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Supply & Demand Scenario Watchlist — 2026-07-14

Generated: 2026-07-14 06:43 AM EDT America/New_York
Price source: latest downloaded market price; timestamp-aware overrides only
Final report filter: setup grades A+ and above, minimum T1 R:R 1:2.50
Entry-confirmation score is intentionally reserved for backtesting/trade review, not watchlist inclusion.
Latest OHLCV bar seen: 2026-07-08 03:55 PM EDT (5M regular-session source)
Current price uses the latest downloaded market bar/quote snapshot for proximity; zones are built from regular-session candles only. Candidates are excluded entirely while current price is inside any active zone because that state is unresolved consolidation/chop. Stale quote overrides are ignored when downloaded bars are newer.
Final setups
10
All candidates
164
Bullish / bearish
1 / 9
Avg. distance
2.53%
Excellent: 1:4+ Strong: 1:2.5–1:3.99 Acceptable: 1:2.0–1:2.49 Watch only: 1:1.5–1:1.99 Poor: <1:1.5

Quick View

SectionSymbolContractScenarioSetup GradeCurrent PriceZoneDistanceT1 R:RR:R RangeTarget Ladder
Near-TermQQQCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsA+$711.302H/1H supply $712.36–$713.870.36%1:4.01T1 1:4.01 → T2 1:14.50T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 719.93 (RR 4.01, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.9) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 735.76 (RR 14.50, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.4)
FutureRBLXPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$55.104H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply $56.44–$58.892.43%1:1.99T1 1:1.99 → T2 1:3.03T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 47.56 (RR 1.99, fresh, tests 0, quality 19.4) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 43.63 (RR 3.03, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.3)
FutureGOOGLPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$361.641D/90m supply $376.37–$378.564.07%1:0.03T1 1:0.03 → T3 1:1.70T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 361.18 (RR 0.03, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.3) | T2: 1D/3H demand @ 341.18 (RR 1.21, multiple_tests, tests 4, quality -999.0, soft obstacle: 4plus_tests) | T3: 4H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 332.93 (RR 1.70, one_test, tests 1, quality 12.6) | T4: 1H demand @ 321.26 (RR 2.39, fresh, tests 0, quality 13.3) | T5: 2H/1H demand @ 319.56 (RR 2.49, fresh, tests 0, quality 10.5)
FutureHOODPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$113.541D/1H supply $119.13–$120.884.92%1:0.11T1 1:0.11 → T3 1:1.59T1: 4H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 112.73 (RR 0.11, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.6) | T2: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 108.73 (RR 0.66, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.4) | T3: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 101.87 (RR 1.59, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.7) | T4: 4H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 97.10 (RR 2.24, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.4) | T5: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 94.37 (RR 2.61, fresh, tests 0, quality 16.0)
FutureTSLAPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$393.922H/90m/1H supply $402.88–$405.112.27%1:0.02T1 1:0.02 → T3 1:3.53T1: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 393.72 (RR 0.02, multiple_tests, tests 2, quality 8.9) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 382.58 (RR 1.01, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.6) | T3: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 354.42 (RR 3.53, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.3) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 346.91 (RR 4.20, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.6) | T5: 1D demand @ 322.08 (RR 6.42, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.9)
ImmediatePANWPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$320.552H/1H supply $321.05–$323.000.16%1:6.00T1 1:8.78 → T3 1:16.22T1: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 299.04 (RR 8.78, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.4) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 293.56 (RR 11.02, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.9) | T3: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 280.82 (RR 16.22, multiple_tests, tests 3, quality 7.4) | T4: 2H/1H demand @ 271.85 (RR 19.88, one_test, tests 1, quality 7.7) | T5: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 265.15 (RR 22.61, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.7)
Near-TermSOFIPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$17.744H/3H/2H/1H supply $18.08–$18.221.92%1:0.40T1 1:0.40 → T3 1:4.79T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m demand @ 17.55 (RR 0.40, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.9) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 16.59 (RR 2.40, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.4) | T3: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 15.44 (RR 4.79, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.8)
FutureSMCIPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$28.183H/90m/1H supply $29.30–$29.913.99%1:0.44T1 1:0.44 → T3 1:2.71T1: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 27.41 (RR 0.44, fresh, tests 0, quality 16.7) | T2: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 25.13 (RR 1.76, fresh, tests 0, quality 16.0) | T3: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 23.47 (RR 2.71, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.3) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 22.45 (RR 3.30, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.7)
FutureCRWDPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$191.074H/3H/2H/1H supply $197.72–$200.393.48%1:0.20T1 1:0.20 → T3 1:2.95T1: 4H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 189.24 (RR 0.20, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.3) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 175.27 (RR 1.70, fresh, tests 0, quality 19.0) | T3: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 163.57 (RR 2.95, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.7) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 155.25 (RR 3.84, one_test, tests 1, quality 15.3) | T5: 3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 153.00 (RR 4.08, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.5)
Near-TermCRWDPutsSupply Rejection — PutsB$191.071H supply $194.34–$195.821.71%1:0.39T1 1:0.39 → T3 1:5.79T1: 4H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 189.24 (RR 0.39, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.3) | T2: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 175.27 (RR 3.33, fresh, tests 0, quality 19.0) | T3: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 163.57 (RR 5.79, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.7) | T4: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 155.25 (RR 7.54, one_test, tests 1, quality 15.3) | T5: 3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 153.00 (RR 8.01, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.5)

