume
below supply no trigger • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H supply
$278.07–$282.10
Tight core (where 4 zones align): $281.55–$281.97 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.26
Supply top / failure
$282.10
Supply bottom / rejection
$278.07
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 274.461:0.26Fresh
T24H/3H demand @ 260.841:2.521 test
T31D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 247.881:4.67Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 4H/3H/2H supply zone near $282.10, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: NET is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.98x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $2.01 to reach the zone, $4.03 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $3.61 runway to the target -- 0.9:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $274.46 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).

📈 MSTR — Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls

Setup Grade B Textbook geometry Steady momentum Reversal: base-hold Calls
96.4494.7393.0191.3089.59Demand 93.59–95.00Supply 94.57–95.56Current 94.9507/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$94.95
as of 2026-07-17 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.94% • $2.79 • 0.38× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$7.39
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
40.1 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (7 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-07-30 (13d) — day OK, swing crosses
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-24) lands before the 2026-07-30 report and is clean. The 14-DTE swing (2026-07-31) would hold through it and eat the crush. Pulling the swing in to 2026-07-24 keeps it before the report.
Volume / movement context
high volume
above demand no trigger • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand
$90.02–$92.16
Tight core (where 13 zones align): $91.44–$91.49 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.39
Demand bottom / failure
$90.02
Demand top / hold area
$92.16
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T14H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 96.891:0.39Fresh
T24H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 100.331:1.091 test
T31D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 103.841:1.80Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ demand test
  • □ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
  • □ reversal candle
  • □ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bullish continuation/RBR
  • □ market context improving
Plan: If price tests and holds above the 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand zone near $90.02, stays above the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms bullish 5m candles with increasing volume, monitor for a long toward the next supply zone.
Daily trend: MSTR is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $2.79 to reach the zone, $2.14 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $4.73 runway to the target -- 2.2:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $96.89 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).

📉 MSTR — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Textbook geometry Steady momentum Reversal: base-hold Puts
96.4494.7393.0191.3089.59Demand 93.59–95.00Supply 94.57–95.56Current 94.9507/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$94.95
as of 2026-07-17 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.04% • $1.94 • 0.26× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$7.39
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
40.1 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (7 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-07-30 (13d) — day OK, swing crosses
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-24) lands before the 2026-07-30 report and is clean. The 14-DTE swing (2026-07-31) would hold through it and eat the crush. Pulling the swing in to 2026-07-24 keeps it before the report.
Volume / movement context
high volume
below supply no trigger • gap into supply
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply
$96.89–$99.90
Tight core (where 7 zones align): $98.69–$98.84 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.28
Supply top / failure
$99.90
Supply bottom / rejection
$96.89
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11H demand @ 93.591:0.28Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 92.161:0.561 test
T31D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 87.091:1.59Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply zone near $99.90, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: MSTR is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $1.94 to reach the zone, $3.01 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $3.30 runway to the target -- 1.1:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $93.59 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).

📉 GOOGL — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Textbook geometry Steady momentum Reversal: base-hold IV crush risk Puts
349.21347.08344.94342.80340.67Demand 342.80–345.61Supply 346.95–348.52Current 346.4507/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$346.45
as of 2026-07-17 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.14% • $0.49 • 0.04× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$11.07
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
42.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-22 (5 DTE) (crosses earnings)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
IV CRUSH RISK — 2026-07-22 (5d)
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-22) holds THROUGH the 2026-07-22 report -- you would pay the earnings IV premium (measured ~+40 IV points on comparable names) and give it back as crush. No weekly expiry lands before the report, so any contract here holds through it.
Volume / movement context
high volume
below supply no trigger • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1H supply
$346.95–$348.52
T1 R:R
1:0.41
Supply top / failure
$348.52
Supply bottom / rejection
$346.95
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T14H/3H/90m demand @ 345.611:0.41Fresh
T21D/3H demand @ 341.181:2.554 tests
T34H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 332.931:6.531 test
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 1H supply zone near $348.52, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: GOOGL is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Reversal geometry: $0.50 to reach the zone, $1.57 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $1.34 runway to the target -- 0.8:1. Expected move: hold this thick base and a controlled bounce to $345.61 nearby -- the validated reversal profile (backtest +0.18 avg R, ~47% win: grinding approach into a thick zone).

