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Supply & Demand Scenario Watchlist — 2026-07-14

Generated: 2026-07-14 06:47 AM EDT America/New_York
Price source: latest downloaded market price; timestamp-aware overrides only
Final report filter: setup grades A+ and above, minimum T1 R:R 1:2.50
Entry-confirmation score is intentionally reserved for backtesting/trade review, not watchlist inclusion.
Latest OHLCV bar seen: 2026-07-10 03:55 PM EDT (5M regular-session source)
Current price uses the latest downloaded market bar/quote snapshot for proximity; zones are built from regular-session candles only. Candidates are excluded entirely while current price is inside any active zone because that state is unresolved consolidation/chop. Stale quote overrides are ignored when downloaded bars are newer.

Final setups

All candidates

162

Bullish / bearish

1 / 4

Avg. distance

1.71%

Excellent: 1:4+ Strong: 1:2.5–1:3.99 Acceptable: 1:2.0–1:2.49 Watch only: 1:1.5–1:1.99 Poor: <1:1.5

Quick View

Section	Symbol	Contract	Scenario	Setup Grade	Current Price	Zone	Distance	T1 R:R	R:R Range	Target Ladder
Near-Term	NOW	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	A+	$107.70	3H/90m/1H supply $108.09–$109.25	0.36%	1:4.66	T1 1:4.66 → T3 1:6.03	T1: 1D demand @ 100.48 (RR 4.66, fresh, tests 0, quality 12.8) \| T2: 1H demand @ 99.28 (RR 5.43, fresh, tests 0, quality 13.2) \| T3: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 98.36 (RR 6.03, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.6) \| T4: 3H/1H demand @ 90.23 (RR 11.27, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.3) \| T5: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 88.58 (RR 12.34, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.3)
Future	HOOD	Puts	Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts	A+	$111.99	4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand $107.56–$108.73	3.96%	1:4.86	T1 1:4.86 → T3 1:11.27	T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 101.87 (RR 4.86, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.7) \| T2: 4H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 97.10 (RR 8.94, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.4) \| T3: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 94.37 (RR 11.27, fresh, tests 0, quality 16.0) \| T4: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 89.63 (RR 15.32, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.1) \| T5: 4H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 84.61 (RR 19.62, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.1)
Near-Term	PLTR	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	A+	$126.78	1D/3H/90m/1H supply $127.72–$129.19	0.74%	1:3.79	T1 1:3.79 → T3 1:7.63	T1: 1D/1H demand @ 117.67 (RR 3.79, fresh, tests 0, quality 20.0) \| T2: 3H/90m/1H demand @ 112.83 (RR 5.80, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.7) \| T3: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 108.44 (RR 7.63, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.0)
Future	HIMS	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	A+	$34.41	4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $35.44–$35.87	3.01%	1:2.88	T1 1:2.88 → T3 1:5.92	T1: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 30.18 (RR 2.88, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.6) \| T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 27.18 (RR 4.93, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.4) \| T3: 90m/1H demand @ 25.73 (RR 5.92, fresh, tests 0, quality 9.8) \| T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m demand @ 23.88 (RR 7.18, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.1) \| T5: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 23.07 (RR 7.74, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.8)
Near-Term	SHOP	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	B	$122.53	1H demand $121.60–$121.96	0.47%	1:4.43	T1 1:4.43 → T3 1:21.37	T1: 1D/4H/90m supply @ 126.65 (RR 4.43, one_test, tests 1, quality 17.4) \| T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 131.88 (RR 10.05, fresh, tests 0, quality 20.0) \| T3: 1D supply @ 142.40 (RR 21.37, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.8) \| T4: 2H/90m supply @ 144.50 (RR 23.62, fresh, tests 0, quality 11.5) \| T5: 90m/1H supply @ 155.77 (RR 35.74, fresh, tests 0, quality 13.2)

Final / Actionable Setups

📉 NOW — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade A+ Steady momentum Puts Bearish Near-Term RBD Range-bound / insufficient Mixed / no clear structure edge Obs 62.0 Confluence 3

Current price

$107.70
as of 2026-07-10 03:55 PM EDT — RTH

Distance to zone

0.36%

Daily ATR

$5.64

Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.

Daily RSI (14)

54.9 (neutral)

Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.

Typical opening range

$2.64

Median 9:30-9:44 ET high-low range over the last 20 sessions, in dollars -- a calibration reference for whether today's actual open (once it forms) looks wide or quiet for this name.