Final / Actionable Setups

📈 QQQ — Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls

Setup Grade A+ Textbook geometry Calls Bullish Near-Term DBD/RBD Mixed structure With structure Obs 73.0 Confluence 3
728.28721.44714.60707.76700.92Demand 702.81–707.13Supply 712.36–713.87Current 711.3007/10 09:3007/10 15:559EMAVWAP
Current price
$711.30
as of 2026-07-08 03:55 PM EDT — RTH
Distance to zone
0.36%
Daily ATR
$16.61
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
47.9 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
RSI neutral (backtest: 34% win rate, -0.14 avg R in this bucket)
Typical opening range
$4.50
Median 9:30-9:44 ET high-low range over the last 20 sessions, in dollars -- a calibration reference for whether today's actual open (once it forms) looks wide or quiet for this name.
Realistic swing target (2x ATR)
$744.52 (R:R 1:31.34)
Price if this moves 2x its daily ATR from here, and the R:R that implies against the failure level below -- a more achievable goal than a far zone-based target. At that pace: clears T1.
Historical performance
46% win rate, avg R +0.39 (N=46 historical trades)
How this exact setup + grade combination has actually performed across the backtest's trade history -- from the same engine used to validate this strategy, not a live guarantee.
Price position
between nearest demand and supply
Structure
Mixed structure
Range-bound / Bullish HH/HL
Trade vs structure
With structure
Movement context
below supply no trigger
high_volume • no meaningful gap
Watch for
Watch for a strong RTH close above supply, opening-volume confirmation, and hold/retest above the zone.
Nearest demand / supply
D $702.81–$707.13
S $712.36–$713.87
Scenario
Supply Breakout / Continuation — Calls
Zone
2H/1H supply
$712.36–$713.87
T1 R:R
1:4.01
R:R range
T1 1:4.01 → T2 1:14.50
Supply bottom / risk area
$712.36
Supply top / breakout
$713.87
Freshness
Fresh / untested (0 tests)
Confluence
2H,1H
Departure strength
Weak (-0.53 ATR)
How forcefully price left this zone, in ATR multiples -- bigger means more conviction behind the move away from it.
Departure volume
Average (1.02x avg)
Volume on the departure candle vs. its trailing 20-bar average -- bigger means more participation behind that move.
Setup quality score
6.5/10
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 719.931:4.01Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 735.761:14.50Fresh
Calls confirmation checklist
  • □ 5M close above supply
  • □ hold/retest above zone
  • □ volume expands on break or continuation
  • □ above 9EMA/VWAP
  • □ higher-high or higher-low structure
Plan: Watch for a confirmed 5m close above the 2H/1H supply breakout level near $713.87, followed by continuation above 9EMA/VWAP with volume. The broken supply zone becomes the risk area; targets are the next supply zones above.
Daily trend: QQQ is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Pre-market plan: Bias: Bullish (Calls). Level of interest: 712.36-713.87. Setup: Supply Breakout Watch. Confirmation required: Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure. Invalidation: 712.36. Day target: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 719.93 (RR 4.01, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.9) -- R:R 4.01. Swing target: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply @ 735.76 (RR 14.50, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.4) -- R:R 14.5. Day target is 0.52x daily atr away; swing target is 1.47x daily atr away. Contract expiration and position size: not available (no account-equity/options-chain data in this system).
Trade shape: Day-trade-shaped: no qualifying target sits far enough away (>= 1.5x daily ATR) to plan around a multi-day hold. Trade geometry: $2.57 approach to the trigger, $1.51 zone thickness (the stop), $6.06 runway to the next zone -- 4.0:1 at the trigger, 0.52x daily ATR total. Textbook day-trade geometry: short approach, day-sized move, and runway well past the stop (backtest: +0.30 avg R vs +0.05 for everything else).

📉 RBLX — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Steady momentum Puts Bearish Future DBD/RBD Mixed structure Mixed / no clear structure edge Obs 61.0 Confluence 12
59.3257.7756.2354.6853.13Demand 53.56–55.25Supply 56.44–58.89Current 55.1007/10 09:3007/10 15:559EMAVWAP
Current price
$55.10
as of 2026-07-08 03:55 PM EDT — RTH
Distance to zone
2.43%
Daily ATR
$3.76
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
59.9 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Typical opening range
$1.63
Median 9:30-9:44 ET high-low range over the last 20 sessions, in dollars -- a calibration reference for whether today's actual open (once it forms) looks wide or quiet for this name.
Realistic swing target (2x ATR)
$47.57 (R:R 1:1.99)
Price if this moves 2x its daily ATR from here, and the R:R that implies against the failure level below -- a more achievable goal than a far zone-based target. At that pace: 100% of the way to T1.
Historical performance
40% win rate, avg R -0.04 (N=162 historical trades)
How this exact setup + grade combination has actually performed across the backtest's trade history -- from the same engine used to validate this strategy, not a live guarantee.
Price position
inside demand
Structure
Mixed structure
Mixed / Transition / Mixed / Transition
Trade vs structure
Mixed / no clear structure edge
Movement context
approaching supply grinding
high_volume • gap into demand
Watch for
Watch for failure to close above supply, upper-wick/absorption behavior, then bearish follow-through away from the zone.
Nearest demand / supply
D $53.56–$55.25
S $56.44–$58.89
Scenario
Supply Rejection — Puts
Zone
4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply
$56.44–$58.89
T1 R:R
1:1.99
R:R range
T1 1:1.99 → T2 1:3.03
Supply top / failure
$58.89
Supply bottom / rejection
$56.44
Freshness
Fresh / untested (0 tests)
Confluence
4H,3H,2H,90m,1H
Departure strength
Moderate (-1.42 ATR)
How forcefully price left this zone, in ATR multiples -- bigger means more conviction behind the move away from it.
Departure volume
Weak (0.36x avg)
Volume on the departure candle vs. its trailing 20-bar average -- bigger means more participation behind that move.
Setup quality score
8.6/10
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 47.561:1.99Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 43.631:3.03Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H supply zone near $58.89, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: RBLX is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Pre-market plan: Bias: Bearish (Puts). Level of interest: 56.44-58.89. Setup: Supply Rejection Watch. Confirmation required: Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening. Invalidation: 58.89. Day target: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 47.56 (RR 1.99, fresh, tests 0, quality 19.4) -- R:R 1.99. Swing target: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 43.63 (RR 3.03, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.3) -- R:R 3.03. Day target is 2.0x daily atr away; swing target is 3.05x daily atr away. Note: estimated R:R is below the configured minimum (2.5) -- not a final actionable setup as-is. Contract expiration and position size: not available (no account-equity/options-chain data in this system).
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 1 is 2.0x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $1.34 to reach the zone, $2.45 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $8.88 runway to the target -- 3.6:1. Not textbook reversal shape: the zone is thin relative to the target (3.6x -- backtest: thin-zone reversals averaged negative; a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway). Prior move: grinding -- the slow, controlled approach that historically preceded the zone holds that worked (+0.08 avg R vs negative for every other move character).