📈 META — Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls

Setup Grade B Steady momentum Reversal: 1:3 runway Calls
696.76677.76658.76639.76620.76Demand 626.00–634.60Supply 662.85–691.52Current 640.2507/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$640.25
as of 2026-07-17 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.88% • $5.63 • 0.18× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$30.66
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
56.8 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-22 (5 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE) (crosses earnings)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-07-29 (12d) — day OK, swing crosses
The 5-DTE day expiry (2026-07-22) lands before the 2026-07-29 report and is clean. The 14-DTE swing (2026-07-31) would hold through it and eat the crush. Pulling the swing in to 2026-07-24 keeps it before the report.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction
approaching demand grinding • gap between zones
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
90m/1H demand
$626.00–$634.60
T1 R:R
1:1.59
Demand bottom / failure
$626.00
Demand top / hold area
$634.60
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 662.851:1.59Fresh
T24H supply @ 691.751:3.61Fresh
T390m/1H supply @ 697.071:3.99Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ demand test
  • □ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
  • □ reversal candle
  • □ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bullish continuation/RBR
  • □ market context improving
Plan: If price tests and holds above the 90m/1H demand zone near $626.00, stays above the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms bullish 5m candles with increasing volume, monitor for a long toward the next supply zone.
Daily trend: META is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.68x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $5.65 to reach the zone, $8.60 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $28.25 runway to the target -- 3.3:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $28.25 to $662.85 -- a long 3.3:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.

📈 QQQ — Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls

Setup Grade B Steady momentum Reversal: 1:3 runway Calls
703.69699.11694.53689.95685.37Demand 690.74–702.11Supply 699.49–702.30Current 693.6007/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$693.60
as of 2026-07-17 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
2.73% • $18.94 • 1.28× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$14.82
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
42.0 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-22 (5 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
none upcoming
No earnings on the calendar for this name (normal for ETFs), so no IV-crush exposure to price in.
Volume / movement context
high volume
approaching demand grinding • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand
$668.90–$674.66
Tight core (where 6 zones align): $672.07–$672.88 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.24
Demand bottom / failure
$668.90
Demand top / hold area
$674.66
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T190m supply @ 699.491:0.24Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/1H supply @ 705.941:0.50Fresh
T31D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 716.251:0.92Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ demand test
  • □ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
  • □ reversal candle
  • □ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bullish continuation/RBR
  • □ market context improving
Plan: If price tests and holds above the 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand zone near $668.90, stays above the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms bullish 5m candles with increasing volume, monitor for a long toward the next supply zone.
Daily trend: QQQ is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.53x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $18.94 to reach the zone, $5.76 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $24.83 runway to the target -- 4.3:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $24.83 to $699.49 -- a long 4.3:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.

📈 UBER — Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls

Setup Grade B Steady momentum Reversal: 1:3 runway Calls
73.6773.1372.5972.0571.51Demand 71.66–73.52Supply 72.75–73.08Current 72.5507/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$72.55
as of 2026-07-17 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
3.64% • $2.64 • 1.05× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$2.52
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
48.4 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (7 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-08-05 (19d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-07-24) and swing expiry (2026-07-31) land before the 2026-08-05 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction
approaching demand grinding • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/2H/90m/1H demand
$69.56–$69.91
Tight core (where 4 zones align): $69.62–$69.69 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.07
Demand bottom / failure
$69.56
Demand top / hold area
$69.91
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11H supply @ 72.751:0.07Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 73.461:0.30Fresh
T31D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 79.081:2.18Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ demand test
  • □ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
  • □ reversal candle
  • □ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bullish continuation/RBR
  • □ market context improving
Plan: If price tests and holds above the 4H/2H/90m/1H demand zone near $69.56, stays above the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms bullish 5m candles with increasing volume, monitor for a long toward the next supply zone.
Daily trend: UBER is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 2.6x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $2.64 to reach the zone, $0.35 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $2.84 runway to the target -- 8.1:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $2.84 to $72.75 -- a long 8.1:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.