Realistic swing target (2x ATR)

$96.42 (R:R 1:7.28)

Price if this moves 2x its daily ATR from here, and the R:R that implies against the failure level below -- a more achievable goal than a far zone-based target. At that pace: clears T1.

Historical performance

53% win rate, avg R +0.12 (N=17 historical trades) -- small sample

How this exact setup + grade combination has actually performed across the backtest's trade history -- from the same engine used to validate this strategy, not a live guarantee.

Price position

inside demand

Structure

Range-bound / insufficient
Mixed / Transition / Mixed / Transition

Trade vs structure

Mixed / no clear structure edge

Movement context

below supply no trigger
volume_expansion_with_direction • gap into supply

Watch for

Watch for failure to close above supply, upper-wick/absorption behavior, then bearish follow-through away from the zone.

Nearest demand / supply

D $101.77–$108.12
S $107.27–$107.75

Scenario

Supply Rejection — Puts

Zone

3H/90m/1H supply
$108.09–$109.25

T1 R:R

1:4.66

R:R range

T1 1:4.66 → T3 1:6.03

Supply top / failure

$109.25

Supply bottom / rejection

$108.09

Freshness

Fresh / untested (0 tests)

Confluence

3H,90m,1H

Departure strength

Weak (-0.54 ATR)

How forcefully price left this zone, in ATR multiples -- bigger means more conviction behind the move away from it.

Departure volume

Weak (0.49x avg)

Volume on the departure candle vs. its trailing 20-bar average -- bigger means more participation behind that move.

Setup quality score

7.0/10

Target ladder:

Tier	Zone	R:R	Fresh
T1	1D demand @ 100.48	1:4.66	Fresh
T2	1H demand @ 99.28	1:5.43	Fresh
T3	4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 98.36	1:6.03	Fresh

Puts confirmation checklist

□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening

Plan: If price tests and rejects the 3H/90m/1H supply zone near $109.25, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.

Daily trend: NOW is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.

Pre-market plan: Bias: Bearish (Puts). Level of interest: 108.09-109.25. Setup: Supply Rejection Watch. Confirmation required: Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening. Invalidation: 109.25. Day target: 1D demand @ 100.48 (RR 4.66, fresh, tests 0, quality 12.8) -- R:R 4.66. Swing target: 1H demand @ 99.28 (RR 5.43, fresh, tests 0, quality 13.2) -- R:R 5.43. Day target is 1.28x daily atr away; swing target is 1.49x daily atr away. Contract expiration and position size: not available (no account-equity/options-chain data in this system).

Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.66x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.39 to reach the zone, $1.16 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $7.61 runway to the target -- 6.6:1. Not textbook reversal shape: the zone is thin relative to the target (6.6x -- backtest: thin-zone reversals averaged negative; a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway). Prior move: grinding -- the slow, controlled approach that historically preceded the zone holds that worked (+0.08 avg R vs negative for every other move character).

📉 HOOD — Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts

Setup Grade A+ Puts Bearish Future DBR/RBR Aligned bullish Counter-structure Obs 53.7 Confluence 5

Current price

$111.99
as of 2026-07-10 03:55 PM EDT — RTH

Distance to zone

3.96%

Daily ATR

$6.87

Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.

Daily RSI (14)

61.5 (neutral)

Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.

Typical opening range

$3.63

Median 9:30-9:44 ET high-low range over the last 20 sessions, in dollars -- a calibration reference for whether today's actual open (once it forms) looks wide or quiet for this name.

Realistic swing target (2x ATR)

$98.25 (R:R 1:4.22)

Price if this moves 2x its daily ATR from here, and the R:R that implies against the failure level below -- a more achievable goal than a far zone-based target. At that pace: clears T1.

Historical performance

32% win rate, avg R -0.03 (N=41 historical trades)

How this exact setup + grade combination has actually performed across the backtest's trade history -- from the same engine used to validate this strategy, not a live guarantee.

Price position

inside demand

Structure

Aligned bullish
Bullish HH/HL / Mixed / Transition

Trade vs structure

Counter-structure

Movement context

above demand no trigger
high_volume • gap into demand

Watch for

Watch for strong RTH close below demand, opening-volume confirmation, and hold/retest below the zone.

Nearest demand / supply

D $109.09–$112.73
S $112.23–$118.65

Scenario

Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts

Zone

4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand
$107.56–$108.73

T1 R:R

1:4.86

R:R range

T1 1:4.86 → T3 1:11.27

Demand top / risk area

$108.73

Demand bottom / breakdown

$107.56

Freshness

Fresh / untested (0 tests)

Confluence

4H,3H,2H,90m,1H

Departure strength

Excellent (2.09 ATR)

How forcefully price left this zone, in ATR multiples -- bigger means more conviction behind the move away from it.