📉 GOOGL — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Steady momentum Puts Bearish Future DBD/RBD Range-bound / insufficient Mixed / no clear structure edge Obs 61.0 Confluence 2
363.37359.89356.40352.92349.44Demand 350.40–361.18Supply 361.02–362.41Current 361.6407/10 09:3007/10 15:559EMAVWAP
Current price
$361.64
as of 2026-07-08 03:55 PM EDT — RTH
Distance to zone
4.07%
Daily ATR
$11.84
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
50.3 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Typical opening range
$5.18
Median 9:30-9:44 ET high-low range over the last 20 sessions, in dollars -- a calibration reference for whether today's actual open (once it forms) looks wide or quiet for this name.
Realistic swing target (2x ATR)
$337.95 (R:R 1:1.40)
Price if this moves 2x its daily ATR from here, and the R:R that implies against the failure level below -- a more achievable goal than a far zone-based target. At that pace: clears T1.
Historical performance
40% win rate, avg R -0.04 (N=162 historical trades)
How this exact setup + grade combination has actually performed across the backtest's trade history -- from the same engine used to validate this strategy, not a live guarantee.
Price position
inside supply
Structure
Range-bound / insufficient
Range-bound / Mixed / Transition
Trade vs structure
Mixed / no clear structure edge
Movement context
approaching supply grinding
high_volume • gap into supply
Watch for
Watch for failure to close above supply, upper-wick/absorption behavior, then bearish follow-through away from the zone.
Nearest demand / supply
D $350.40–$361.18
S $361.02–$362.41
Scenario
Supply Rejection — Puts
Zone
1D/90m supply
$376.37–$378.56
T1 R:R
1:0.03
R:R range
T1 1:0.03 → T3 1:1.70
Supply top / failure
$378.56
Supply bottom / rejection
$376.37
Freshness
Fresh / untested (0 tests)
Confluence
1D,90m
Departure strength
Strong (-1.72 ATR)
How forcefully price left this zone, in ATR multiples -- bigger means more conviction behind the move away from it.
Departure volume
Excellent (1.84x avg)
Volume on the departure candle vs. its trailing 20-bar average -- bigger means more participation behind that move.
Setup quality score
10.0/10
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 361.181:0.03Fresh
T21D/3H demand @ 341.181:1.214 tests
T34H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 332.931:1.701 test
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 1D/90m supply zone near $378.56, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: GOOGL is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading above its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Pre-market plan: Bias: Bearish (Puts). Level of interest: 376.37-378.56. Setup: Supply Rejection Watch. Confirmation required: Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening. Invalidation: 378.56. Day target: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 361.18 (RR 0.03, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.3) -- R:R 0.03. Swing target: 1D/3H demand @ 341.18 (RR 1.21, multiple_tests, tests 4, quality -999.0, soft obstacle: 4plus_tests) -- R:R 1.21. Day target is 0.04x daily atr away; swing target is 1.73x daily atr away. Note: estimated R:R is below the configured minimum (2.5) -- not a final actionable setup as-is. Contract expiration and position size: not available (no account-equity/options-chain data in this system).
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.73x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $14.73 to reach the zone, $2.19 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $15.19 runway to the target -- 6.9:1. Not textbook reversal shape: still 1.24x daily ATR from the zone; the zone is thin relative to the target (6.9x -- backtest: thin-zone reversals averaged negative; a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway). Prior move: grinding -- the slow, controlled approach that historically preceded the zone holds that worked (+0.08 avg R vs negative for every other move character).