📈 QQQ — Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls

Setup Grade B Steady momentum Reversal: 1:3 runway Calls
703.69699.11694.53689.95685.37Demand 690.74–702.11Supply 699.49–702.30Current 693.6007/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$693.60
as of 2026-07-17 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.75% • $5.20 • 0.35× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$14.82
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
42.0 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-22 (5 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
none upcoming
No earnings on the calendar for this name (normal for ETFs), so no IV-crush exposure to price in.
Volume / movement context
high volume
approaching demand grinding • gap into demand
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand
$686.48–$688.40
T1 R:R
1:0.83
Demand bottom / failure
$686.48
Demand top / hold area
$688.40
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T190m supply @ 699.491:0.83Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/1H supply @ 705.941:1.73Fresh
T31D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 716.251:3.18Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ demand test
  • □ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
  • □ reversal candle
  • □ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bullish continuation/RBR
  • □ market context improving
Plan: If price tests and holds above the 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand zone near $686.48, stays above the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms bullish 5m candles with increasing volume, monitor for a long toward the next supply zone.
Daily trend: QQQ is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.53x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $5.20 to reach the zone, $1.92 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $11.09 runway to the target -- 5.8:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $11.09 to $699.49 -- a long 5.8:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.

📉 PANW — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Reversal: 1:3 runway Puts
370.70363.81356.92350.03343.14Demand 347.04–357.06Supply 361.21–362.46Current 359.3907/17 09:3007/17 15:559EMAVWAP
Latest price ~15-min delayed
$359.39
as of 2026-07-17 07:55 PM EDT — Aftermarket. Alpaca feed is 15-min delayed, so this trails the live tape by ~15-20 min; treat it as approximate for proximity, confirm the live number in your broker.
Distance to zone
0.51% • $1.83 • 0.09× ATR
How far price is from the zone, in percent, dollars, and multiples of daily ATR. The ATR multiple is the most useful -- under ~0.3x the zone is right here; a large multiple means price has to travel a lot of a typical day just to arrive.
Daily ATR
$19.46
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
67.4 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Expiry to trade (0.40 delta)
day 2026-07-24 (7 DTE)  |  swing 2026-07-31 (14 DTE)
Standardized targets (5 DTE day / 14 DTE swing), snapped to the expiries this name actually lists -- Friday-only names may land further from target than the large caps.
Earnings / IV crush
2026-08-18 (32d) — clear
Both your day expiry (2026-07-24) and swing expiry (2026-07-31) land before the 2026-08-18 report, so neither pays the earnings IV premium.
Volume / movement context
volume expansion with direction
approaching supply with strength • no meaningful gap
Is volume confirming the move? "volume expansion with direction" backtested best (+0.16 avg R); "absorption possible" was negative (-0.04) -- the move is being faded. This is the part of movement context that actually carries an edge.
Zone
90m/1H supply
$361.21–$362.46
Tight core (where 2 zones align): $362.25–$362.45 — precise level to watch inside the zone.
T1 R:R
1:0.76
Supply top / failure
$362.46
Supply bottom / rejection
$361.21
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m demand @ 357.061:0.76Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 330.301:9.49Fresh
T34H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 299.041:19.69Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 90m/1H supply zone near $362.46, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: PANW is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 3.1x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $1.82 to reach the zone, $1.25 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $4.15 runway to the target -- 3.3:1. Expected move: a sharp rejection off the zone running the full $4.15 to $357.06 -- a long 3.3:1. Bigger reward, but this 1:3 avenue was ~breakeven in backtest, so it needs the bounce to really extend, not just tag the zone.