Departure volume

Excellent (2.23x avg)

Volume on the departure candle vs. its trailing 20-bar average -- bigger means more participation behind that move.

Setup quality score

10.0/10

Target ladder:

Tier	Zone	R:R	Fresh
T1	1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 101.87	1:4.86	Fresh
T2	4H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 97.10	1:8.94	Fresh
T3	1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 94.37	1:11.27	Fresh

Puts confirmation checklist

□ 5M close below demand
□ hold/retest below zone
□ volume expands on break or continuation
□ below 9EMA/VWAP
□ lower-low or lower-high structure

Plan: Watch for a confirmed 5m close below the 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand breakdown level near $107.56, followed by continuation below 9EMA/VWAP with volume. The broken demand zone becomes the risk area; targets are the next demand zones below.

Daily trend: HOOD is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.

Pre-market plan: Bias: Bearish (Puts). Level of interest: 107.56-108.73. Setup: Demand Breakdown Watch. Confirmation required: Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure. Invalidation: 108.73. Day target: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 101.87 (RR 4.86, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.7) -- R:R 4.86. Swing target: 4H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 97.10 (RR 8.94, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.4) -- R:R 8.94. Day target is 1.47x daily atr away; swing target is 2.17x daily atr away. Contract expiration and position size: not available (no account-equity/options-chain data in this system).

Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 2.17x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Trade geometry: $4.43 approach to the trigger, $1.17 zone thickness (the stop), $5.69 runway to the next zone -- 4.9:1 at the trigger, 1.47x daily ATR total. Not textbook geometry: the approach alone burns 0.64x daily ATR before entry; the full move is 1.47x daily ATR -- more than a typical day delivers.

📉 PLTR — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade A+ Puts Bearish Near-Term DBD/RBD Mixed structure Counter-structure Obs 48.3 Confluence 4

Current price

$126.78
as of 2026-07-10 03:55 PM EDT — RTH

Distance to zone

0.74%

Daily ATR

$7.11

Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.

Daily RSI (14)

48.1 (neutral)

Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.

Typical opening range

$3.20

Median 9:30-9:44 ET high-low range over the last 20 sessions, in dollars -- a calibration reference for whether today's actual open (once it forms) looks wide or quiet for this name.

Realistic swing target (2x ATR)

$112.55 (R:R 1:5.90)

Price if this moves 2x its daily ATR from here, and the R:R that implies against the failure level below -- a more achievable goal than a far zone-based target. At that pace: clears T1.

Historical performance

53% win rate, avg R +0.12 (N=17 historical trades) -- small sample

How this exact setup + grade combination has actually performed across the backtest's trade history -- from the same engine used to validate this strategy, not a live guarantee.

Price position

inside demand

Structure

Mixed structure
Bullish HH/HL / Mixed / Transition

Trade vs structure

Counter-structure

Movement context

below supply no trigger
absorption_possible • gap into demand

Watch for

Watch for failure to close above supply, upper-wick/absorption behavior, then bearish follow-through away from the zone.

Nearest demand / supply

D $125.64–$126.85
S $127.06–$127.42

Scenario

Supply Rejection — Puts

Zone

1D/3H/90m/1H supply
$127.72–$129.19

T1 R:R

1:3.79

R:R range

T1 1:3.79 → T3 1:7.63

Supply top / failure

$129.19

Supply bottom / rejection

$127.72

Freshness

Fresh / untested (0 tests)

Confluence

1D,3H,90m,1H

Departure strength

Weak (-0.39 ATR)

How forcefully price left this zone, in ATR multiples -- bigger means more conviction behind the move away from it.

Departure volume

Weak (0.7x avg)

Volume on the departure candle vs. its trailing 20-bar average -- bigger means more participation behind that move.

Setup quality score

8.6/10

Target ladder:

Tier	Zone	R:R	Fresh
T1	1D/1H demand @ 117.67	1:3.79	Fresh
T2	3H/90m/1H demand @ 112.83	1:5.80	Fresh
T3	4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 108.44	1:7.63	Fresh

Puts confirmation checklist

□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening

Plan: If price tests and rejects the 1D/3H/90m/1H supply zone near $129.19, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.

Daily trend: PLTR is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading above its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.