📉 HOOD — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Steady momentum Puts Bearish Future RBD Aligned bullish Counter-structure Obs 38.0 Confluence 2
120.28117.20114.12111.04107.96Demand 109.09–112.73Supply 114.68–116.10Current 113.5407/10 09:3007/10 15:559EMAVWAP
Current price
$113.54
as of 2026-07-08 03:55 PM EDT — RTH
Distance to zone
4.92%
Daily ATR
$7.15
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
64.5 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Typical opening range
$3.44
Median 9:30-9:44 ET high-low range over the last 20 sessions, in dollars -- a calibration reference for whether today's actual open (once it forms) looks wide or quiet for this name.
Realistic swing target (2x ATR)
$99.23 (R:R 1:1.95)
Price if this moves 2x its daily ATR from here, and the R:R that implies against the failure level below -- a more achievable goal than a far zone-based target. At that pace: clears T1.
Historical performance
40% win rate, avg R -0.04 (N=162 historical trades)
How this exact setup + grade combination has actually performed across the backtest's trade history -- from the same engine used to validate this strategy, not a live guarantee.
Price position
between nearest demand and supply
Structure
Aligned bullish
Bullish HH/HL / Mixed / Transition
Trade vs structure
Counter-structure
Movement context
approaching supply grinding
high_volume • no meaningful gap
Watch for
Watch for failure to close above supply, upper-wick/absorption behavior, then bearish follow-through away from the zone.
Nearest demand / supply
D $109.09–$112.73
S $114.68–$116.10
Scenario
Supply Rejection — Puts
Zone
1D/1H supply
$119.13–$120.88
T1 R:R
1:0.11
R:R range
T1 1:0.11 → T3 1:1.59
Supply top / failure
$120.88
Supply bottom / rejection
$119.13
Freshness
One successful retest (1 tests)
Confluence
1D,1H
Departure strength
Excellent (-2.06 ATR)
How forcefully price left this zone, in ATR multiples -- bigger means more conviction behind the move away from it.
Departure volume
Excellent (1.68x avg)
Volume on the departure candle vs. its trailing 20-bar average -- bigger means more participation behind that move.
Setup quality score
8.7/10
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T14H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 112.731:0.11Fresh
T24H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 108.731:0.66Fresh
T31D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 101.871:1.59Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 1D/1H supply zone near $120.88, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: HOOD is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Pre-market plan: Bias: Bearish (Puts). Level of interest: 119.13-120.88. Setup: Supply Rejection Watch. Confirmation required: Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening. Invalidation: 120.88. Day target: 4H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 112.73 (RR 0.11, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.6) -- R:R 0.11. Swing target: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 108.73 (RR 0.66, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.4) -- R:R 0.66. Day target is 0.11x daily atr away; swing target is 0.67x daily atr away. Note: estimated R:R is below the configured minimum (2.5) -- not a final actionable setup as-is. Contract expiration and position size: not available (no account-equity/options-chain data in this system).
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.63x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $5.59 to reach the zone, $1.75 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $6.40 runway to the target -- 3.7:1. Not textbook reversal shape: still 0.78x daily ATR from the zone; the zone is thin relative to the target (3.7x -- backtest: thin-zone reversals averaged negative; a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway). Prior move: grinding -- the slow, controlled approach that historically preceded the zone holds that worked (+0.08 avg R vs negative for every other move character).

📉 TSLA — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Steady momentum Puts Bearish Future DBD Mixed structure Mixed / no clear structure edge Obs 76.3 Confluence 2
415.07408.15401.23394.31387.39Demand 389.30–393.72Supply 393.79–395.60Current 393.9207/10 09:3007/10 15:559EMAVWAP
Current price
$393.92
as of 2026-07-08 03:55 PM EDT — RTH
Distance to zone
2.27%
Daily ATR
$20.36
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
47.1 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Typical opening range
$7.41
Median 9:30-9:44 ET high-low range over the last 20 sessions, in dollars -- a calibration reference for whether today's actual open (once it forms) looks wide or quiet for this name.
Realistic swing target (2x ATR)
$353.20 (R:R 1:3.64)
Price if this moves 2x its daily ATR from here, and the R:R that implies against the failure level below -- a more achievable goal than a far zone-based target. At that pace: clears T1.
Historical performance
40% win rate, avg R -0.04 (N=162 historical trades)
How this exact setup + grade combination has actually performed across the backtest's trade history -- from the same engine used to validate this strategy, not a live guarantee.
Price position
inside supply
Structure
Mixed structure
Mixed / Transition / Mixed / Transition
Trade vs structure
Mixed / no clear structure edge
Movement context
approaching supply grinding
volume_expansion_with_direction • gap into supply
Watch for
Watch for failure to close above supply, upper-wick/absorption behavior, then bearish follow-through away from the zone.
Nearest demand / supply
D $389.30–$393.72
S $393.79–$395.60
Scenario
Supply Rejection — Puts
Zone
2H/90m/1H supply
$402.88–$405.11
T1 R:R
1:0.02
R:R range
T1 1:0.02 → T3 1:3.53
Supply top / failure
$405.11
Supply bottom / rejection
$402.88
Freshness
Fresh / untested (0 tests)
Confluence
2H,90m,1H
Departure strength
Weak (-0.96 ATR)
How forcefully price left this zone, in ATR multiples -- bigger means more conviction behind the move away from it.
Departure volume
Average (0.97x avg)
Volume on the departure candle vs. its trailing 20-bar average -- bigger means more participation behind that move.
Setup quality score
6.7/10
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T14H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 393.721:0.022 tests
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 382.581:1.01Fresh
T31D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 354.421:3.53Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 2H/90m/1H supply zone near $405.11, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: TSLA is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Pre-market plan: Bias: Bearish (Puts). Level of interest: 402.88-405.11. Setup: Supply Rejection Watch. Confirmation required: Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening. Invalidation: 405.11. Day target: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 393.72 (RR 0.02, multiple_tests, tests 2, quality 8.9) -- R:R 0.02. Swing target: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 382.58 (RR 1.01, fresh, tests 0, quality 18.6) -- R:R 1.01. Day target is 0.01x daily atr away; swing target is 0.56x daily atr away. Note: estimated R:R is below the configured minimum (2.5) -- not a final actionable setup as-is. Contract expiration and position size: not available (no account-equity/options-chain data in this system).
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.94x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $8.96 to reach the zone, $2.23 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $9.16 runway to the target -- 4.1:1. Not textbook reversal shape: the zone is thin relative to the target (4.1x -- backtest: thin-zone reversals averaged negative; a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway). Prior move: grinding -- the slow, controlled approach that historically preceded the zone holds that worked (+0.08 avg R vs negative for every other move character).