Developing Scenario Watchlist

SymbolContractScenarioStatusSetup GradeDistanceT1 R:RR:R Range SummaryFreshnessConfirmation Checklist
COSTPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.10%1:0.08T1 1:0.08 → T3 1:2.62Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
IONQCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.14%1:0.08T1 1:0.08 → T3 1:2.00Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
MSFTPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.17%1:0.54T1 1:0.54 → T3 1:10.69Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
GOOGLCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.24%1:0.14T1 1:0.14 → T3 1:6.34Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
COSTCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.25%1:0.15T1 1:0.15 → T3 1:8.77Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
AAPLCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.26%n/aNo valid targetFresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
MSFTCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.27%1:0.14T1 1:0.14 → T3 1:3.29Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
IONQPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.29%1:0.05T1 1:0.05 → T3 1:6.20Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
TEMPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.30%1:2.27T1 1:2.27 → T3 1:9.47Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
TSLAPutsSupply Rejection — PutsAt zone: needs confirmationB0.42%1:6.00T1 1:10.39 → T3 1:23.52Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
NFLXCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsAt zone: needs confirmationB0.43%1:6.00T1 1:6.53 → T3 1:10.07One successful retest (1 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
SPYPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.46%1:0.87T1 1:0.87 → T3 1:4.70Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
MSFTCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.50%1:1.06T1 1:1.06 → T3 1:18.11Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
SPYCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.56%1:0.65T1 1:0.65 → T2 1:1.55Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
GOOGLCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsAt zone: needs confirmationB0.60%1:3.69T1 1:3.69 → T3 1:17.74One successful retest (1 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
AMDCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.60%1:1.39T1 1:1.39 → T3 1:3.44Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
AMZNPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.62%1:1.83T1 1:1.83 → T3 1:6.14Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
RKLBPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.63%1:0.77T1 1:0.77 → T3 1:4.46Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
TSLACallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsAt zone: needs confirmationB0.65%1:6.00T1 1:7.69 → T3 1:29.62Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
SHOPPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.66%1:0.44T1 1:0.44 → T3 1:2.53Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
COSTPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.67%1:2.24T1 1:2.24 → T2 1:18.29Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
SPYPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsAt zone: needs confirmationB0.71%1:6.00T1 1:7.46 → T3 1:22.67Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
UBERCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.73%1:1.15T1 1:1.15 → T3 1:26.97Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
NOWPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.80%1:1.82T1 1:1.82 → T3 1:3.27Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
MSFTPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.85%1:0.09T1 1:0.09 → T3 1:1.78Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
QQQPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.03%1:2.06T1 1:2.06 → T3 1:9.68Multiple retests (2 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
SPYPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.11%1:0.24T1 1:0.24 → T3 1:1.30Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
MSFTPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.17%1:0.75T1 1:0.75 → T3 1:10.34Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
QQQCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.25%1:1.30T1 1:1.30 → T3 1:11.91Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
AAPLPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.36%1:0.38T1 1:0.38 → T3 1:3.72Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
NOWCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.42%1:0.22T1 1:0.22 → T3 1:7.66Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
AMZNCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.42%1:1.46T1 1:1.46 → T3 1:9.94Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
MSTRCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.43%1:0.74T1 1:0.74 → T3 1:3.40Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
NOWPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.55%1:1.03T1 1:1.03 → T3 1:1.85Multiple retests (2 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
COSTCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.62%1:0.03T1 1:0.03 → T3 1:1.69Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
SNOWPutsSupply Rejection — PutsNear zone: developingB1.62%1:2.66T1 1:2.66 → T3 1:6.26Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
SOFICallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.68%1:0.63T1 1:0.63 → T3 1:2.30Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
AAPLCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.77%n/aNo valid targetFresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
SPYCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.84%1:0.16T1 1:0.16 → T2 1:0.39Multiple retests (2 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
MSFTCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.85%1:0.03T1 1:0.03 → T3 1:0.74Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving

Zone Map / Research Context

SymbolContractScenarioStatusSetup GradeDistanceT1 R:RR:R Range SummaryFreshnessConfirmation Checklist
PANWCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC0.85%n/aNo valid targetFresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
GOOGLPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC1.05%1:0.58T1 1:0.58 → T3 1:7.67Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
NFLXPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC1.17%n/aNo valid targetOne successful retest (1 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
GOOGLCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC1.52%1:0.05T1 1:0.05 → T3 1:2.09Multiple retests (4 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
CRWDCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC2.90%n/aNo valid targetFresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
GOOGLPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC3.19%1:0.00T1 1:0.00 → T3 1:2.44Multiple retests (4 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
AAPLCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC4.91%n/aNo valid targetFresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving

v0.29 separates setup quality from entry confirmation. The watchlist prepares Calls/Puts scenarios, target ladders, R:R tiers, and confirmation checklists; entry-confirmation scoring belongs to backtesting/trade review.