Pre-market plan: Bias: Bearish (Puts). Level of interest: 127.72-129.19. Setup: Supply Rejection Watch. Confirmation required: Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening. Invalidation: 129.19. Day target: 1D/1H demand @ 117.67 (RR 3.79, fresh, tests 0, quality 20.0) -- R:R 3.79. Swing target: 3H/90m/1H demand @ 112.83 (RR 5.80, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.7) -- R:R 5.8. Day target is 1.28x daily atr away; swing target is 1.96x daily atr away. Contract expiration and position size: not available (no account-equity/options-chain data in this system).

Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.96x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.94 to reach the zone, $1.47 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $10.05 runway to the target -- 6.8:1. Not textbook reversal shape: the zone is thin relative to the target (6.8x -- backtest: thin-zone reversals averaged negative; a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway).

📉 HIMS — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade A+ Puts Bearish Future DBD/RBD Aligned bullish Counter-structure Obs 65.0 Confluence 4

Current price

$34.41
as of 2026-07-10 03:55 PM EDT — RTH

Distance to zone

3.01%

Daily ATR

$2.66

Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.

Daily RSI (14)

55.7 (neutral)

Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.

Typical opening range

$1.31

Median 9:30-9:44 ET high-low range over the last 20 sessions, in dollars -- a calibration reference for whether today's actual open (once it forms) looks wide or quiet for this name.

Realistic swing target (2x ATR)

$29.09 (R:R 1:3.64)

Price if this moves 2x its daily ATR from here, and the R:R that implies against the failure level below -- a more achievable goal than a far zone-based target. At that pace: clears T1.

Historical performance

53% win rate, avg R +0.12 (N=17 historical trades) -- small sample

How this exact setup + grade combination has actually performed across the backtest's trade history -- from the same engine used to validate this strategy, not a live guarantee.

Price position

inside demand

Structure

Aligned bullish
Bullish HH/HL / Mixed / Transition

Trade vs structure

Counter-structure

Movement context

approaching supply with strength
high_volume • gap into demand

Watch for

Watch for failure to close above supply, upper-wick/absorption behavior, then bearish follow-through away from the zone.

Nearest demand / supply

D $30.36–$34.68
S $35.44–$35.87

Scenario

Supply Rejection — Puts

Zone

4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply
$35.44–$35.87

T1 R:R

1:2.88

R:R range

T1 1:2.88 → T3 1:5.92

Supply top / failure

$35.87

Supply bottom / rejection

$35.44

Freshness

Fresh / untested (0 tests)

Confluence

4H,3H,2H,90m,1H

Departure strength

Moderate (-1.22 ATR)

How forcefully price left this zone, in ATR multiples -- bigger means more conviction behind the move away from it.

Departure volume

Average (0.95x avg)

Volume on the departure candle vs. its trailing 20-bar average -- bigger means more participation behind that move.

Setup quality score

10.0/10

Target ladder:

Tier	Zone	R:R	Fresh
T1	4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 30.18	1:2.88	Fresh
T2	1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 27.18	1:4.93	Fresh
T3	90m/1H demand @ 25.73	1:5.92	Fresh

Puts confirmation checklist

□ supply test
□ rejection candle
□ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
□ bearish continuation/DBD
□ downside volume response
□ market context weakening

Plan: If price tests and rejects the 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply zone near $35.87, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.

Daily trend: HIMS is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.

Pre-market plan: Bias: Bearish (Puts). Level of interest: 35.44-35.87. Setup: Supply Rejection Watch. Confirmation required: Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening. Invalidation: 35.87. Day target: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 30.18 (RR 2.88, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.6) -- R:R 2.88. Swing target: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 27.18 (RR 4.93, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.4) -- R:R 4.93. Day target is 1.59x daily atr away; swing target is 2.72x daily atr away. Contract expiration and position size: not available (no account-equity/options-chain data in this system).

Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 1.59x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $1.03 to reach the zone, $0.43 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $5.26 runway to the target -- 12.2:1. Not textbook reversal shape: the zone is thin relative to the target (12.2x -- backtest: thin-zone reversals averaged negative; a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway). Prior move caution: directional -- in backtest, zones hit with a fast or one-way move broke more often than they held.

📈 SHOP — Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls

Setup Grade B Calls Bullish Near-Term RBR Mixed structure Mixed / no clear structure edge Obs 75.3

Current price

$122.53
as of 2026-07-10 03:55 PM EDT — RTH

Distance to zone

0.47%

Daily ATR

$5.98

Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.