📉 PANW — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Puts Bearish Immediate DBD/RBD Aligned bullish Counter-structure Obs 62.7 Confluence 2
343.68330.82317.95305.09292.23Demand 295.78–299.04Supply 321.05–323.00Current 320.5507/10 09:3007/10 15:559EMAVWAP
Current price
$320.55
as of 2026-07-08 03:55 PM EDT — RTH
Distance to zone
0.16%
Daily ATR
$16.10
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
58.9 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Typical opening range
$7.16
Median 9:30-9:44 ET high-low range over the last 20 sessions, in dollars -- a calibration reference for whether today's actual open (once it forms) looks wide or quiet for this name.
Realistic swing target (2x ATR)
$288.36 (R:R 1:13.14)
Price if this moves 2x its daily ATR from here, and the R:R that implies against the failure level below -- a more achievable goal than a far zone-based target. At that pace: clears T1.
Historical performance
40% win rate, avg R -0.04 (N=162 historical trades)
How this exact setup + grade combination has actually performed across the backtest's trade history -- from the same engine used to validate this strategy, not a live guarantee.
Price position
between nearest demand and supply
Structure
Aligned bullish
Bullish HH/HL / Mixed / Transition
Trade vs structure
Counter-structure
Movement context
approaching supply with strength
high_volume • no meaningful gap
Watch for
Watch for failure to close above supply, upper-wick/absorption behavior, then bearish follow-through away from the zone.
Nearest demand / supply
D $295.78–$299.04
S $321.05–$323.00
Scenario
Supply Rejection — Puts
Zone
2H/1H supply
$321.05–$323.00
T1 R:R
1:6.00
R:R range
T1 1:8.78 → T3 1:16.22
Supply top / failure
$323.00
Supply bottom / rejection
$321.05
Freshness
One successful retest (1 tests)
Confluence
2H,1H
Departure strength
Weak (-0.31 ATR)
How forcefully price left this zone, in ATR multiples -- bigger means more conviction behind the move away from it.
Departure volume
Weak (0.79x avg)
Volume on the departure candle vs. its trailing 20-bar average -- bigger means more participation behind that move.
Setup quality score
4.1/10
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T14H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 299.041:8.78Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 293.561:11.02Fresh
T34H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 280.821:16.223 tests
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 2H/1H supply zone near $323.00, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: PANW is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Pre-market plan: Bias: Bearish (Puts). Level of interest: 321.05-323.0. Setup: Supply Rejection Watch. Confirmation required: Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening. Invalidation: 323.0. Day target: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 299.04 (RR 8.78, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.4) -- R:R 8.78. Swing target: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 293.56 (RR 11.02, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.9) -- R:R 11.02. Day target is 1.34x daily atr away; swing target is 1.68x daily atr away. Contract expiration and position size: not available (no account-equity/options-chain data in this system).
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.68x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.50 to reach the zone, $1.95 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $22.01 runway to the target -- 11.3:1. Not textbook reversal shape: the zone is thin relative to the target (11.3x -- backtest: thin-zone reversals averaged negative; a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway). Prior move caution: directional -- in backtest, zones hit with a fast or one-way move broke more often than they held.

📉 SOFI — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Puts Bearish Near-Term DBD/RBD Aligned bullish Counter-structure Obs 68.0 Confluence 5
19.9719.1318.2817.4316.59Demand 16.82–17.55Supply 17.75–17.92Current 17.7407/10 09:3007/10 15:559EMAVWAP
Current price
$17.74
as of 2026-07-08 03:55 PM EDT — RTH
Distance to zone
1.92%
Daily ATR
$0.95
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
52.5 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Typical opening range
$0.50
Median 9:30-9:44 ET high-low range over the last 20 sessions, in dollars -- a calibration reference for whether today's actual open (once it forms) looks wide or quiet for this name.
Realistic swing target (2x ATR)
$15.85 (R:R 1:3.94)
Price if this moves 2x its daily ATR from here, and the R:R that implies against the failure level below -- a more achievable goal than a far zone-based target. At that pace: clears T1.
Historical performance
40% win rate, avg R -0.04 (N=162 historical trades)
How this exact setup + grade combination has actually performed across the backtest's trade history -- from the same engine used to validate this strategy, not a live guarantee.
Price position
between nearest demand and supply
Structure
Aligned bullish
Bullish HH/HL / Mixed / Transition
Trade vs structure
Counter-structure
Movement context
approaching supply with strength
volume_expansion_with_direction • no meaningful gap
Watch for
Watch for failure to close above supply, upper-wick/absorption behavior, then bearish follow-through away from the zone.
Nearest demand / supply
D $16.82–$17.55
S $17.75–$17.92
Scenario
Supply Rejection — Puts
Zone
4H/3H/2H/1H supply
$18.08–$18.22
T1 R:R
1:0.40
R:R range
T1 1:0.40 → T3 1:4.79
Supply top / failure
$18.22
Supply bottom / rejection
$18.08
Freshness
Fresh / untested (0 tests)
Confluence
4H,3H,2H,1H
Departure strength
Weak (-0.69 ATR)
How forcefully price left this zone, in ATR multiples -- bigger means more conviction behind the move away from it.
Departure volume
Weak (0.83x avg)
Volume on the departure candle vs. its trailing 20-bar average -- bigger means more participation behind that move.
Setup quality score
8.0/10
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m demand @ 17.551:0.40Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 16.591:2.40Fresh
T31D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 15.441:4.79Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 4H/3H/2H/1H supply zone near $18.22, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: SOFI is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Pre-market plan: Bias: Bearish (Puts). Level of interest: 18.08-18.22. Setup: Supply Rejection Watch. Confirmation required: Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening. Invalidation: 18.22. Day target: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m demand @ 17.55 (RR 0.40, fresh, tests 0, quality 15.9) -- R:R 0.4. Swing target: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 16.59 (RR 2.40, fresh, tests 0, quality 17.4) -- R:R 2.4. Day target is 0.2x daily atr away; swing target is 1.22x daily atr away. Note: estimated R:R is below the configured minimum (2.5) -- not a final actionable setup as-is. Contract expiration and position size: not available (no account-equity/options-chain data in this system).
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 2.43x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $0.34 to reach the zone, $0.14 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $0.53 runway to the target -- 3.8:1. Not textbook reversal shape: the zone is thin relative to the target (3.8x -- backtest: thin-zone reversals averaged negative; a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway). Prior move caution: directional -- in backtest, zones hit with a fast or one-way move broke more often than they held.

📉 SMCI — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Puts Bearish Future DBD/RBD Aligned bullish Counter-structure Obs 62.2 Confluence 4
29.5128.4127.3126.2125.11Demand 25.41–27.41Supply 27.93–29.21Current 28.1807/10 09:3007/10 15:559EMAVWAP
Current price
$28.18
as of 2026-07-08 03:55 PM EDT — RTH
Distance to zone
3.99%
Daily ATR
$2.50
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
42.9 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Typical opening range
$0.91
Median 9:30-9:44 ET high-low range over the last 20 sessions, in dollars -- a calibration reference for whether today's actual open (once it forms) looks wide or quiet for this name.
Realistic swing target (2x ATR)
$23.18 (R:R 1:2.89)
Price if this moves 2x its daily ATR from here, and the R:R that implies against the failure level below -- a more achievable goal than a far zone-based target. At that pace: clears T1.
Historical performance
40% win rate, avg R -0.04 (N=162 historical trades)
How this exact setup + grade combination has actually performed across the backtest's trade history -- from the same engine used to validate this strategy, not a live guarantee.
Price position
inside supply
Structure
Aligned bullish
Bullish HH/HL / Bullish HH/HL
Trade vs structure
Counter-structure
Movement context
approaching supply with strength
volume_expansion_with_direction • gap into supply
Watch for
Watch for failure to close above supply, upper-wick/absorption behavior, then bearish follow-through away from the zone.
Nearest demand / supply
D $25.41–$27.41
S $27.93–$29.21
Scenario
Supply Rejection — Puts
Zone
3H/90m/1H supply
$29.30–$29.91
T1 R:R
1:0.44
R:R range
T1 1:0.44 → T3 1:2.71
Supply top / failure
$29.91
Supply bottom / rejection
$29.30
Freshness
Fresh / untested (0 tests)
Confluence
3H,90m,1H
Departure strength
Moderate (-1.08 ATR)
How forcefully price left this zone, in ATR multiples -- bigger means more conviction behind the move away from it.
Departure volume
Weak (0.59x avg)
Volume on the departure candle vs. its trailing 20-bar average -- bigger means more participation behind that move.
Setup quality score
8.2/10
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T11D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 27.411:0.44Fresh
T24H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 25.131:1.76Fresh
T31D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 23.471:2.71Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 3H/90m/1H supply zone near $29.91, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: SMCI is in a range-bound/mixed daily trend (Mixed / Transition), trading below its 20-day average and below its 50-day average.
Pre-market plan: Bias: Bearish (Puts). Level of interest: 29.3-29.91. Setup: Supply Rejection Watch. Confirmation required: Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening. Invalidation: 29.91. Day target: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 27.41 (RR 0.44, fresh, tests 0, quality 16.7) -- R:R 0.44. Swing target: 4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 25.13 (RR 1.76, fresh, tests 0, quality 16.0) -- R:R 1.76. Day target is 0.31x daily atr away; swing target is 1.22x daily atr away. Note: estimated R:R is below the configured minimum (2.5) -- not a final actionable setup as-is. Contract expiration and position size: not available (no account-equity/options-chain data in this system).
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 3 is 1.89x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $1.12 to reach the zone, $0.61 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $1.89 runway to the target -- 3.1:1. Not textbook reversal shape: the zone is thin relative to the target (3.1x -- backtest: thin-zone reversals averaged negative; a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway). Prior move caution: impulsive -- in backtest, zones hit with a fast or one-way move broke more often than they held.

📉 CRWD — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Puts Bearish Future DBD/RBD Mixed structure Mixed / no clear structure edge Obs 77.0 Confluence 8
198.92195.58192.24188.90185.56Demand 190.61–193.98Supply 194.34–195.82Current 191.0707/10 09:3007/10 15:559EMAVWAP
Current price
$191.07
as of 2026-07-08 03:55 PM EDT — RTH
Distance to zone
3.48%
Daily ATR
$8.99
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
64.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Typical opening range
$5.23
Median 9:30-9:44 ET high-low range over the last 20 sessions, in dollars -- a calibration reference for whether today's actual open (once it forms) looks wide or quiet for this name.
Realistic swing target (2x ATR)
$173.08 (R:R 1:1.93)
Price if this moves 2x its daily ATR from here, and the R:R that implies against the failure level below -- a more achievable goal than a far zone-based target. At that pace: clears T1.
Historical performance
40% win rate, avg R -0.04 (N=162 historical trades)
How this exact setup + grade combination has actually performed across the backtest's trade history -- from the same engine used to validate this strategy, not a live guarantee.
Price position
inside demand
Structure
Mixed structure
Mixed / Transition / Mixed / Transition
Trade vs structure
Mixed / no clear structure edge
Movement context
approaching supply with strength
absorption_possible • gap into demand
Watch for
Watch for failure to close above supply, upper-wick/absorption behavior, then bearish follow-through away from the zone.
Nearest demand / supply
D $190.61–$193.98
S $194.34–$195.82
Scenario
Supply Rejection — Puts
Zone
4H/3H/2H/1H supply
$197.72–$200.39
T1 R:R
1:0.20
R:R range
T1 1:0.20 → T3 1:2.95
Supply top / failure
$200.39
Supply bottom / rejection
$197.72
Freshness
Fresh / untested (0 tests)
Confluence
4H,3H,2H,1H
Departure strength
Weak (-0.79 ATR)
How forcefully price left this zone, in ATR multiples -- bigger means more conviction behind the move away from it.
Departure volume
Weak (0.67x avg)
Volume on the departure candle vs. its trailing 20-bar average -- bigger means more participation behind that move.
Setup quality score
8.0/10
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T14H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 189.241:0.20Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 175.271:1.70Fresh
T31D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 163.571:2.95Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 4H/3H/2H/1H supply zone near $200.39, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: CRWD is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Pre-market plan: Bias: Bearish (Puts). Level of interest: 197.72-200.39. Setup: Supply Rejection Watch. Confirmation required: Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening. Invalidation: 200.39. Day target: 4H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 189.24 (RR 0.20, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.3) -- R:R 0.2. Swing target: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 175.27 (RR 1.70, fresh, tests 0, quality 19.0) -- R:R 1.7. Day target is 0.2x daily atr away; swing target is 1.76x daily atr away. Note: estimated R:R is below the configured minimum (2.5) -- not a final actionable setup as-is. Contract expiration and position size: not available (no account-equity/options-chain data in this system).
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.76x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $6.65 to reach the zone, $2.67 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $8.48 runway to the target -- 3.2:1. Not textbook reversal shape: still 0.74x daily ATR from the zone; the zone is thin relative to the target (3.2x -- backtest: thin-zone reversals averaged negative; a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway). Prior move caution: directional -- in backtest, zones hit with a fast or one-way move broke more often than they held.