Daily RSI (14)

59.5 (neutral)

Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.

Typical opening range

$3.17

Median 9:30-9:44 ET high-low range over the last 20 sessions, in dollars -- a calibration reference for whether today's actual open (once it forms) looks wide or quiet for this name.

Realistic swing target (2x ATR)

$134.48 (R:R 1:12.85)

Price if this moves 2x its daily ATR from here, and the R:R that implies against the failure level below -- a more achievable goal than a far zone-based target. At that pace: clears T1.

Historical performance

40% win rate, avg R +0.04 (N=178 historical trades)

How this exact setup + grade combination has actually performed across the backtest's trade history -- from the same engine used to validate this strategy, not a live guarantee.

Price position

inside supply

Structure

Mixed structure
Mixed / Transition / Mixed / Transition

Trade vs structure

Mixed / no clear structure edge

Movement context

approaching demand with weakness
volume_expansion_with_direction • gap into supply

Watch for

Watch for demand tap, absorption or lower-wick rejection, reclaim of demand top, then bullish follow-through.

Nearest demand / supply

D $121.60–$121.96
S $121.87–$125.54

Scenario

Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls

Zone

1H demand
$121.60–$121.96

T1 R:R

1:4.43

R:R range

T1 1:4.43 → T3 1:21.37

Demand bottom / failure

$121.60

Demand top / hold area

$121.96

Freshness

Fresh / untested (0 tests)

Confluence

Departure strength

Weak (0.31 ATR)

How forcefully price left this zone, in ATR multiples -- bigger means more conviction behind the move away from it.

Departure volume

Weak (0.7x avg)

Volume on the departure candle vs. its trailing 20-bar average -- bigger means more participation behind that move.

Setup quality score

4.5/10

Target ladder:

Tier	Zone	R:R	Fresh
T1	1D/4H/90m supply @ 126.65	1:4.43	1 test
T2	1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 131.88	1:10.05	Fresh
T3	1D supply @ 142.40	1:21.37	Fresh

Calls confirmation checklist

□ demand test
□ selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone
□ reversal candle
□ reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP
□ bullish continuation/RBR
□ market context improving

Plan: If price tests and holds above the 1H demand zone near $121.60, stays above the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms bullish 5m candles with increasing volume, monitor for a long toward the next supply zone.

Daily trend: SHOP is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.

Pre-market plan: Bias: Bullish (Calls). Level of interest: 121.6-121.96. Setup: Demand Hold/Reversal Watch. Confirmation required: Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving. Invalidation: 121.6. Day target: 1D/4H/90m supply @ 126.65 (RR 4.43, one_test, tests 1, quality 17.4) -- R:R 4.43. Swing target: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 131.88 (RR 10.05, fresh, tests 0, quality 20.0) -- R:R 10.05. Day target is 0.69x daily atr away; swing target is 1.56x daily atr away. Contract expiration and position size: not available (no account-equity/options-chain data in this system).

Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.56x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.57 to reach the zone, $0.36 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $4.69 runway to the target -- 13.0:1. Not textbook reversal shape: the zone is thin relative to the target (13.0x -- backtest: thin-zone reversals averaged negative; a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway). Prior move caution: directional -- in backtest, zones hit with a fast or one-way move broke more often than they held.