📉 CRWD — Supply Rejection — Puts

Setup Grade B Puts Bearish Near-Term DBD Mixed structure Mixed / no clear structure edge Obs 77.0
198.92195.58192.24188.90185.56Demand 190.61–193.98Supply 194.34–195.82Current 191.0707/10 09:3007/10 15:559EMAVWAP
Current price
$191.07
as of 2026-07-08 03:55 PM EDT — RTH
Distance to zone
1.71%
Daily ATR
$8.99
Average daily price range over the last 14 sessions -- use it to judge how far a target really is in real terms, not just percent.
Daily RSI (14)
64.2 (neutral)
Relative Strength Index over the last 14 daily sessions -- 70+ is often read as overbought, 30 or below as oversold. Informational only, not used to grade or filter setups.
Typical opening range
$5.23
Median 9:30-9:44 ET high-low range over the last 20 sessions, in dollars -- a calibration reference for whether today's actual open (once it forms) looks wide or quiet for this name.
Realistic swing target (2x ATR)
$173.08 (R:R 1:3.79)
Price if this moves 2x its daily ATR from here, and the R:R that implies against the failure level below -- a more achievable goal than a far zone-based target. At that pace: clears T1.
Historical performance
40% win rate, avg R -0.04 (N=162 historical trades)
How this exact setup + grade combination has actually performed across the backtest's trade history -- from the same engine used to validate this strategy, not a live guarantee.
Price position
inside demand
Structure
Mixed structure
Mixed / Transition / Mixed / Transition
Trade vs structure
Mixed / no clear structure edge
Movement context
approaching supply with strength
absorption_possible • gap into demand
Watch for
Watch for failure to close above supply, upper-wick/absorption behavior, then bearish follow-through away from the zone.
Nearest demand / supply
D $190.61–$193.98
S $194.34–$195.82
Scenario
Supply Rejection — Puts
Zone
1H supply
$194.34–$195.82
T1 R:R
1:0.39
R:R range
T1 1:0.39 → T3 1:5.79
Supply top / failure
$195.82
Supply bottom / rejection
$194.34
Freshness
Fresh / untested (0 tests)
Confluence
1H
Departure strength
Moderate (-1.31 ATR)
How forcefully price left this zone, in ATR multiples -- bigger means more conviction behind the move away from it.
Departure volume
Excellent (1.51x avg)
Volume on the departure candle vs. its trailing 20-bar average -- bigger means more participation behind that move.
Setup quality score
6.3/10
Target ladder:
TierZoneR:RFresh
T14H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 189.241:0.39Fresh
T21D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 175.271:3.33Fresh
T31D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 163.571:5.79Fresh
Puts confirmation checklist
  • □ supply test
  • □ rejection candle
  • □ lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP
  • □ bearish continuation/DBD
  • □ downside volume response
  • □ market context weakening
Plan: If price tests and rejects the 1H supply zone near $195.82, stays below the open, 9EMA, and VWAP, and forms lower lows on the 5m with downside volume, monitor for a short toward the next demand zone.
Daily trend: CRWD is in a bullish daily trend (Bullish HH/HL), trading above its 20-day average and above its 50-day average.
Pre-market plan: Bias: Bearish (Puts). Level of interest: 194.34-195.82. Setup: Supply Rejection Watch. Confirmation required: Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening. Invalidation: 195.82. Day target: 4H/3H/2H/1H demand @ 189.24 (RR 0.39, fresh, tests 0, quality 14.3) -- R:R 0.39. Swing target: 1D/4H/3H/2H/90m/1H demand @ 175.27 (RR 3.33, fresh, tests 0, quality 19.0) -- R:R 3.33. Day target is 0.2x daily atr away; swing target is 1.76x daily atr away. Note: estimated R:R is below the configured minimum (2.5) -- not a final actionable setup as-is. Contract expiration and position size: not available (no account-equity/options-chain data in this system).
Trade shape: Swing-shaped: target 2 is 1.76x daily ATR away with elevated volume support -- more likely to need multiple days than one. Reversal geometry: $3.27 to reach the zone, $1.48 zone thickness (the base you're standing on; stop beyond its far side), $5.10 runway to the target -- 3.5:1. Not textbook reversal shape: the zone is thin relative to the target (3.5x -- backtest: thin-zone reversals averaged negative; a bounce wants a thick base, not a big runway). Prior move caution: directional -- in backtest, zones hit with a fast or one-way move broke more often than they held.

Developing Scenario Watchlist

SymbolContractScenarioStatusSetup GradeDistanceT1 R:RR:R Range SummaryFreshnessConfirmation Checklist
COINCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.03%1:1.34T1 1:1.34 → T3 1:7.30One successful retest (1 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
UBERPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.03%1:0.03T1 1:0.03 → T3 1:2.52Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
SOFIPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.06%1:1.06T1 1:1.06 → T3 1:12.78One successful retest (1 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
SPYCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.07%1:0.25T1 1:0.25 → T2 1:2.19Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
UBERCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.08%1:0.01T1 1:0.01 → T3 1:2.86Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
RKLBPutsSupply Rejection — PutsAt zone: needs confirmationB0.08%1:6.00T1 1:15.35 → T3 1:26.78Multiple retests (3 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
AMZNPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.10%1:0.47T1 1:0.47 → T3 1:2.66Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
MSFTPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.11%1:0.37T1 1:0.37 → T3 1:20.11Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
QQQPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.15%1:1.62T1 1:1.62 → T3 1:8.91Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
MSFTCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.15%1:0.05T1 1:0.05 → T3 1:1.20Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
SPYPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.18%1:0.05T1 1:0.05 → T3 1:1.45Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
CRMCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.19%1:2.38T1 1:2.38 → T3 1:14.29Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
SNOWCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.26%1:0.15T1 1:0.15 → T3 1:1.67Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
HIMSPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.33%1:1.64T1 1:1.64 → T3 1:20.16Multiple retests (3 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
MSFTCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.39%1:2.04T1 1:2.04 → T3 1:11.96Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
AAPLCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.43%n/aNo valid targetFresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
COSTCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.44%1:0.60T1 1:0.60 → T3 1:5.42Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
COSTPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.49%1:0.25T1 1:0.25 → T3 1:1.52Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
NFLXPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.50%1:0.92T1 1:0.92 → T3 1:2.65Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
NVDACallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.51%1:1.73T1 1:1.73 → T3 1:10.82Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
AVGOCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.52%1:0.65T1 1:0.65 → T3 1:3.33Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
SNOWPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.54%1:0.23T1 1:0.23 → T3 1:7.98Multiple retests (2 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
QQQCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.59%1:0.12T1 1:0.12 → T3 1:2.88Multiple retests (2 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
CRMPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.67%1:1.80T1 1:1.80 → T3 1:18.51Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
METACallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.72%1:1.85T1 1:1.85 → T3 1:10.03Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
SPYPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.72%1:0.34T1 1:0.34 → T3 1:4.13Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
PANWCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsNear zone: developingB0.76%1:6.00T1 1:11.28 → T2 1:15.96One successful retest (1 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
AMDPutsSupply Rejection — PutsNear zone: developingB0.79%1:4.02T1 1:4.02 → T3 1:13.67One successful retest (1 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
COSTPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.82%1:0.61T1 1:0.61 → T3 1:23.00Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
ASTSPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.83%1:0.26T1 1:0.26 → T3 1:2.37Multiple retests (2 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
NOWCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.84%1:0.65T1 1:0.65 → T3 1:3.07Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
ASTSCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.89%1:0.35T1 1:0.35 → T3 1:4.03Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
SPYCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.94%1:0.16T1 1:0.16 → T2 1:1.44Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
MSFTPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB0.96%1:0.08T1 1:0.08 → T3 1:4.27Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
HOODPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.00%1:0.32T1 1:0.32 → T3 1:4.56Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
SOFICallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.01%1:0.94T1 1:0.94 → T3 1:11.53One successful retest (1 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
COSTCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.06%1:0.40T1 1:0.40 → T3 1:3.61Fresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
SPYPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.09%1:0.00T1 1:0.00 → T3 1:15.30Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
NVDAPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsNear zone: developingB1.09%1:3.76T1 1:3.76 → T3 1:15.12Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
APPPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RB1.13%1:1.28T1 1:1.28 → T3 1:3.94Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening

Zone Map / Research Context

SymbolContractScenarioStatusSetup GradeDistanceT1 R:RR:R Range SummaryFreshnessConfirmation Checklist
RKLBCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC0.76%1:1.60T1 1:1.60 → T3 1:19.54Multiple retests (3 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
AVGOPutsSupply Rejection — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC0.94%1:0.32T1 1:0.32 → T3 1:8.52Multiple retests (2 tests)Puts: supply test; rejection candle; lose/hold below 9EMA and VWAP; bearish continuation/DBD; downside volume response; market context weakening
AVGOCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC1.65%1:0.56T1 1:0.56 → T3 1:7.65Multiple retests (2 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
AAPLCallsDemand Reversal / Hold — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC2.44%n/aNo valid targetFresh / untested (0 tests)Calls: demand test; selling volume fades or stabilizes into zone; reversal candle; reclaim/hold 9EMA and VWAP; bullish continuation/RBR; market context improving
GOOGLPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC3.11%1:0.86T1 1:0.86 → T3 1:2.70Fresh / untested (0 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure
RKLBCallsSupply Breakout / Continuation — CallsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC3.68%1:0.00T1 1:0.00 → T3 1:5.73One successful retest (1 tests)Calls: 5M close above supply; hold/retest above zone; volume expands on break or continuation; above 9EMA/VWAP; higher-high or higher-low structure
PLTRPutsDemand Breakdown / Continuation — PutsBlocked: nearest zone limits R:RC4.98%1:0.00T1 1:0.00 → T3 1:10.59Multiple retests (2 tests)Puts: 5M close below demand; hold/retest below zone; volume expands on break or continuation; below 9EMA/VWAP; lower-low or lower-high structure

v0.29 separates setup quality from entry confirmation. The watchlist prepares Calls/Puts scenarios, target ladders, R:R tiers, and confirmation checklists; entry-confirmation scoring belongs to backtesting/trade review.