Developing Scenario Watchlist

Symbol	Contract	Scenario	Status	Setup Grade	Distance	T1 R:R	R:R Range Summary	Freshness	Confirmation Checklist
SNOW	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.05%	1:0.41	T1 1:0.41 → T2 1:1.63	One successful retest (1 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
UBER	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.05%	1:1.40	T1 1:1.40 → T3 1:31.00	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
APP	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.07%	1:1.14	T1 1:1.14 → T3 1:12.51	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
NET	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.07%	1:0.07	T1 1:0.07 → T2 1:0.64	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
CRM	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	At zone: needs confirmation	B	0.07%	1:2.75	T1 1:2.75 → T3 1:8.98	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
META	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	At zone: needs confirmation	B	0.08%	1:3.07	T1 1:3.07 → T3 1:5.07	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
CRWD	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	At zone: needs confirmation	B	0.10%	1:6.00	T1 1:16.75 → T3 1:44.94	One successful retest (1 tests)	Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
INTC	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.11%	1:0.46	T1 1:0.46 → T3 1:48.63	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
MSFT	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.13%	1:0.14	T1 1:0.14 → T3 1:1.05	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
NET	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.16%	1:0.05	T1 1:0.05 → T3 1:5.53	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
AAPL	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.16%	n/a	No valid target	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
PANW	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	At zone: needs confirmation	B	0.19%	1:5.74	T1 1:5.74 → T3 1:16.03	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
UBER	Calls	Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.20%	1:2.45	T1 1:2.45 → T3 1:66.09	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
HOOD	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.21%	1:0.49	T1 1:0.49 → T3 1:2.24	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
INTC	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.22%	1:0.02	T1 1:0.02 → T3 1:2.28	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
PLTR	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	At zone: needs confirmation	B	0.22%	1:6.00	T1 1:14.35 → T3 1:28.89	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
SPY	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.22%	n/a	No valid target	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
AVGO	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	At zone: needs confirmation	B	0.24%	1:4.93	T1 1:4.93 → T3 1:28.83	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
UBER	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.28%	1:0.05	T1 1:0.05 → T3 1:5.79	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
QQQ	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.29%	1:2.23	T1 1:2.23	One successful retest (1 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
NVDA	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	At zone: needs confirmation	B	0.30%	1:6.00	T1 1:6.36 → T3 1:18.98	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
TSLA	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.30%	1:1.52	T1 1:1.52 → T3 1:9.72	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
NFLX	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	At zone: needs confirmation	B	0.34%	1:2.50	T1 1:2.50 → T3 1:7.47	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
ASTS	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.34%	1:0.73	T1 1:0.73 → T3 1:2.83	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
CRWD	Calls	Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls	At zone: needs confirmation	B	0.38%	1:6.00	T1 1:17.11	One successful retest (1 tests)	Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
ANET	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.38%	n/a	No valid target	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
AMD	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.43%	1:0.75	T1 1:0.75 → T2 1:3.38	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
MSFT	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.43%	1:0.10	T1 1:0.10 → T3 1:6.39	One successful retest (1 tests)	Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
INTC	Calls	Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls	At zone: needs confirmation	B	0.47%	1:4.95	T1 1:4.95 → T3 1:71.93	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
PLTR	Calls	Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.50%	1:0.83	T1 1:0.83 → T3 1:37.67	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
PANW	Puts	Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts	At zone: needs confirmation	B	0.54%	1:2.90	T1 1:2.90 → T3 1:26.83	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
APP	Puts	Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.55%	1:1.60	T1 1:1.60 → T3 1:20.33	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
SPY	Puts	Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.56%	1:1.07	T1 1:1.07 → T3 1:8.42	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
UBER	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.56%	1:0.06	T1 1:0.06 → T3 1:1.43	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
AVGO	Calls	Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.57%	1:1.85	T1 1:1.85 → T3 1:59.62	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
NVDA	Puts	Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts	At zone: needs confirmation	B	0.58%	1:6.00	T1 1:9.10 → T3 1:35.40	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
APP	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.62%	1:0.02	T1 1:0.02 → T3 1:1.54	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
QQQ	Puts	Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.63%	1:0.90	T1 1:0.90 → T3 1:5.64	One successful retest (1 tests)	Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
SHOP	Puts	Demand Breakdown / Continuation — Puts	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.76%	1:1.86	T1 1:1.86 → T3 1:36.11	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
RBLX	Calls	Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	B	0.85%	1:2.39	T1 1:2.39 → T3 1:30.11	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure

Zone Map / Research Context

Symbol	Contract	Scenario	Status	Setup Grade	Distance	T1 R:R	R:R Range Summary	Freshness	Confirmation Checklist
GOOGL	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	At zone: needs confirmation	C	0.31%	1:2.64	T1 1:2.64 → T3 1:5.97	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
SPY	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	C	2.19%	n/a	No valid target	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
GOOGL	Puts	Supply Rejection — Puts	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	C	2.47%	1:0.83	T1 1:0.83 → T3 1:1.87	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
AAPL	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	C	3.08%	n/a	No valid target	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
SPY	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	C	3.45%	n/a	No valid target	Multiple retests (2 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
ANET	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	C	4.41%	n/a	No valid target	Fresh / untested (0 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
GOOGL	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	C	4.41%	1:0.05	T1 1:0.05 → T3 1:0.90	Multiple retests (4 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
SPY	Calls	Demand Reversal / Hold — Calls	Blocked: nearest zone limits R:R	C	4.61%	n/a	No valid target	One successful retest (1 tests)	Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving

v0.29 separates setup quality from entry confirmation. The watchlist prepares Calls/Puts scenarios, target ladders, R:R tiers, and confirmation checklists; entry-confirmation scoring belongs to backtesting/trade review.